KO 4.45 at BT Murrayfield
Saturday 11th February 2023
Live on BBC1
History tells us that Scotland starting a Six or Five Nations with two wins is nearly as rare as an Englishman who can tackle Duhan van der Merwe. The last time the dark blues opened with victories in Rounds 1 and 2 was 1996. Across the last 70 years of the tournament, the Scots made a perfect start on just 5 other occasions – 1995, 1990, 1984, 1967 and 1957.
During the Six Nations’ era the most common way to commence has been back to back losses…
Scotland’s results in Rounds 1 and 2 of the Six Nations:
- Loss / loss – 13 times
- Win / loss – 5
- Loss / win – 4
- Loss / draw – 1
Between 2008 and 2016, Scotland won a just single one of their 18 Round 1 and Round 2 fixtures (when Italy were demolished 34 – 10 at Murrayfield in 2013). That has changed significantly in the last six seasons with at least 1 win in each year bar 2020. Following up first round success has proved impossible, however.
Previous Round 2 results after Round 1 victories in the Six Nations for Scotland:
- 2006 – lost 28-18 to Wales (A)
- 2017 – lost 22-16 to France (A)
- 2019 – lost 22-13 to Ireland (H)
- 2021 – lost 25-24 to Wales (H)
- 2022 – lost 20-17 to Wales (A)
Having crushed Scotland’s dreams three times already in the 2000s, Wales have the chance to inflict yet more pain. This game will be a real test of how far Gregor Townsend’s side have developed and how deeply ingrained the resilience and mental strength they showed against England has become.
Wales Scouting Report
Work Harder? Or Smarter?
As Scotland have so often discovered, taking on an Ireland side in full flow can be an overwhelming and overpowering experience. Wales would have struggled to work harder than they did – their ratio of tackles to carries made by the opposition was by far the highest of all the nations in Round 1:
- Wales – 1.63 tackles per opposition carry
- Italy – 1.49
- Scotland – 1.33
- France – 1.27
- Ireland – 1.23
- England – 1.17
Every member of the Welsh starting pack was into double figures for tackles attempted as they tried their best to hold back the wave upon wave of heavy duty carries. They were also the side with the most dominant tackles in week 1.
There’s certainly no questioning the level of effort coming in but the big issue for Warren Gatland’s men was that even piling multiple players into tackle situations wasn’t enough to stem the Irish tide.
Scotland’s pack might not be able to bring the same brutal physicality that Ireland did but with some decent variety in their carriers if they can draw in 2 or 3 tacklers at a time they might then look to exploit the space out wide rather than going direct again and again as the Irish did.
Away Day Blues
Since making an RWC semi-final in 2019 Wales have played a large majority of their games at home (23 out of 35). While their home form has been mixed – 10 wins, 1 draw and 12 losses – it has been outside Wales that they have been most under pressure.
Their 12 trips away have produced just 3 wins. Italy were taken apart in Rome in 2021; there was a remarkable single-point victory against a (much changed) Springboks side in the second Test of their series last summer; and of course, there was Murrayfield in 2021 – more of that later, unfortunately…
That last encounter in Edinburgh should be more than enough to disabuse Scotland of any notion that playing a wounded Welsh side, seemingly low on form and confidence, guarantees a straightforward win. Warren Gatland may have been away for a few years but the side is still very much built on the foundations he put in place – dogged, stuffy in defence and not about to roll over for anyone!
Wales may be on a poor run with 2 wins from their last 10 but it’s worth bearing in mind that they secured yet another Six Nations’ championship (and had a near miss with a Grand Slam) in the 2021 edition of the tournament immediately following a run of just 3 wins from 12.
Miscellany
- There are some doubts over whether Alun Wyn Jones will be fit to take his place in the second row. The former Welsh skipper has started every one of his country’s trips to Murrayfield since 2007 (6 wins and 2 losses). If he does make it he would play against Scotland for a remarkable 16th time (12 wins and 3 losses to date).
