KO 3.00 at BT Murrayfield
Sunday 12th March 2023
Live on BBC1
The Triple Crown. A semi-mythical piece of rugby lore that may have declined in relevance as the tournament expanded from the Home Nations to Five Nations and then to Six Nations but which still comes with bragging rights for at least some of the competing nations.
The earliest sides to ‘win’ it (including Scotland in 1891) wouldn’t even have recognised the term. Until 2006 it was an intangible honour but now comes with its very own trophy – lifted 5 times by Ireland, 4 times by Wales and 3 times by England. One name is notably absent from that list of course. In fact, Scotland have only once played a match that would have seen them Triple Crowned in the last 27 years. A game at Twickenham in 2017 that it would probably be best to draw a veil over…
The dark blues’ history with the Triple Crown is a tale of two eras. Pre-World War II, Scotland played 9 matches where victory would secure that honour, winning 8 and losing just 1. Since then, it’s been slim pickings.
Scotland results in matches that would secure a Triple Crown (1945 onwards):
- 1973 – lost to England
- 1975 – lost to England
- 1984 – beat Ireland
- 1987 – lost to England
- 1990 – beat England
- 1993 – lost to England
- 1995 – lost to England
- 1996 – lost to England
- 2017 – lost to England
The Scots have won on all three occasions they have played Ireland having already defeated England and Wales – although how much impact results from 1984, 1938 and 1907 are likely to have on the players of 2023 is certainly open to question…
Bonus stat – this will be the 10th time that Scotland have played the number 1 ranked side in the world since the rankings were introduced 20 years ago. Across these fixtures, they only finished within a score on one occasion (the 17 – 22 reverse in the 2017 Autumn Tests against New Zealand) and the average margin of defeat in these games was 24.3 points. Happy Thursday!
Ireland Scouting Report
Fast Starts
In 9 of their last 10 Six Nations’ matches, Ireland have scored their first try of the game in the opening 10 minutes. The only occasion they didn’t manage this was against Scotland in Dublin last year when it took all the way through until the 16th minute before Ronan Kelleher crashed over. By contrast, the last time Scotland managed a Six Nations’ try before 10 minutes were on the clock was 24 games ago – Fraser Brown’s score against Italy in Rome in the 2018 tournament. During this period the average time of the Scots’ first try was 22.5 minutes.
That difference in opening salvos speaks to the teams’ varying strategies. The Irish kick off with detailed structures in place. Everyone knows their role in a system which is everything – there’s a decent chance a number of plays are pre-called. The Scots undoubtedly have their own systems but as Finn Russell has talked about there can be a bit more effort around the stand off and his side finding the best way into matches. Once they settle and start to pick apart the opposition’s defensive structures it can be devastating. The risk against the world’s number one side is that if Scotland save their best stuff for the second half (as has happened in the opening three rounds) the game might already be out of sight and even an attacking masterclass might not be enough to bring it back.
Powerful Finishes
In each of their last 6 matches in the tournament, the Irish have also scored at least one try in the final 10 minutes of the game. There is an element of wearing down their opposition as well as expecting to be fitter than any team they come up against. Across the first three rounds this year, Ireland have made 61 more carries than their opponents, showing patience to go through phase after phase that may not always have an immediate pay off but could earn them that little bit of extra space that is all they need to go for the jugular towards the end of the match.
Territorial dominance also plays a part in this grinding down of the other side. Against the Irish, Italy spent 62% of the game inside their own half; for France this stat was 64%; and for Wales it was 54% – at least in the opening 40 minutes of the match at the Principality before Ireland got a little sloppy. It’s the mental stress of being in areas of the pitch where a mistake can be most costly that will tire the opposition. The Irish are masters of exerting this pressure and Scotland will need to be able to play at their highest possible levels through fatigue right up to the 80 minute mark.
Midfield Muddle?
If the dark blues are looking for some encouragement then it is noticeable that Ireland’s defence hasn’t been at its usual suffocating level of intensity. As Gregor Townsend and his coaches have found out themselves when the focus shifts to prioritising and improving one area other facets of the game can suffer a little. The Irish have been opening up their attacking options and it may be that lower tackle completion rates are, at least in part, a product of less time being available for defensive drills.
Against France, Ireland completed 79% of the tackles they attempted. Versus Italy, that figure was 83%. Of particular interest to a Mr. H. Jones is the tackles missed by Irish outside centres in the tournament so far – 4 against Italy (Bundee Aki), 4 against France and 4 against Wales (both Garry Ringrose). Ringrose is celebrated for his defence so the high number of misses certainly seems out of character. Ireland’s performance against Italy in particular seemed to have some issues with the wingers (who have also missed 13 tackles of their own this Six Nations) making wrong decisions and poor reads, leading to their outside centres being exposed. It’s an area that Scotland must try and take advantage of – they will need good quality possession first though.
