Another Six Nations tournament is done and once again time to pick over the forward stats from a Scottish point of view. This time we’ll include all Scottish forwards who played more than a collective 40 minutes over the 5 games and we’ll look at carrying, tackling and both positive and negative impacts. We’ll also have some comparisons with the top performers across all teams to gauge how our players stacked up. Stats are all taken from the 6N official site.
Carrying Stats
There are two really easy callouts on this chart and both are up amongst the major positives Scotland can take from the tournament. Jack Dempsey’s carrying was on a different level to pretty much everyone else in the Scotland pack. Other than Pierre Schoeman who I’ll talk about in a minute and Jonny Gray who impressively got through a lot of work in the last two games nobody else carried more often per 80 and Dempsey was far more effective than everyone else as well averaging around 7 metres per carry.
If we take a look at the tournament’s top forward carriers below (minimum 100 minutes played with the size of the circle representing the number of minutes played) then Dempsey is right up with the likes of Ireland’s Dan Sheehan and not far off the seriously impressive Lorenzo Cannone of Italy. There are also some impressive numbers from second rows Flament and Chessum too – who both carried more often than any Scottish lock bar Jonny Gray and significantly more effectively as well, up at around 6m per carry.
Schoeman on the other hand didn’t go as far in the carry: on average down at around 4m but he offered himself to make those metres at a rate of just under an unbelievable 16 times per 80 minutes. Again we can compare him to the opposition (minimum 100 minutes again). Ellis Genge and Cyril Baille also feature, showing that Schoeman isn’t the only loosehead who can compete with the back rows that are more common on the chart, and though those back rows may have made more metres per carry nobody can match Schoeman’s workrate. France’s Alldritt, Italy’s Negri, Ireland’s Doris and Wales’ Faletau all show up well as the carrying workhorses in their respective packs. Even the much-maligned Alex Dombrandt is not bad either.
Schoeman and Dempsey have been serious additions to the Scotland pack and provide really strong carrying power from loosehead and number 8 respectively to a degree that previous incumbents haven’t been able to offer.
Others including Watson, Turner, both Fagersons and Jonny Gray all worked hard during the tournament and got through their share but Schoeman and Dempsey’s numbers stand up against anyone else’s in the tournament. I see a fair few comments not impressed with Jonny Gray and Watson and though the latter didn’t play a huge amount they both stack up reasonably well statistically
Perhaps if you don’t have the pinball-style mega carries the rest aren’t as eye-catching.
On a slightly more negative note the contributions of Richie Gray and Gilchrist were both poor when it came to carrying and though they’ve definitely enough else to their game to ensure they’ll both be back in the mix for starting spots, this is a clear area for improvement for the second row.
Did Jonny Gray do enough to suggest it should be him and one from the other two to give us a better balance in the boiler house?
He was not the strongest carrier in terms of metres made but he did put his hand up often and carried hard into traffic during the France, Ireland and Italy games he featured most in.
Personally I’m leaning towards the brothers Gray as our best combination now with Richie’s set-piece ability and Gray’s work-rate looking a good combination. If we could unearth a second row who carried as much as Gray but a bit more powerfully, making a couple more metres on average per-carry it would be a major plus equivalent to the impact Schoeman and Dempsey have had in their positions.
Tackle Stats
| Nation | Tackles Made | Tackles Missed | Tackle Success % |
| England | 706 | 147 | 83% |
| France | 822 | 102 | 89% |
| Ireland | 705 | 121 | 85% |
| Italy | 694 | 127 | 85% |
| Scotland | 831 | 78 | 91% |
| Wales | 742 | 144 | 84% |
Moving onto more defensive stats and first of all, the effort in this aspect of the game from Scotland’s forwards was pretty outrageous as you can see above. No set of forwards made more tackles and no pack missed less either. Scotland’s success in the first two games was built on very solid defence and high workrate off the ball from the forwards and even as the tournament drew on and tougher opposition materialised in France and then Ireland the pack were able to maintain an extremely high level here and it’s a major strength of the team.
