Scotland’s starting lineup shows 5 changes from the side that lost 7 – 22 to Ireland at Murrayfield back in March with Blair Kinghorn, Darcy Graham and Ali Price in for Stuart Hogg, Kyle Steyn and Ben White in the backs plus Grant Gilchrist and Rory Darge replacing Jonny Gray and Matt Fagerson in the forwards. In total, 14 of the 23 featured against Ireland during the Six Nations.
The Irish XV only shows 2 changes to how they started earlier this year – Iain Henderson for James Ryan and Jamison Gibson-Park for Conor Murray. 18 of the 23 (including all of the starting XV) played some part in that most recent victory for Ireland over Scotland.
13 Irish players were in the 23 when these sides met in the opening round of the 2019 World Cup. There are just 6 returnees in the Scotland lineup with Finn Russell and Grant Gilchrist the only starters this time round who were also in the XV in Yokohama.
12 changes to Scotland’s starting XV from last Test (v Romania)
- 15 – Kinghorn for Smith
- 13 – Jones for Harris
- 12 – Tuipulotu for Redpath
- 11 – van der Merwe for Steyn
- 10 – Russell for Healy
- 1 – Schoeman for Bhatti
- 2 – Turner for Ashman
- 3 – Z. Fagerson for Sebastian
- 4 – Gray for Skinner
- 6 – Ritchie for Crosbie
- 7 – Darge for Watson
- 8 – Dempsey for M. Fagerson
2 changes to Ireland’s starting XV from last Test (v South Africa)
- 2 – Sheehan for Kelleher
- 5 – Henderson for Ryan
BACK 3 – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND
| Hugo Keenan Mack Hansen James Lowe | 15 14 11 | Blair Kinghorn Darcy Graham Duhan van der Merwe |
| 30 96kg 81 9 28.0 | Tries Average weight Total caps RWC matches Average age | 59 95kg 120 14 27.1 |
This will be the first time any player other than Stuart Hogg has filled the Scottish 15 shirt for a competitive match against Ireland since the 2011 Six Nations, when Chris Paterson started at full back.
Scotland’s back 3 players average better than 2 tries per game over the last 15 months (35 tries in 17 matches). They’ve been blanked by the best defences during that spell though – France and Ireland in the Six Nations plus South Africa at this World Cup. The attack needs to come up big in this game – if this trio are scoring then things must really be working.
CENTRES – ADVANTAGE IRELAND
| Garry Ringrose Bundee Aki | 13 12 | Huw Jones Sione Tuipulotu |
| 29 101kg 105 13 31.1 | Tries Average weight Total caps RWC matches Average age | 18 102kg 63 5 28.2 |
While Sione Tuipulotu may be seen as a powerful up the guts runner his main contribution to the growth of this Scotland team has been to provide Finn Russell with a second playmaker right on his shoulder and change the picture of when and where Russell is taking the ball.
If Tuipulotu is looking for an example of how to keep growing and developing within a team he could do worse than try to emulate his direct opponent on Saturday. Bundee Aki is playing the best Test rugby of his life aged 33 and has gone from being the fella Ireland called upon to fill in if Garry Ringrose or Robbie Henshaw are unavailable to one of the first names on Andy Farrell’s teamsheet.
HALF BACKS – ADVANTAGE IRELAND
| Johnny Sexton (c) Jamison Gibson-Park | 10 9 | Finn Russell Ali Price |
| 20 85kg 144 19 35.0 | Tries Average weight Total caps RWC matches Average age | 13 89kg 139 12 30.7 |
The respective 10s have been through this battle many times before. Both men have downplayed their role, insisting – not without merit – that they rely on the pack in front of them to provide decent possession and the backline around them to execute at the highest possible level.
So much revolves around these 2 players though. They are key to driving standards in their sides as well as heavily influencing just what their team’s style will look like.
Back in March, Scotland put the ball in Finn Russell’s hands 61 times to allow him to try and unlock the Irish defence. Meanwhile Johnny Sexton only had 37 touches (although from 10 minutes less game time) but was ultimately able to be the more influential of the two. It’s a story that has been repeated time and time again – will there be a different ending on Saturday evening?
FRONT ROW – ADVANTAGE IRELAND
| Andrew Porter Dan Sheehan Tadhg Furlong | 1 2 3 | Pierre Schoeman George Turner Zander Fagerson |
| 349kg 14 146 18 27.9 | Total weight Tries Total caps RWC matches Average age | 350kg 15 125 10 29.4 |
Andrew Porter has only lost once in the last 30 games he has played for Ireland and Leinster. That’s the best streak of all those who play for the team from Dublin and the national side but by no means unusual.