- Liam Williams contributed 8 of Wales’ 17 tackle breaks last weekend. At times it seemed like the full back was on a near one-man mission to spark his backline into life. Even at a couple of months short of 32 he remains imperious in the 15 shirt and will be looking to add to the 3 tries he has already scored against Scotland.
- While Wales having to chase down Ireland’s big lead may have altered their approach, there were signs that they might not plan to just fall back on the infamous Gatlandball style. Wales offloaded the ball 10 times in their Round 1 clash – more than any other side, bar France (11).
- It cost them a number of penalties – perhaps unluckily at times – but the Welsh were particularly aggressive on the counter ruck any time Ireland’s ball was slow. While Scotland were excellent in this facet of the game v England (losing just a single ruck) they have previous for under-resourcing the breakdown. The Scots cannot afford to be outworked by the visitors in this area.
Previous results
This will be the 12th time the two sides have met in Edinburgh for a Six Nations’ match. The head to head looks like this from Scotland’s perspective:
D W L W L L L L W L L
Most recent meeting at Murrayfield:
Scotland 24 – 25 Wales
Significant stat
188 metres gained ball in hand by Wales – the lowest figure for any of Scotland’s opponents for a game during the Townsend era. Much of the field position that the Welsh scored their 4 tries and 1 penalty from arose due to Scottish indiscipline. The dark blues were especially culpable when going from an attacking position 10 metres from the Welsh goalline (and a chance to build their half-time lead to 22 or 24 – 3) to being pinned back with a defensive lineout 8 metres from their own line.
The transition came via a sequence of penalty (breakdown) – penalty (maul) – penalty (tackle). Wales barely had to work for a single metre but were handed the setpiece that Louis Rees-Zammitt scored his first try from to give them a lifeline and a route back into the game.
The Scottish Rugby Blog match report from that game is here.
Officials
Referee: Andrew Brace (Ireland)
Assistant Referee 1: Frank Murphy (Ireland)
Assistant Referee 2: Chris Busby (Ireland)
TMO: Brian MacNeice (Ireland)
While having URC referees in charge of a fixture involving two of the URC nations should mean everyone knows what to expect, Glasgow players in particular should be very familiar with the officiating team with Messrs. Brace, Murphy and Busby having taken charge of 6 of the Warriors’ fixtures so far this season.
Scotland have won or drawn the penalty count in their last 8 fixtures – immediately following on from a run of 7 games where they had lost the same stat. While it certainly doesn’t guarantee a win, another solid performance discipline wise should certainly help the dark blues’ hopes of sending the home fans away from Murrayfield in a happy mood on Saturday evening.
Scotland’s previous games with Mr Brace in charge:
- 2018 – beat Fiji (H)
Penalties: 20 (For 12 – 8 Against)
Cards: 2 YCs for Fiji - 2020 – beat Wales (A)
Penalties: 22 (For 16 – 6 Against)
Cards: none - 2021 – beat England (A)
Penalties: 21 (For 15 – 6 Against)
Cards: 1 YC for Sco (Finn Russell), 1 YC for England
Part II of the preview, including the head to heads, will follow on Friday after the team announcement on Thursday.
The Teams
Scotland: Stuart Hogg, Kyle Steyn, Huw Jones, Sione Tuipulotu, Duhan van der Merwe, Finn Russell, Ben White; Pierre Schoeman, George Turner, Zander Fagerson, Richie Gray, Grant GIlchrist, Jamie Ritchie (capt), Luke Crosbie, Matt Fagerson.
Replacements: Fraser Brown, Jamie Bhatti, WP Nel, Jonny Gray, Jack Dempsey, George Horne, Blair Kinghorn, Chris Harris.
Wales: Liam Williams, Josh Adams, George North, Joe Hawkins, Rio Dyer; Dan Biggar, Tomos Williams; Wyn Jones, Ken Owens (capt), Dillon Lewis, Dafydd Jenkins, Adam Beard, Christ Tshiunza, Tommy Reffell, Jac Morgan.