There used to be a time when Jonny Gray and Hamish Watson would wow with their 100% success rates in the tackle. Impressively 7 players were able to maintain such a high level during the tournament and only a single player dropped below 90%. If you’re looking for Jonny Gray he came in for Grant Gilchrist to start the last two matches and picked up almost exactly where Gilchrist left off with both averaging around 17 per 80 with none missed and Jonny is tucked in underneath his fellow lock on the chart.
A word also for Ewan Ashman who didn’t play enough minutes to make the chart but also managed 100% making 11 tackles in just 30 minutes during the rearguard effort against Italy, that sort of impact will bode well for his future prospects. George Turner is a really dynamic player who provides a lot of upside but has been near the bottom of Scotland’s tackle success percentages after both the Autumn and 6 Nations tournaments. Ashman is equally as powerful a carrier and offering a stronger defensive contribution could give him the edge if he wants to usurp the current first-choice hooker.
Moving on, if Dempsey’s carrying impact perhaps wasn’t surprising given that’s what he’s renowned for afterall, a serious bonus for Scotland was his impact in defence. 55 tackles at a 98% success rate and at a rate of just under 19 per 80 minutes is seriously impressive. After the Autumn Nations I thought Fagerson would be hard to shift from the 8 shirt because of his workrate on both sides of the ball but Dempsey has stepped into that position and made the shirt his own without a doubt. He’s added power to our carrying game with no let-up in graft.
A quick look at the best defenders in the tournament (minimum 50 tackles and 90% success rate and this time the size of the circle indicates the number of tackles):
Matt Fagerson may have been overshadowed a bit by Dempsey but he still led the tournament with 83 successful tackles so unsurprisingly does well here with Dempsey, Ritchie and Gray also featuring, a tackle success rate just under 94% isn’t bad at all and provides some good context for how strong some of the other performances on this chart are.
Cannone had a brilliant tournament and again shows up well as do several other unsurprising names like the excellent James Ryan and Josh van der Flier of Ireland and Thibaud Flament who was monstrously dynamic in the French second row.
Positive Impacts
For the next two areas we’ll focus purely on Scotland. As in the Autumn, Jamie Ritchie carried the majority of the team’s turnover threat leading the way with 5 and he also pitched in with his share of other impacts to lead the team in terms of positive actions. There was actually a reasonable spread of turnovers across all the forwards and unsurprisingly given their carrying stats both Schoeman and Dempsey left some bruised shoulders with 7 and 8 broken tackles respectively.
Again unsurprisingly given their roles in the side and eye-catching dynamism George Turner and Matt Fagerson provided a good amount of impact on both sides of the ball but I’ve got to mention Jonny Gray here as well. Gilchrist and brother Richie clearly provide a big upside for Scotland with their experience and line out ability but I think Jonny made a good effort towards putting his best foot forward in their absence. We’ve already seen his defence was as solid as usual and he put his hand up to carry often and where the metres were the hardest to make in the tight. But he’s also contributed significantly in terms of dominant tackles with a team-leading 6 and a couple of turnovers and offloads to boot. He even broke a tackle as well!
Negative Impacts
Matt Fagerson made an impressive attempt to rack up his penalty count off the bench against Italy, he was squeaky clean in terms of errors in the Autumn but he’s not had the same luck in the Six Nations matching Jamie Ritchie with 16 negative impacts, and he’ll need to reverse that trend if he wants the 8 shirt back off Dempsey in the future. Both he and Ritchie I’m sure will be focused on cutting out these errors going forwards, Ritchie will always cop a few at the breakdown but will be frustrated to have been penalised for dissent and marched back by the referee on more than one occasion, though he’s learning as captain all the time and in general I believe conducts himself well. The tight 5 collectively did well here, Turner carries hard and often so the handling errors are perhaps to be expected but everyone else kept the errors to a minimum. Schoeman and Zander Fagerson got through a lot of minutes and mountains of work and rarely made mistakes and keeping the scrum penalties down to 2 apiece is impressive as well. The scrum finished on a high against Italy.
