Scotland will travel to Dublin this weekend with both a triple crown on the line and a first ever tournament win definite possibilities going into the last weekend. An equal best finish of third is guaranteed, while a record second is also possible even if results don’t all go the right way. Winning in Dublin is not just as easy as all that though.
Scotland have to back up a once in a lifetime performance
Scotland were superb in dispatching France last weekend, however the level of their performance was very high. To pull off another win they will need the same levels for a second week in a row. We’ve seen they’re capable of that against England too, but against Wales they were distinctly subpar. “Subpar” will not get the job done in Dublin, no matter if Ireland haven’t been at their best this tournament.
For example, Ben White will have to outperform arguably the two best 9s in the world game on back-to-back weekends. Jack Dempsey’s bicep will need to hold up (one more titanic performance please Jack). And so on.
Differences in officials may also come into it. Despite missing a clear eye gouge, Angus Gardner was largely very kind to Scotland. The referee this weekend is Luke Pearce and Scotland will need to find a way to keep a similarly low penalty count again someone with potentially a different interpretation of the way Scotland play.
Scotland record with Luke Pearce as referee
Scotland are suffering from a litany of injuries
You could make the spine of a decent team from players who are injured: Van Der Merwe, Hastings, Dobie, McBeth, Millar-Mills, Ritchie and now Gregor Brown and Scott Cummings are also out. That means a new look second row pair of Grant Gilchrist and Alex Williamson, who will have big shoes to fill in a fixture where Scotland often struggle to make dents in the Irish pack.
The good news is that Kyle Steyn and Huw Jones have been pronounced fit, so the backline that cut France to pieces is unchanged and will ride or die together one last time. There is a return to a 5:3 bench though which suggests Kyle Rowe’s inclusion on the bench could be covering those injuries. Rowe comes in alongside George Horne and Tom Jordan who have been on the bench for most of the tournament.
In the pack it’s also pretty similar to last weekend. Zander Ferguson being restored to starting tighthead is the big change alongside the aforementioned second rows.
On the bench though, things are considerably different. D’arcy Rae who impressed against the French scrum swaps with Zander Ferguson, while Alex Craig is the next second row off the rank. Magnus Bradbury is rewarded for a rich vein of form with Edinburgh with what has been Josh Bayliss’s spot on the bench till now and perhaps offers some second row/back row versatility that has prompted the 5:3 split to cover the walking wounded in the backline.
Scotland last 10 games against Ireland
Scotland’s 6N record in Dublin is appalling
Scotland have lost all 11 games played against Ireland under Townsend. There have been close things (Hogg celebrating a try he never scored springs to mind).
The last win away was the Dan Parks game in 2010, held at Croke Park. Gregor Hiddleston would have been just shy of his 8th birthday. Freddy Douglas was 4 when Parks slotted that conversion. I was single, and this blog was bustling with fresh posts. Times change!
Scotland last 10 games away from home against Ireland
They cannot out muscle Ireland
The key to beating France was to “out France” them. Scotland cannot “out Ireland” Ireland, it’s not in their rugby DNA. Plus they’ve tried and failed at that before; it never works and we end up getting bullied off the park.
What they might be able to do though is to “France” Ireland, given how successful that was during round one – France made Ireland look as hopeless as Scotland made France look.
What would be even more refreshing is if Toony could come up with an original game plan of the perfectly tailored kind that seemed to appear against England and France (and to an extent Argentina till the flop), and then the players could go out and execute it.
Ireland: Jamie Osborne; Robert Baloucoune; Garry Ringrose, Stuart McCloskey; Tommy O’Brien; Jack Crowley, Jamison Gibson-Park; Tom O’Toole, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong; Joe McCarty, Tadhg Beirne; Jack Conan, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris.
Replacements: Ronan Kelleher, Michael Milne, Finlay Bealham, Darragh Murray, Nick Timoney, Craig Casey, CIaran Frawley, Bundee Aki.