Replacements: Scott Baldwin, Rhys Carre, Leon Brown, Rhys Davies, Talupe Faletau, Rhys Webb, Rhys Patchell, Alex Cuthbert.
52 Responses
Yet another ref who has yet to witness a Scotland loss….this is becoming a trend…more so cos we are winning far more in recent years than anything else….
…Still nervous about this one….can somebody give me some thing to cling onto?
Things you can cling onto – This win over England was way more impressive than last year, Sione on this form is a game changer, Finn seems happy, we finally have forwards who can properly mix it, nobody tore the @rse out of anything last weekend.
Things you can’t cling onto – Duhan when he gets going.
I’m not sure many can cling onto him when he gets going…lol.
Lots of positive stuff…a Hogg try would help too…I think we’ve missed a trick not switching the 9s for this one…
An inexperienced Welsh team playing Scotland hasn’t worked well for us in past….so maybe but not arrogant…
This does seem to be a different mentality with this group….though. calm, assured, unassuming and can cope with mistakes on the field and reset quickly.
This team can come back from more than a score behind….before 2022 (2019 Twickenham exveption) when have we come back to lead going down more than a score?
Hogg will be better this week.
Crosbie plays better with regular games, against this Welsh back row he may have the chance to really announce himself on the international stage.
Russell is the best 10 in the world right now.
R.Gray/Tuipulotu are in phenomenal form.
That’s no even mentioning VDM Jones Fagerson………
Great Analysis. Thanks
Let’s not forget that Wales were essentially handed two games in 2021 with the red cards by over eager refs enforcing the new head impact protocols. Zander will be in best behaviour all day long to avoid a repeat.
Grizzly A – thanks for reminding me of the abject despair (only surpassed by the Matt Williams Wales game – when I left at 1/2 time) I felt at the end of that game
Not to mention Toonie’s first 6N game when they ransacked us in Cardiff, the Hogg red card shellacking, and of course, 2010.
Actually, thinking about it now, if you picked the ten most depressing Scotland games this century, Wales would have a claim to at least five. Lot of ghosts to exorcise on Saturday.
compounded by the fact we should have had at least 2 kickable penalties awarded in the dying seconds of the game.
wales’ almost jam slam year
Wales team out – exactly the kind of reckless, hail-mary longshot that will undoubtedly work wonders against us.
Frankly it is terrifying.
Smacks of desperation, playing a bunch of kids and dropping those loyal to him to this point. Clearly failed to get AWJ past the HIA which is embarrassing. The whole of Welsh rugby remains a mess and Gatland butchered his last two jobs (Chiefs and Lions).
Just need to play the game confidently, patiently and enjoy the cool, calculated, inevitability of revenge. Winning every battle across the park.
There’s nothing to be panicked about that tombola of a Welsh side, at all. Give them 21 point head start and would still back this settled dangerous Scotland side to come good. Such a fortifying bench too.
Very happy they’ve kept faith with Crosbie.
Has there ever been so few changes before between matches under Toonie?? Really pleased consistency is being given a chance to prove its worth. Assuming no injuries all tournament, which is a massive assumption, the only other player who could force their way in is Graham but even then, he really needs to show match fitness first. Imagine that doesn’t apply to Zander due to our chronic lack of depth at TH.
I too have worries about this game – probably due to recent history of the fixture, but also Wales likely to improve from last week, and we may not be quite as good.
Having said that, we are the better team, have home advantage and that should be enough.
The horrors of the last 2 games v Wales have not yet been erased from my memory!
Not sure I’d have started with Zander – WP has been playing well and deserved to keep his spot. But I guess if Zander wasn’t 100% not even Toonie would put him in.
Great to see some consistency in selection – I’m sure if Crosbie hadn’t put in such a great performance Watson would have been in the squad. Pinball will be chomping at the bit to get some more games so it’s good for the squad all round.