Summary
In my opinion, the end result of this tournament was about where we expected. A little way off France and Ireland but better than the rest for now. I do think though that there are several positives and additionally some work-ons that we can identify. Starting with the positives:
- Dempsey stepped up to the plate as a top class 8. Whether it was ball in hand or in defence Dempsey’s impact stacks up against the best in the tournament and he looks cemented in as first choice 8 now.
- Matt Fagerson might have lost the 8 shirt for now but he’s still one of our best players and Luke Crosbie didn’t look out of place either. Factor in Rory Darge on the injury comeback trail and depth in the back row looks really strong.
- Collectively as a defensive unit the pack is outstanding and this should give us a really strong foundation to build on. The stats available don’t always shine a light on the set piece in the same way but the scrum whilst Fagerson and Schoeman are on has been very good and the lineout when Richie Gray is playing looks stable too.
In terms of the work-ons:
- I think the dependence on the starting props is a concern. In terms of props, only Andrew Porter played more minutes than Schoeman (probably also indicating a similar reliance for Ireland). On the other side of the scrum Zander Fagerson played 250 of the 320 minutes possible, after missing the opening game against England. Both played well throughout the tournament but there is a clear drop-off when they’re replaced – never more clear than their early removal against Ireland in the 53rd minute.
WP Nel is still fine at scrum time but his carrying stats are some way off Fagerson. Both Bhatti and Berghan look solid at best off the bench to me – fine against most but not really showing evidence of being strong impact players able to pick up where Fagerson or Schoeman leave off when we need to go toe to toe with the likes of Ireland or South Africa for 80 minutes.
At loosehead a fully fit and firing Rory Sutherland would be a real plus point on the bench as would Oli Kebble finding his best form. Kebble is a giant of a man and at his best was a real force in both the scrum and in the loose so fingers crossed he comes again. At tighthead the cupboard looks bare but I think we can only hope that Murphy Walker can return to fitness and gets the gametime needed to build on his early promise. He can both scrummage destructively and be dynamic in the loose so would add to the bench if he carries on fulfilling his potential.
- I called out the second row as an area of potential improvement after the Autumn Nations and I’m still not sure we’ve got enough from this area. Richie Gray’s return has been very welcome and he’s nailed on, the set piece functions so much better with him in the side and he generally puts himself about enough so one slot is sorted. But Gilchrist I’m more dubious of, maybe I’m harsh because he works very hard and his defensive impact is good. He’s also a leader and may be contributing in ways not tangible in the above stats. But his carrying was non-existent during the first couple games and historically hasn’t been a strong point of his either, during the Autumn both he and Richie Gray carried less times per 80 than Jonny as well.
Perhaps I’m harsh but I think we need more, especially when you look at what England got from Chessum and France from Flament. Skinner and Cummings didn’t really get enough opportunity to show what they can offer but I think Jonny Gray did pretty well. His workrate belied his lumbering frame and he clearly offered more ball in hand than Gilchrist which I think is vital if we’re not to become completely and predictably dependant on Schoeman (and to a lesser extent the rest of the frontrow) and Dempsey to make the hard yards. As an example his 43 metres made against Italy’s reasonably robust defence close into the ruck (second only to Dempsey and Schoeman) was a welcome addition and if he can contribute those numbers more often it would help balance the carrying workload amongst the pack much more evenly.
As I said I think both Grays are our best bet currently but the likes of Cummings and Skinner could add massively to the pack if they can combine defensive workrate and set piece ability with a strong carrying offering as Jonny may not be the answer either.
I actually suspect Gilchrist will return to the second row alongside Richie Gray but hope the pairing can step up to share the load when it comes to carrying going forwards to a greater extent.
Just to deep dive into the carrying from the second row a bit I’ve pulled together the carrying stats from last year’s 6N, the Summer tour games against Argentina, the Autumn Internationals and this years 6N.
I’ve excluded Jamie Hodgson and Glen Young as neither played more than 100 minutes. So I’ve been championing Jonny Gray but he’s actually been the least effective carrier in terms of metres per carry. I’m going to argue he was slightly more effective, creeping towards 4m per carry during the 6 Nations just gone but the stats do tell unarguably he’s in a league of his own in terms of carrying workrate. He’s carrying around twice as often on average as any of our other selections at lock.