Scotland: Blair Kinghorn, Darcy Graham, Huw Jones, Sione Tuipulotu (capt), Kyle Steyn, Finn Russell, Ben White; Pierre Schoeman, George Turner, Zander Fagerson, Max Williamson, Grant Gilchrist, Matt Fagerson, Rory Darge, Jack Dempsey.
Replacements: Ewan Ashman, Rory Sutherland, D’arcy Rae, Alex Craig, Magnus Bradbury, George Horne, Kyle Rowe, Tom Jordan.
32 responses
Largely as expected I think. Tom English is saying its a massive show of faith in Max Williamson, I’m not sure its a show of faith so much as only option. The second row does give me the fear slightly, I think our success this year has been due in no small part to having a more dynamic and aggressive second row (Italy aside where the whole team were far too passive).
100% agree that we can’t and won’t out Ireland Ireland even if they are a team on the wane from their recent highs, we have tried and failed numerous times and for me this will be the true test of Toonie as a coach this 6N, what will the tactics be for this game? Too often in the past he has tried to take them on directly. The 5:3 split gives a hint but I suspect you may be right in that its more to cover Steyn and Jones possibly being a bit ropey fitness wise. I have never feared France or even dare I say New Zealand as a team because I know that we play the type of rugby that if we play well can beat them, the same type they play, its just that they are generally (or always in the ABs case) a bit better at it than us and I can take being beaten fair and square by a better team. What has been particularly galling to me about being repeatedly pumped by Ireland is I haven’t felt we are giving ourselves the best chance, we have gone about it in all the wrong way (plus all their cheating of course). Ireland, like South Africa (and England before they got rubbish) play a type of rugby that we can’t compete with so its a waste of time trying to take them on at their own game. It’s not in the DNA of the way we play and we don’t have the players to do it so changing the tactics for one or two games a season to try and do it has always been bonkers IMO. We have to change the game and make them play it on our terms, if we do that they won’t be able to live with us. The challenge of course is finding a way of forcing our game upon them and that obviously isn’t easy but it’s where perfect execution comes in, it’s far easier to do if you are nailing line outs, getting penalties and scrums and not the other way round. France managed so I’m sure they will be studying that match very closely this week.
I have a real nagging suspicion that this is all going to come down to Frances comeback last weekend. If we hadn’t shipped those 26 points by my counting there would only be 10 points in it.
“Plus all their cheating of course” 😂. Love it.
The late shot on Hogg when he was chasing a kick (I think) which left him injured so when they got the ball there was no fullback and they kicked to the space and scored, springs to mind. Can’t remember what year it was.
That was Pete Mahony
. He knew exactly what he was doing
It is very unlikely to come down to points difference as France were pretty well ahead there already. The only reason the comeback really mattered was it got the losing BP that put France level on table points. Deny them that and we would have a much larger set of permutations to win the tournament this weekend, including any sort of win.
That French side was always going to score at least 4 tries, and to be fair to them, there were a couple of gems at the end.
Agree with the above comment that the second row is a major cause for concern. Hope Max Williamson can come in and make an impact – he’s nailed on to be a serial fixture in the second row in years to come. Alex Craig is maybe a bit unlucky, given he’s been going so well for Glasgow.
I feel like Kinghorn is due a big game. He’s the one player in the backs that I don’t think has had a stellar moment, and I’m not the only one that thinks Kyle Rowe is knocking very loudly on the door for that 15 jersey.
I can’t see us winning. I worry there will be the same next game malaise as we saw after beating England. Plus we seem to struggle away from Murrayfield.
As mentioned, tactics and execution need to be spot on.
Max Williamson and Alex Craig have been talked about on these forums for a while as being two of Scotland’s next hopes to raise the quality in the pack. Hopefully they show what they can do on Saturday. I also hope Kyle Rowe has a good game if/when he gets on as I feel he’s been great for Scotland when he’s played.