First time for a while I’ve been confident (though not overconfident) about playing Wales (even 2 years ago).
It’s all about discipline for this one. Keep the penalties down and we have it in the bag.
Glad to see the continuity…as it feels like an eternity since we had any.
Glad to see Crosbie in ahead of Watson… who to me is a back up now unless he dramatically recaptures his form of a couple of years ago. I think Crosbie had a decent if unspectacular match vs England…but I think once he gets comfortable with test level he will excel.
Hope Fagerson is both match ready and prepared to be disciplined. He is our best TH but if his discipline goes so will our chances.
Im still concerned about Kinghorn being the back up to Russell. I would have found a place for Healy. Russell and DVDM can expect extra attention in this one. Gatland has gone for extra energy levels of youth in the forwards also knowing there isn’t much evidence for GT to use with a few of them.
We’ll need to be better than last week …I think Wales will be. I think a good start will put doubts into those younger Wales heads with mistakes appearing. The likelyhood of this match flowing without yellows or reds is pretty low….we need to keep the heads.
I like the fact that Toonie is not just picking on form, but we have an experienced squad developing.
The youngest in the 23 is Matt Fagerson (24) with an average age of 29.
The starting XV have 547 caps between them (average 36.5) with another 331 caps off the bench (bringing the average up to 37.3).
With potentially another 8 games before the world cup kicks off that’s impressive. Especially with the likes of Price (58 caps), Watson (54), McInally (47), Graham (33), Berghan (32), Bennett (29) and Hastings (27) waiting in the wings.
I’ve always been a big fan of consistency in selection and Townsend has finally got a settled team/squad (irrespective of what happens on Saturday).
Really interesting stats. Matt F is our youngest, and he’s older than six of the Wales starting lineup, including the entire back row.
The thing that we don’t have is experience of winning consecutive big matches such that we challenge for and actually win anything of note.
Wales, England, Ireland, France have players that have actually won important trophies at test level…we do not.
Good stat work Merlot, although the most amazing bit is how Berghan ended up with 32 caps!!
We really need Finn to be at the races for this one and for the players to look past the recent history of this fixture and trust in their own abilities. I just hope we can keep 15 men on the pitch for 80 mins and that the game isn’t marred by any silly cards or shenanigans from Wales.
I’ll say the same I have said every year for the last while before this match, Wales are poor and we need to be putting them away if we have any thoughts on challenging for the title. However history shows we have a remarkable ability to play poorly against them. The fact they have thrown away the old guard and rolled the dice frankly terrifies me. Nothing galls me more than being beaten by Wales and Ireland.
All that said, the only reason we have to not beat them is if we don’t play well enough. We played far better against England this year than last year so start on a better footing in my opinion. Last year it was essentially Finn Russell beat England, this year the whole team beat England and it was a better England team too.
My worry was Wales successfully playing the ref which is what they did to us last year in Cardiff where they took advantage of a very unique tackle/breakdown interpretation. With this XV that seems less likely as Brace is unlikely to let some kids ref the game the way as we have seen AWJ, Tipuric and Navidi do in the past.
There should be space for our attackers and we should be good for 3 or 4 tries as long as our handling and discipline is good.
Yeah I think Brace isn’t the worst ref we could have got for this game. Not sure if it’s just me but I always worry when I see Luke Pearce’s name listed.
Pearce in for Ireland game…
I hope that our Psych coach is busy…bottling this one would have repercussions for rest of year imo…
Let’s make sure we make a good start, It doesn’t have to be getting loads of points we just need to be dictating the pace and flow of the game. Impose how we want to play and we will win. This is a poor Welsh team if we can’t do now when?
‘This is a poor Welsh team if we can’t do now when?’
We’ve been saying that every year for goodness knows how long…
It’s almost being treated as a free hit from Wales perspective, really interesting/mental changes. If Edinburgh were playing that team I’d e confident.