To look at this another way: I’ve also looked at the percentage of these appearances where they’ve played at least 40 minutes and hit the 20 metre mark for metres carried. Sam Skinner actually comes out on top here, making at least 20 metres 4 out of the 5 times he’s played 40 minutes or more. Jonny comes in second at 62.5% whilst Gilchrist, Richie Gray and Cummings hit 23%, 20% and 0% respectively. I think that’s interesting and it does open up the conversation a bit. For me we need the sheer workrate of Jonny in the second row to take the pressure off of the likes of Dempsey and Schoeman as Richie Gray and Gilchrist just aren’t big contributors ball in hand. Skinner is effective though, could he be tasked with carrying more? Or Could Jonny add more oomph per carry getting his average per carry up over 4? Could someone else be even more effective or am I discounting Gilchrist too quickly or ignoring the rest of his game? What do you think?
That’s everything from me this time but as always all feedback welcome and I’m really interested in your thoughts on the pack’s performance over the 6 Nations.
39 Responses
Well it just goes to show what a difference there is between what I imagine is happening in a game and the official statistics.
For 2 seasons now I’ve felt Jonny Gray was off the pace, I refer to him as old ‘pillow shoulders’ such is his passive tackling style and as for his carrying, anytime he has the ball it was a predictable 3 paces then ‘timber’ over before funnelling the ball back between his legs.
This seems a million miles away from the player described here has having the most dominant tackles , most offloads and up there with the best for metres made ball in hand.
I think I would be sending that software back for recalibration of the algorithms.
I think there is an element of motivated perception to many fans thoughts when watching Gray which comes from frustration that he’s clearly a big unit but isn’t the most dynamic.
I think the stats actually back that up when it comes to carrying. His strength is his workrate not his power.
In general his carrying will make less metres than anyone else (though not significantly less owing to the lack of powerful carriers in the second row) however he’ll carry twice as often as anyone else. I think this benefits the team as for example whilst Schoeman’s workrate is ridiculous he won’t want to carry that much if we’re trapped in an attritional scrum heavy match against South Africa or anyone else.
IMO Gray gets a lot of stick because whilst he is a quality player when he was breaking through people imagined he’d be a world class lock which he isn’t.
It’s the great white hope problem, we have been so bad in the recent past and yearn so much for success that our best players get burdened with excessive expectations and then criticised for not always meeting them. I don’t think there are any of our best players that don’t get absolutely slated by fans at some point.
It’s nice to see the reappraisal of Gray here. A few years ago all the talk was “he does all the work you don’t see”, and now we’re back to “wait, if he’s so good, how come I don’t see it?”
He sometimes seems pathologically unaggressive in comparison to other top level locks, but everything he does is in service of the team. I’d equate his carrying to a spin bowler in cricket – he takes on so many of the thankless carries into traffic, that our other big carriers get to conserve energy for the big moments. This is doubly true when you also consider how many rucks he hits.
Comparing him now to his early days in Scotland, it does seem like Exeter have prioritised size over speed in their training of him. He looks ungainly. But he’s a real asset at scrum and maul now. And as always, his work rate is utterly extraordinary.
Sounds spot on – stats match the sense from watching: Schoeman, Turner, Fagerson, Gray, Gray, Fagerson, Ritchie, Dempsey. With at least Kebble, xxx, Nel, Darge on the bench. Who do you think for replacement hooker?
Probably Ashman in my opinion.
I also think Sutherland is more likely than Kebble at loosehead if he stays fit. Kebble seems some way off his best currently though I’d love to see him back at that level.
This is a great article and really good insights.
Alarming how our line out collapsed without Richie or Gilchrist against Ireland. If either of Skinner or Cummings can show they can lead a line out well they’ll put themselves in a strong position. Cameron Henderson seems to be making a name for himself at Leicester too, how far off night he be?
Thanks FF.