The only time many of these players have tasted defeat in the last year was in the Champions Cup final against La Rochelle. The mental focus must be relentless. Lesser sides would lose concentration here or there in some minor game or other but the Leinster/ Ireland machine simply doesn’t seem to allow standards to drop.
SECOND ROW – EVEN
| Tadhg Beirne Iain Henderson | 4 5 | Richie Gray Grant Gilchrist |
| 231kg 14 121 20 31.7 | Total weight Tries Total caps RWC matches Average age | 244kg 4 144 19 33.7 |
Scotland fans looking for positive omens might like to consider that Richie Gray has been involved in all 4 of the dark blues most recent wins over Ireland – in 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2017. Come on people, those straws aren’t going to clutch themselves…
BACK ROW – ADVANTAGE IRELAND
| Peter O’Mahony Josh van der Flier Caelan Doris | 6 7 8 | Jamie Ritchie (c) Rory Darge Jack Dempsey |
| 318kg 21 188 21 30.0 | Total weight Tries Total caps RWC matches Average age | 320kg 7 73 9 26.8 |
Peter O’Mahony’s record against Scotland has just a single blemish on it. 11 matches played, 10 wins, 1 loss. That defeat in 2013 demonstrated that even the most dominant team cannot win if they don’t take their chances.
At Murrayfield in the Six Nations a decade ago, Ireland had 71% possession and 77% territory. They only had to attempt 48 tackles against an anaemic Scottish attack that managed just 102 metres with ball in hand. And yet the dark blues came away with the win thanks to 4 Greig Laidlaw penalties.
REPLACEMENT FORWARDS – ADVANTAGE IRELAND
| Ronan Kelleher Dave Kilcoyne Finlay Bealham James Ryan Jack Conan | 16 17 18 19 20 21 | Ewan Ashman Rory Sutherland WP Nel Scott Cummings Matt Fagerson Luke Crosbie |
| 112kg 25 209 21 30.2 | Average weight Tries Total caps RWC matches Average age | 113kg 11 176 27 28.4 |
This is the 8th time that Gregor Townsend has opted for a 6 forwards, 2 backs split on the bench. It was also deployed against France twice this year, arguably making somewhat of a contribution to comebacks in Paris and Saint-Etienne. Although in both games it still wasn’t enough to allow the Scots to get a positive result over the line.
REPLACEMENT BACKS – ADVANTAGE IRELAND
| Conor Murray Jack Crowley Stuart McCloskey* | 21 22 23 | George Horne Ollie Smith |
| 20 100kg 132 18 29.8 | Tries Average weight Total caps RWC matches Average age | 9 86kg 33 7 25.5 |
It has been a remarkable year and a bit for Ollie Smith, after only making his Test debut on last July’s tour of Argentina. Now he finds himself on the bench for one of Scotland’s biggest matches this century and poised to slot in at full back if any one of 6 different players gets injured.
Aggregates for the 23s:
| 173 2,419kg 1,126 139 30.2 | Tries Total weight Total caps RWC matches Average age | 136 2,432kg 873 103 28.6 |
* RWC debut
Miscellany
– 21 of Scotland’s selection are from Glasgow (12) and Edinburgh (9) – in the last 6 years that’s the equal highest tally of home-based players for any game excluding matches outside of normal Test windows for which no Exiles were available.
– Ireland’s lineup comprises 13 from Leinster, 5 from Munster, 3 from Connacht and 2 from Ulster.
– The only time that a more experienced XV (in terms of caps – 664) has started for Scotland under Gregor Townsend was against New Zealand in the 2022 Autumn Nations Series (670 caps).
– 16 of Scotland’s 23 came through the Scottish Rugby Academy system, the equal highest number for any game in the Townsend era.
– The starting XV have scored 116 tries for Scotland and the matchday 23 have a combined 136 tries – both record highs for teams selected since Toony took over.
If you missed Part 1 – previous meetings, scouting report and more – check it out here.
36 Responses
What a fantastic resource, I was wondering what the international caps experience of the teams were and you’ve only just gone and bloody well done it AND broken it down into the various positions – thanks Kevin, top effort.
Excellent as always Kevin. Whilst Ireland get the nudge, it’s not a huge amount of space between them. Performance aside, it will likely come down to the depth of analysis that’s been done, which channels to exploit, how to annoy Sexton, and charm the ref. Fingers crossed no red mist for Zander.
Excellent analysis.
I do think Sexton benefits from having such a dominant pack of forwards in front of him which means he can go for low risk percentage plays and not have to take risks unlike Finn. They are both excellent fly halves but with different qualities.