Miscellaneous
- In just three games, the Irish starting wings, James Lowe and Mack Hansen, have made a combined total of 47 passes – that’s compared to 12 by Duhan van der Merwe and Kyle Steyn.
- Ireland have won 24 turnovers during this season’s Six Nations. No other side has won more than 15.
- Caelan Doris is making the early running for a player of the tournament nomination. His defence is good but it’s his threat with ball in hand that will concern Scotland most. He has made 41 carries for 139 metres and thrown 17 passes. While his tally of 5 tackle breaks is reasonable it’s his ability to consistently get over the gain line, even into the teeth of double or triple hits that really benefits his side the most.
- Ireland and England are the only teams yet to receive a yellow or red card in this year’s Six Nations.
Previous results
This will be the 12th time the two sides have met in Edinburgh for a Six Nations’ match. The head to head looks like this from Scotland’s perspective:
W L L L L L W L W L L
Most recent meeting at Murrayfield:
Scotland 24 – 27 Ireland
Significant stat
25% lineout success rate for Scotland. Given the fact that the next worst outcome during the Townsend era was 58% in the teeth of a gale at Murrayfield against England, the setpiece meltdown against the Irish really was an all-time low. The visitors have generally proved pretty adept at pinching Scottish throws in recent Six Nations – 4 in 2018; 3 in 2019; 2 in 2020; 6 in 2021; and 1 in 2022.
This facet of the game is where Scotland will build many of their initial attacking phases from. If it goes wrong Finn Russell, Huwipulotu et al will be much less effective.
The Scottish Rugby Blog match report from that game is here.
Officials
Referee: Luke Pearce (England)
Assistant Referee 1: Wayne Barnes (England)
Assistant Referee 2: Christophe Ridley (England)
TMO: Stuart Terheege (England)
Scotland have won or drawn the penalty count in their last 10 Test matches, stretching back to (rather inconveniently) the last time they played Ireland. On that day the sequence went 15 – 10 in favour of the Irish. It’s an area that the visitors have dominated in these clashes with the Scots only winning the count once in their last 13 meetings with Ireland.
Scotland have had a bit of a mixed bag with Mr Pearce. If it wasn’t for a late missed penalty against Australia, they would have won all four previous games he had taken charge of but the penalties haven’t always run their way. The English official has also yet to card an opposition player – two or three on Sunday would certainly rebalance things!
Scotland’s previous games with Mr Pearce in charge:
- 2019 – beat Italy (H)
Penalties: 15 (For 4 – 11 Against)
Cards: 1 YC (Simon Berghan) - 2020 – beat Italy (A)
Penalties: 19 (For 12 – 7 Against)
Cards: none - 2022 – beat Italy (A)
Penalties: 15 (For 7 – 8 Against)
Cards: none - 2022 – lost to Australia (H)
Penalties: 29 (For 15 – 14 Against)
Cards: 1 YC (Glen Young)
The Teams
Scotland team: Stuart Hogg, Kyle Steyn, Huw Jones, Sione Tuipulotu, Duhan van der Merwe, Finn Russell, Ben White; Pierre Schoeman, George Turner, Zander Fagerson, Richie Gray, Jonny Gray, Matt Fagerson Jamie Ritchie (capt), Jack Dempsey.
Replacements: Fraser Brown, Jamie Bhatti, Simon Berghan, Scott Cummings, Hamish Watson, Ali Price, Blair Kinghorn, Chris Harris.
56 responses
I have a real deep feeling that Scotland will win on Sunday and walk away with the Triple Crown. Oh what unimaginable joy.
My Prediction.
Scotland 41 – Ireland 13
The Irish dogs are due a good beating and to be put back into their box. Expect Scotland to come out guns blazing and the Irish shaking in their boots.
Duhan will run over the top of Mick Hasen and end his career.
One gripe… why are ‘Ireland’ allowed to have two countries play for them? Northern Ireland should be a separate union. Gives an unfair competitive advantage.
The IRFU formed in 1875, before the Republic of Ireland won independence from the British Empire. Given the sensitive political situation on the island of Ireland, I’d have thought two communities overcoming their divisions to maintain that united relationship would be something to celebrate. IMO this is a pretty disappointing attempt at ‘banter’ Neil.
So why the various national anthems if they are one? It is not that simple , is it. I agree with you and really embrace the ‘two communities overcoming their divisions’ sentiment, it is powerful symbolism.