Finn Russell has been superb in his last 2 internationals against much better teams, just play what’s in front of us, no mistakes and manufacture the gaps for our ,better, backs.
As said above Welsh defeats inhabit my nightmares
We know that Wales will rush Finn and the outside centre will rush as well. We need to utilise these gaps and not to throw hail Mary passes leading to intercepts
Like a dink or a grubber?Rare things at Twickenham..used once and we score-never seen again??
It’s a little bizarre ..our failings v Wales. Our club sides have little to no fear of playing any of their club sides…none of them are anywhere near Leinster or Munster. Yet playing for Gatland Wales suddenly we have this trepidation about playing them…..they ain’t no All Blacks.
It is that time already , my loyalties are challenged , but not divided, ‘Cymru nes i mi farw’
I think you have a complaint brothers, Mr Brace is sponsored by the IRFU, as are his 2 assistants and the TMO. Cymru have already played iweddon. Making a scene will not help , just make it worse for you.
The last thing iweddron want is to come to dinburgh to face an unbeaten Alban. Home advantage neutralised. What have you lot done. He will be turning his blind eye and making sure his critical one is alert. This is going to be full of controversial moments.
How can they be neutral ? He is Cymru’s 16th man. It looked like your year as well. Cymru are at their most dangerous after a humping and the choice of officials is madness. Max Boyce was right , the roof on the millennium slides back so God can watch as well. What is more , the ‘all mighty’ is undoubtedly our side, his name is Liam Williams. (excuse my little joke) , you either love him or hate him.
So much pressure on Yr Alban, dinburgh will be alive with the sound of Hen Wlad Fy Nhadau this weekend .
Cymru am byth
Nah, not Wales’ year.
Well ..Wales have been humped a fair bit over the last few years…im not sure Id class their responses as dangerous…..pretty embarassing that we haven’t been a humper ….crikey even Italy were. Enjoy your Rugby League under Gatland!!
You are missing the point, so ir Alban, so soft.
The officials are from the IRFU! it stinks.
Cymru are rarely the best side on the day but these games are won in the shades of grey, won on the dark side. Won with Skin under our nails and words from the mouth.
Those fine margins, my Caernarfonshire ass.
You lot are showing up to play rygbi and it is a card game tomorrow.
Do not be so soft lads! I give up with you lot . You will get what you deserve. What am I doing here.
I really mean this ‘Cymru am byth.’
Nope didn’t miss the point….actually alluded to similar earlier in posting. It will be a game where yellows and reds could be prominent so we have to stay disciplined throughout the match. Scotland are not great at ‘dark arts rugby’ …we simply play too honest.
Gatlands choices in the pack speaks of desperation to me, their is no way he was planning to make these many changes before the Ireland game, He put out his best team and they got humped, he knew he had to blood some new players so I think his focus is now on building depth for the World Cup and much as he doesn’t like loosing he’s prioritising that ahead of a quick fix 6 nations win. We have to win and win well
When I think back to most of our defeats against Wales we couldnt find a route through their defence. I’ve just remembered most of Gatland’s success was based around Shaun Edwards and he’s not with them any more.
I’ve looked at The Wales game last year and my memory was correct.. we were 11-6 and 14-9 up and up until 25-30 minutes we dominated the play in amongst silly errors which allowed Wales to get 3 points from time to time.
Then Wales did something (anyone know?) and the flow changed and we lost how our danger with ball in hand.
We scored 3 points in the last 50 mins which is poor.
We scored points throughout match last week and we have come back from being down by 7 points in recent years…to win often. Examples below with New Zealand only loss.
2021 – France
2022 – England
2022 – New Zealand
2023 – England
The Championship minutes were interesting on Sat. (5 mins before and after half-time)
These are seen as crucial and lose that you have a good chance you lose the match…we lost them 15-0 on Sat. (England scored a 7 point try in first 10 mins of half)
Replying almost immediately was crucial too.
We are making progress over the last few years…
Winning away in Wales, England and France were the goals only few years ago. We’ve done that and we’re doing things we’ve not done before.