I think Henderson will be very close to the world cup squad. He runs what is a very decent Leicester lineout and was identified early on by Borthwick (who regardless of whatever else knows about lineouts) as the key man to do that for them. He’s back fit and in their side after a spell out with injury and I think Townsend will be mindful that if he loses Richie Gray at any point he needs someone who can take over in the lineout.
Does he carry well or is he the more athletic type?
At most we’ll take 4 locks plus one lock/backrow hybrid I’d imagine so if Henderson makes it in it’ll be at the expense of a pretty established name. Richie Gray is nailed on, so maybe 2 from Gray/Gilchrist/Cummings/Henderson plus Skinner (alternatively Toonie might take 6 back row given quality and attrition there.
If everyone is fit what is your starting pack and bench forwards Scrummo, Who misses out?
Schoeman, Turner, Fagerson, R.Gray, J.Gray, Ritchie, Darge, Dempsey.
Ashman, Sutherland, Nel, Gilchrist, Fagerson.
It properly pains me to put Matt Fagerson on the bench but Darge has to play and Ritchie is Captain. Hopefully a case for Walker over Nel soon but not until he earns it. The lock on the bench could be any of Gilchrist, Skinner or Cummings really but I’d probably lean towards Gilchrist as the most likely to step in at the linout if Richie Gray had to go off early.
Sorry, but J.Gray doesn’t cut to the chase
After his performance last night v Munster I very much agree re Darge.
MacBeth is staring to look quietly impressive.I wonder if he could be a dark horse for a loose head spot?
v Munster Darge looked like it was a big step in his attempts to get his match sharpness back. He is not quite at the level he was before injury but looks like he will be there before the RWC. He is a far better overall player than Watson…and can play 6 effectively too.
I thought same re: Macbeth…he could be quite a unit at LH. I thought his play was also mature considering his age and lack of experience.
On another note…..Tonga must have a helluva back row if they don’t consider Vailanu a 1st team pick. He was outstanding v Munster. They will be a threat also at the RWC..if that is their calibre of player.
Schoeman Turner Fagerson R.Gray Gilchrist Crosbie Darge Dempsey
Kebble Brown Nel Henderson Ritchie
If we are looking to beat SA / Ireland (which must be the target) I reckon the above is the best mix, desperately unfair on M.Fagerson but needs must…… Need Kebble to get games under his belt but he can be a tremendous asset……IMO J.Gray doesn’t excel at anything these days so doesn’t travel
To me it just emphasized how stats can create a perception of a player that doesn’t always reflect the reality of performance level.
Johnny Gray??…yer havin a laugh. There are plenty environments in the world where folks work really hard..and that’s great and has its place….but we are talking about selecting what is supposed to be our elite rugby players for the national side. Great…J Gray works hard…but the reality is he just doesn’t have enough talent, whether overall or even specifically one skills area, to compete at the top end of rugby. He has no impact. He’s a solid club player …and is a back up in the case of injuries..and even then Id sigh if he was selected.
Id rather see Henderson get a shot to show what he can do.
Crikey even Watson looks like he did something in the 6N according to those stats….except to anyone watching…he was anonymous in his game time.
Hogg has announced retirement after World Cup
Slightly surprised but he has been picking up injuries pretty easily these days.
Expected him to retire from International rugby after the WC (or at least no longer be first choice). However, thought he would go take an easy payday in Japan or France for year or 2.
Strange timing to announce however? Why not say after WC.
He’ll have his reasons no doubt…..maybe because there will be a new coach announced before RWC? …or at least immediately after.
Quite surprised – he’ll only be 31. He might not be at his world class heights but has plenty left to offer IMO. It’s the end of an era and Scotland will miss him when he’s gone.
Not only do we have limited depth in the back 3 but he was clearly a forceful and competitive personality that helped drive Scotland out of the dark days. Gutted he couldn’t finish his career with a grand slam under his belt.
As David Sole said about his own decision to retire at a youngish age, “It’s not the registration number; it’s the miles on the clock.”
Hopefully we’ll get a last chance to see him at Murrayfield in one of the summer tests.Go well Stuart-we will miss you enormously.