Jesus when you see that record written down it’s very stark
Also worried about the second row Just once more to the well gilco
Scotland by 5. Please Ryan a big miss for them a proper enforcer , that can’t be underestimated
Very disappointed to see Bayliss drop out for Bradbury, this is Ireland we are playing not second bottom of the league Scarlets. Bayliss has played exceptionally well this tournament & doesn’t deserve to be dropped for a player who has one good game for Edinburgh followed by 5 or 6 very average games, he didn’t even get a start in the ‘A’ game against Italy. Toony tombola strikes again, maybe Townsend should ignore people like Tom English pushing for players who aren’t international class.
Yup, Bayliss is the ‘star’ of this week’s ‘You’ve been Toonied’. It’s his own fault, though – doing well when given the opportunity just isn’t the done thing.
That said, it’s hard to argue with most of Toonie’s picks. I would, however, feel happier with Rowe at 15 and Kinghorn back in France, and I do worry about Gilco’s lack of dynamism.
Anyway, it’s great to be going into the final round of fixtures with the 6N title and Triple Crown to play for.
Best of luck to the lads.
Does anyone know why Baliss is not on the bench ? I like Bayliss , I know Magnus Bradbury is playing well and wont let us down. But why the change ? injury or horses for courses ?
During the Lions tour I felt aggrieved that Huw and Sione were clearly better than the Irish centres but Farrell favoured an unfit Aki and his son for a bench spot. Among other things I hope they show him tomorrow that they are too good to be split as a pairing.
Sione talked about learning how Farrell sets his teams up and why they have been so successful. Lets use that knowledge and the time in camp with the Irish players to overcome this hex. Massive game and very hard to call.
Payback for Huw and Sione . I love it.
I am afraid the payback didn’t happen. Their centres are far superior to Sione and Guw. The drop from Huw and knock-on from Sione were embarrassing.
we’ve seen that one before – completely outplayed yet again . We just make too many mistakes to compete with them. Really disappointed with that
Well at least we don’t have to cheer on England.
We’ve had 3 wins in the six nations before, for me Townsend has to go, my position on this was always going to depend on if he can beat Ireland, not France, as this is his Achilles Heal. Although Admittedly the players are to blame here also.
Poor line speed in defence. Fagerson and Schoeman still on the field exhausted on the 70th minute. Did we stop them scoring even one time once they got into our 22? Awful.
We can’t have Townsend leading us into the World Cup against Ireland for yet another loss.
80 minutes of poor performance against Italy
40 minutes of piss poor rugby against the worst Welsh side in History.
80 minutes of below average play against a good but not great Ireland side.
This is not improvement.
Harsh assessment on the state of this Irish side but I kind of agree with the rest of what you say. I’d also say why sub Williamson and leave Gilchrist on? Great hands from Gilcho for one of the tries but I thought Williams was much better at overall. Similarly subbing Graham and leaving on Kinghorn was an odd one.
SRU aren’t getting rid of Toonie but there needs to be an explanation of his contract extension. And even worse, having witnessed the embarrassment that is Edinburgh against Ulster, the extension for Sean Everitt.
I feel there were like 6-8 minutes of good rugby against Ireland when we got back to near a score or two, then the benches came on and it ran away again
Our performance fell away when the replacements came on against France too albeit we had a couple of players playing out of position because of injuries during the game.
Against Ireland, Toony left the starting props on for too long. He compounded this by withdrawing Graham and Dempsey (assuming they weren’t injured) and by not withdrawing Kinghorn, who was anonymous in defence.
We were still in the game when Graham and Dempsey went off but it thereafter slipped away from us at fair old rate of knots.
It’s all irrelevant now but bringing Bradbury on for Dempsey is like replacing Pavarotti with Des O’Connor, Bayliss might be glad he missed that today. The other thing I noticed is I don’t think I’ve ever seen a fullback that stays as far away as possible from the play when the opposition are attacking. Maybe we need a new defence coach we seem to have regressed in that area & we’re back to conceding soft tries.