2023 Six Nations
Turnovers Won
Ireland 35
Scotland 19
Hard to understand team selection
Sir, whom would you have picked?
Brilliant pre-game analysis as always. Just want to say that there’s probably no other team I’d enjoy knoking out of the World Cup than Ireland right now. Right now they’re just the rivals that always seem to get one over on us, so it would be just brilliant if we actually did it in the big one
That said, if they beat us I’d prefer if they win the world cup over all the other realistic candidates… France (becaase of Gaultier), South Africa because of Rasmus, and a few other things), New Zealand (because they’re just arrogant aren’t they? Plus they haven’t deemed Scotland worthy of a regular game in 20 years)
Gaultier aside I hope France win the whole thing. They play the type of rugby that entertains me the most and I have a lot of respect for Shaun Edwards. The Irish repeatedly disrespect us through their media mouthpieces like OTB and on fan forums. I also think France play hard but fair unlike the likes of POM who will cheat and play dirty when given the chance.
Correct : France are by far the most entertaining side and they tend to have a bad game every world cup and every six nations. The gallic flair is not consistent however if any side deserves to be champions of the world, it is France.
Either way , we get a chance to beat them in the 6N and crow about beating the champions.
Ireland have an outstanding pack and depth in the replacements but their backs are grossly overrated. Admittedly Aki appears to have hit a rich vein of form but Sexton is only able to orchestrate his game plan due to the platform his forwards give him.if we can get parity in the forwards ( which is a huge ssk) then we have a chance. Otherwise it will be the familiar outcome. Not sure our chosen back row have the physical capabilities to compete. Would have liked to have seen Watson and Crosbie start. Anyway hope I’m wrong.
normally Ireland bring out the worst in us with an error-strewn performance from us. Hoping for once we can reverse this and maybe the Irish wont be at their best
Ireland now remind me of England when I was growing up. All the financial and structural advantages, a physical, organised, driven team that everybody respects (but nobody really loves), a media landscape that is just the absolute worst. They even have the vaguely inappropriate crowd song.
That England team went a decade without losing to us, even though we were decent at the time. We win today maybe five times out of 100. I know it sounds weird, but if I could swap all our players for all theirs, I wouldn’t. They just mean too much to me now, this flawed and frustating but passionate and often brilliant group. Darcy Graham, haring up the all-time scoring charts after the roughest time a couple of years ago. Rory Sutherland, who couldn’t walk around the time of the last world cup, dragging himself by his fingernails into Lions contention. Rory Darge, this young guy who rolls through tackles of people who feel twice his size. Richie Gray, from bleach-blond superstar to forgotten man to being back in the team and playing like it’s his last chance. Our foreign-born contingent, all deemed surplus to requirements elsewhere, finding a home for themselves with us, some of them becoming world class in the process. Blair Kinghorn, so versatile he’s been bounced around from position to position, treated like a experiment and berated by fans, never complaining once. The Fagerson boys, thrown onto the world stage way too young because they were better than anything else we had aged 20, finding their way in front of the world’s gaze. Finn Bloody Russell.
None of our players are perfect, the Lukanya Am, Brodie Retallik, you-can’t-see-a-single-flaw type player. Ireland have a bunch. Scotland are all slightly misshapen, they’ve all had things to overcome, they’ve all got stories and pain and challenges. I love them for that. Ireland are brilliant at exposing weaknesses and the score could get ugly today. I’ll still love them. But all those stories, all that pain, has given them the capacity to do something really, really special.
Bugger,l was just going to say that……nice one.
Absolutely agree. Would swap any of our players, because they are our players. Helps that we have good players in all positions. Seeing Finn mature from the guy who could infuriate to someone who makes mistakes, shrugs it off and goes again has been great. Seeing him drive the team to higher standards by encouraging, directing and inspiring is amazing and he doesn’t get enough credit for it.
We always have some players who get some stick. Currently Jamie Richie, and I just hope he has one of those games today when he is fast on the jackal and contributes to the line out as he is a great 3rd option.
The comparison to England in years gone by is good. Fear rhat if Ireland get ahead early it could turn very ugly, but we have a chance of a narrow win.
Great comment Angerine. I’m in Paris and there is a sea of green shirts. We will definitely be outsung tonight. This is the moment for the under dogs to bite.
A dominant Ireland is very hard to like and appreciate. Their fans and media repeatedly run us down and accuse of talking ourselves up and that we’re not in their league. I don’t recall a dominant England behaving in such a manner. They knew they had our number but wouldn’t trash us so much as the Irish do. Yes we’ll probably lose to them tonight but we have a puncher’s chance. The day Irish rugby falls off it’s perch (and it will because nothing lasts forever) will be a good one. France are clearly up there with them at present but they are far easier to like and appreciate because of how they conduct themselves.