The next step is winning 2 matches to kick off championship, beating Gatland and Wales. All can be done tomorrow.
Then we move to trying to beat Ireland…
We win alot more than in our recent history…Townsend now has 13 wins in 26 Six Nations matches. That’s unthinkable in the 2000’s.
This is a huge day tomorrow and it’s nowhere near a guarantee, quite nervous but this team is different…even if we do lose this team is different…but it would be a huge dent in our progress.
To my memory ,it was a wales penalty that came back off the post , and we were not ready for it , game swung on that moment
I know it’s early days in this campaign but here are a few observations:
1. Having a harmonious camp is crucial. Russell and Toonie appear to have resolved their differences and that is massive.
2. We are benefiting from having Ritchie as captain. He is leading by example and developing good relationships with the refs. His leadership is rubbing off on the rest of the team.
3. The new attack coaches are working wonders. For whatever reason it wasn’t working with AB Zondagh and credit must be given to Pete Horne and Brad Mooar (assuming his impact has also been positive).
4. Toonie is being more brave with his selections and there is more focus on form rather than reputation.
5. Ritchie Gray is in the form of his life and his return to the side has sorted out a previously wonky lineout which was costing us dearly.
6. Our squad depth is the best it has ever been. We can cope well when key players like Darcy are injured.
7. Tomorrow will determine whether or not we are becoming more consistent at winning.
I agree with all your points…….yet my fear is that our match will be decided by irrational decisions either via ill discipline or sketchy match officiating.
Gotta back up a performance at some stage.
27 years is a long time.
Let’s do it tomorrow!
Lets do it Johnny B.
Scotland by 25!
The last time we beat Wales at Murrayfield was when Rob Howley was caretaker head coach. We built up a solid lead in the first half and then nil’d them in the second half with a controlled display. Something similar would do very nicely. Discipline needs to be on point in the first 20-30 mins as this is when Wales might be trying to engineer a red card.
I was at that game – I thought we had taken ‘the’ step up yhat day……. Russell Hogg Jones slicing through them after R.Gray battering them…….glorious stuff.
Tomorrow…..no mistakes, play the game where we want to, put them in the back foot….. get the ball to Russell
Well done Scotland U20 on beating Wales
A huge mental hurdle overcome and showed great conditioning and mental resilience to come back.
Cymru did not expect to beat iwerddon, you do not expect to beat them either, so we are actually evens as I write tonight.
Our 6N starts this week and Cymru will beat Alban this weekend.
Now that you have beaten lloegr we can kill 2 birds with just one bullet. When we beat you in dinburgh, lloegyr will know we can beat them at home in Caerdydd. It is Springboard match for us.
The plan is easy:
Win with bonus points.
Win in a way we break your momentum / confidence for the rest of the tournament (Cards, red or yellow) citing’s after the game.
You are now favorites , you never stand that pressure well.
Cymru make ref’s know they are dominant force.
Cymru are ready for you.
Cymru am byth
Daihard? More like Blowhard…
Gatland is being clever with his narrative we can’t win triple crown, grand slam etc. so he is wanting to build this up as an experimental game. I don’t believe a word of it.
This will be a tough game, as you would expect, but play and trust the process , keep the error and penalty count low. We can win this. Stress the new welsh players put pressure on their basic skill sets. I don’t think we can underestimate what a good choice for captain Ritchie is not only in his cool headed decision making but also I really like his rapport with referees. Think this is where Jones is a miss for wales. Owens lacks his gravitas for me
Having said that I think Hoggy has a good rugby brain and two of the new boys in the pack are his teammates at club level he has seen their integration and development so may offer something
The welsh back line is good but turn them, get behind Williams . Astute kicking from FInn I think this is set up for him. Especially up against biggar! Who will no doubt be waving his imaginary card for something or other at the ref at one point
This is big for us. I think we will take it today. Cmon Scotland
Yellow card, my bahookie.