Good analogy. At least Demsey is not injured, he is needed at Glasgow.
Ireland rested and rotated against Wales and with an extra day to recover we were always going to struggle in Dublin after such an emotionally and physically draining contest against France last Saturday. We also missed our first choice second row and had two overplayed props who were running on fumes by the end. I don’t think Ireland are that special (they’re good but not as good as they were) and feel that we might end their streak next year either at Murrayfield in the 6N or at the RWC.
That can only happen if there is change in the coaching set up. Every assistant coaching position has changed except one. Let Red Bull give Toonie his wings to fly off to the Toon and give Franco the crack he has earned and deserves at the end of this season.
I agree with your comment on the effort it took to beat France and thinking about it , France did let England into their game . But on balance , France had more energy than Scotland . Perhaps being at home helped them.
We were fairly average and from the minute they won the first scrum with a penalty it looked ominous. I am not sure why we lost that penalty , for me , it should have gone the other way.
We were in this 6N right up to the last day, that was a different kind of hope.
Another disappointment in Dublin, sadly. Ireland deserved to win even though the final score flattered them. From memory, it seemed that every time they got into our 22, they scored.
A lot of handling errors, but many of those were caused by relentless Irish defensive pressure.
We also seem to have slipped back to the times when we used to fail to control restarts and fail to press when we are restarting.
Two really disappointing defeats book-ending three wins of varying accomplishment. It’s tough being a Scotland rugby fan!
I want to know why Huw Jones was catching the restarts
So we were really good in 2 games and pretty poor in 3. Home advantage a factor in that. I suspect next year will be our final chance for a while as our talented players arent getting any younger.
Why do we switch off after scoring? Everytime we worked very hard to score we then allowed Ireland straight back into attack and took the pressure of them.
Too many mistakes and I feel some of those were on Toonie and the way he used the subs. Gilchrist and Kinghorn staying on the pitch at the expense of players having better games was odd.
We now need to look to the nations cup games to assess where we are. Fiji are unlucky to be playing us at Murrayfield so I feel we have to beat Fiji, Japan, Australia and at least one of Argentina away or NZ at home (we’re not beating SA in SA) for it to be considered a good season.
We are the only side to beat the winners France. We came third in the six nations table and have managed that six times in the history of the competition.
Jack Dempsey going to play in Japan is bad news for Glasgow & Scotland, their season runs from December to May so may not be released for next year’s 6 Nations. He will be a huge loss, he is the only one from our back row who constantly breaks tackles & makes the hard yards. Are the SRU doing enough to keep our best players?
Clearly they are not , we have lost good players and that is common to all teams. We can not stop players earning better money in their careers. Perhaps the SRU need to re-think policies as glasgow fans (or edinburgh for that matter) will not rock up to watch mediocre performance when a good overseas player could make a difference and protect us during the 6 Nations. look at the mess Wales are in with their policies albeit they have 4 pro teams.
We need more players. Look the playing number of players in all the other top 8 ! Look at the playing numbers of some not in the top 8. It is a miracle we are 7th.
On that point we have been 3rd in the 6N six times now ( 2 with Toony, and 1 each with Cotter, Johnson, Hadden and McGeechan) . We have been wooden spooners 6 times.
Where is this all going ?
Scotland are never going to be a top team in the world (top 4) until they have third team in the URC. Same goes for Italy. Wales are completely bonkers to be trying to get rid of one of their regions, which if fine by me. Where we get the money from is, of course, another matter. We can’t even keep several of our best players ( Dempsey, Jordan, Jones, Ritchie etc ) !
I don waaana……..talk about it…….’cept to say,if a kid doesnt want to pick up a rugby ball and play after watching that..i dont know what would inspire them ..AND IT WAS ON REGULAR TELLY.
See this losing bonus pt,would the game be better served….if when a losing bonus is not won,then that pt is a win bonus and awarded to the winners?