GT needs this team to show up as much as we hope it does. I don’t see how he even makes it until the end of his contract of we don’t show up and perform.
If we haven’t figured out how to stop Ireland slowing our ball down and making us play the turgid stuff they do…well…we probably won’t ever under GT.
Please!.. please!… don’t just kick the ball back to them and cough up easy ball …I think I’ll just go mow the lawn if thats what’s happening.
Hoping the Refs actually penalize, for a change, continual slow down and offsides.
We’ve picked a good side…and a good bench (despite what some media are saying)..IF we turn up and produce what most fans feel we can we have a decent chance.
If we drop out, France and NZ will be the teams I’ll be hoping win the comp…they just play far better rugby…not just a style of rugby they can bend the rules for success.
Take the three points FFS!
Steve Buscemi refereeing. Not that he’s a bad ref. Just saying.
“Not clearly in touch” other than the wingers foot being on the line.
Im with you, do not understand the “not clearly in touch ” stated by the TMO. Ridiculous call. Big momentum change. Not saying we’d be winning but give us a break
Where’s plan B from Scotland? Looking very like the SA game. Lots of huff and puff but no cutting edge against the rush defence.
Oh Boy!! Thats a wrap then.
That touchline call gave Ireland momentum they hadn’t earned at the time.
There’s two things I have learned from this RWC
1. The higher ranked teams get the decisions
2. GT puts defeats down to lack of accuracy by the players rather than him admitting it could (a) be his gameplan or (b) his failure to get an 80 minute performance out of the players.
Truly terrible. An embarrassment, again. What have these guys been doing for 3 months.
Okay, before this all starts – Ireland are a much better side. Barring every single bounce of the ball going our way, we were never going to win this. Toonie’s tactics were fine. Selection was fine (I’d have had Watson over Darge, but wouldn’t have made much difference). Physically, we’re nowhere near being competitive at the breakdown, advantage line, set piece. The better team is rightly moving onto the QF. All I wanted from this game was for us to throw some punches, and it’s a shame we’re going out like this.
I agree that Ireland are a superior side but how come the gap between us and France is much closer to the one between ourselves and Ireland? There is a failure in there somewhere.
God I hope the ABs, France or SA beat Ireland. I can’t help it but I’d hate it if Ireland won this thing.
It’s a fair question, and my honest assessment is that France can blow hot and cold and drop their standards a lot more. So we can sometimes turn in a decent performance. Ireland are consistent and ruthlessly clinical, and we never have a chance because their physicality means we don’t have a platform to do anything. I confess I also want Ireland to get dumped out by NZ…
This is the most inept performance on record. Unfortunately the SRU will record GT with another 4 years contract on this basis.
Never thought we would win this one…..but out of it by half time?….thats just not good enough.
Really just too similar to the last RWC under GT. The selection was good….Watson is clearly past it at test level ..I don’t know why people are harping on about him. The tactics I don’t know if they were right I can’t really see what they were.
Years of knowing who we are going to face …and 3 months of squad prep..and this is ‘leaving it all out there’?? Yikes.
Ireland streets ahead and worthy winners…despite getting some sketchy calls.
Clear the bench cause this lot haven’t turned up to play. All the pre match talk was hot air. Back playing for their clubs next weekend
Selection was poor. However, there is almost no depth. Not sure who else you would play, or coming up. The depth pool is woeful. Unfortunately, worse times to come. U20s have almost nothing coming through for the last few years. Not sure what the answer is. It’s worrying
Thought the U20s were stood down during covid. But i am sure Dodson kept paying himself.
Ok. Realism here. We are a small country. Rugby is our second sport. I thought we did ourselves proud – against any reasonable measure.
Similar size to Ireland and rugby isn’t their first sport either so not sure either of those excuses holds much water.
The SRU is not fit for purpose. As with our representative pundits, we are always there to ‘make up the numbers’.
Spineless losers who don’t represent the country. The players conduct themselves well, as do the fans. Both groups deserve better than a coach who is massively out of his depth and a wider organisation that only cares about lining it’s pocket and getting a pat on the back.
Keep dothing your cap SRU. You’re spineless losers from top to bottom. No wonder rugby hasn’t captured the imagination of the wider population when you do nothing to grow the game and everything to keep it to yourselves.
The players deserve more. The fans definitely deserve more.
Get rid of Gregor Townsend and put Scottish Rugby first for once.
really disappointed with the performance today – completely outplayed from beginning to end. Men against boys