Not surprised one bit. He’s been a great servant to Scottish rugby and produced some exceptional rugby at his peak …but he has looked done for a while…ditto Watson.
Is there much else for Stuart Hogg to achieve. He puts himself through it, however , I think we are a long way off a grand slam . Maybe thinking if getting out before he fades away. Actually hats of to him. It takes a big man to face it is time .
Yes. In this 6N, especially, you could see his body was almost done and ability to beat the 1st man was slipping away…also the injuries are adding up. Good for him to recognize this and finish up before it goes pear shaped…many don’t.. keep going, tarnish their image and face serious injury.
Will be interesting to see if GT has learned anything at all from persisting with Barclay & Taylor when they were done ….I doubt it..
Really disappointing news. The only way I can really see us getting a Grand Slam/ 6N Championship is with all of our key players fit and on top form at the same time. A fully fit and on form Stuart Hogg has always massively improved our team, and I was hoping he’d reach those heights again for another few years to come. While Finn’s been our most important player for quite a while, if he’d won a Grand Slam I think Hogg would have gone down as Scotland’s greatest ever player.
Id agree with that if the likes of Hogg Watson and a few others were at their peak ……but they are not. Their peaks have passed ..their best form has been missing for a long time…not a couple of matches.
We need to move on…and not make the same mistakes we made with Taylor & Barclay of recent times.
We have players who are ready to step up.
Truely wonderful player, 5 or 6 or 7 of his highlights will stay in my memory forever.
I feared his time had gone, constantly caught by the 1st defender over a series of games.
Brilliant emotional Scottish
Such a shame about Stuart Hogg, although you could visibly see he was struggling for fitness and form this season. Lets not forget what he has done for Scotland – there was a time when he was virtually our only attacking option.
The time for making it known that we appreciate what he has done is not now, it will happen.
But one thing that happens in life and rugby, is that something , and someone , always turns up.
Stuart Hogg will have a great future and no one can remove his achievements .
If we are to be a great rugby nation, we need to believe we can move on.
Think of all the people he has inspired. You get the picture.
I mind watching a 19 year old Hogg in an 1872 match on a freezing night at Murrayfield in 2011. Great pace and step and a siege gun boot. It was clear he was going to be an international.
Good luck to him in his retirement.
No way, gutted. Thought there would be a few more years. The only player for so long. Damnnnn, maybe will reconsider.
thanks for this.
Surprised no specific call out for Luke Crosbie – looks like he was our most prolific tackler in the 2 games he played – both of which we won – and missed zero. Just emphasises my bafflement at why he was dropped altogether for the next 3 games – 2 of which we lost, and the 3rd we almost lost. Seems like a gaping hole in the team selection process within the context of this tournament?
Agree sir, if you re-watch the games/highlights Crosbie making tackles, not missing any in 2 games, he has the physicality and height that gives you another line out option.
Watson may be like Hogg, great once but old father time loses to no man
Not sure if Crosbie qualified for Scrummo’s analysis as only played 2 matches and less than 50 tackles, though not far off which is impressive for 2 games. Think he was on the injured list for Edinburgh recently, don’t know when that was picked up so might have been a factor, though stand to be corrected on that. Not sure if he was THE deciding factor for winning the first 2 games but though he wasn’t a stand out ball-carrier, I thought he did a great job defensively and also adding some extra grunt to the back five. I do think our best back row is 3 out of Ritchie Dempsey Fagerson and Crosbie with either Dempsey or Fagerson on the bench, which is a tough call on whoever doesn’t start. Christie is looking good at Sarries so not far behind either and Darge will hopefully regain match fitness soon. Mish will really have to work hard to regain a regular spot – at least I hope he does rather than relying on past reputation and performances which GT seems to put too much bias on.
So, Edinburgh continue with the HP/BK 9/10 positions. OMG!
Its not just two below average players (in their position) for HK level, but they are also a clash of styles, do you want to play fast or slow? Kinghorn needs fast service because he cannot manage a game, and pyrgos cant play fast because he is 50 years old and timid around the breakdown.
Only against JVP and Handre Pollard, there will definitely be no difference in class