I am not being political, to be honest, just do not like it, when I hear the tune of Irelands call it sounds like a nursery rhyme involving a sheep and wool. I am miserable by the time we kick off.
So they are not that united after all. It is a really , really dreadful anthem. Ours is not great , but it is ours, they had a chance to get a new one, took it , and that is the best they can do.
only one anthem is played at away games. Its 2 at matches in Ireland
Why is that ? It gets more interesting !
When Ireland played Italy in Belfast prior to a World Cup (can’t remember which one) they only played one anthem and not God Save the Queen. This made a mockery of reason that ‘all’ Ireland use to have 2 anthems. One and one only needed
Tell me your a Rangers supporter without telling me your a Rangers supporter
Whoever Mick Hansen is must have been very impressed with how Mack Hansen played. Looks like his career will survive ????
Conan fairly ran “over the top of” Duhan for his try didn’t he?
How long will it take for O’Mahony to fool the ref and take an influential Scottish player out of the game with his ‘dark arts’ or cheating as normal folk call it?
I’m going first 15 minutes.
He certainly plays on the edge but he’d be one of the first players on my team sheet if he was Scottish. A proper rugby player not a gym monkey trying to play rugby.
I have come to genuinely dislike this fixture…Man to man I do not see that Ireland have any massive advantages, but their systems and their ability not to screw up seem to win them every game against us.
Anyway its ours to win or lose I think – we know what Ireland will bring, its up to us to keep our focus.
While they are clearly a top side I dislike Ireland more than any other home nation. Their rugby media is constantly accusing us of talking ourselves up which is a complete strawman as it’s usually pundits of other nations who wax lyrical about the likes of Finn. There is also a lot of talk this year about them “putting us back in our box”. I think they resent the fact that we get praised for playing attractive rugby and that we shouldn’t get any praise because we haven’t won anything. Then we have the likes of O’Mahony and his dark arts. You don’t see any of that nonsense from England or Wales who generally play fair. Nothing would give me greater pleasure than sticking one on them Sunday, as tough an ask as that is.
I dont read the media , so never get influenced , but Wales are the worst home nation, closely followed by Ireland and that is all based on cheating and exploiting the rules on the pitch.
Sexton winking when he got a bloke carded says it all really. I would have thought they were good enough to win fairly and get the respect for being good and fair.
Sexton’s leg hurts every time Tadgh Furlongs heart rate exceeds 175. Uncanny symbiosis.
Ireland didn’t look that great against wales or italy for long periods. Playing at home is a big advantage. If ever there was a game to turn Ireland over this is it.
Ireland were a lot looser against Wales & Italy but I do fear they have the capacity to raise the performance level if required, also Sexton absolutely fundamental to what they do.
We need to match their forwards and for that reason Crosbie must start, missing 0 tackles in the 1st 2 games umis no bad and his attitude and physicality (& height) could be crucial in buying Russell and Tuipulotu pricesless seconds on the ball
The Irish punditry is simply abysmal when discussing Scotland, they’ve invented a whole narrative which holds no water upon analysis. It’s been a long time since I’ve wanted Scotland to really stuff a team, this is one of them.
I’m Irish and my Wife is Scottish, and i’m actually embarrassed by the Irish commentary during Scotland matches. I’ve put it down to the influence of Matt Williams to the conversation and his ‘dislike’ of Scottish Rugby. I don’t think he coached/managed again after the Scottish job and I wonder if he’s bitter against Scotland for that. I try to watch the game on the BBC or ITV if i can simply because of the tone of the analysis.
From an Irish fan, I can understand your point. There are certain members of the Irish press that talk nonsense. As a people, we get on brilliantly with the Scots. The banter is good and I know the Irish players respect Scotland and get on with many of them off the pitch. Don’t let a few idiotic journalists taint your view of Ireland or the team It’s clickbait pure and simple. Scotland are humble as a team and a nation, IMO. I’m disappointed and angry at the anti-Scottish comments from some members of the Irish press(those with a chip on their shoulders – I think when we lost your vote for the WC so it went to France -still irks them). Please know it’s a minority opinion. Would always support Scotland after Ireland – Been to a football match(Scotland vs Moldova), draped in the Scottish flag, and in the rangers end but came out unscathed – even drank in one of the rangers supporters’ bars afterwards although many ask who I supported – I said I was a rugby fan. Anyhow – good luck this weekend – it’s going to be a cracker. Would not be surprised if you won – and perversely, think it would be good for Ireland although I hope we win. Best 6 nations in years, Scotland Ireland and Italy are a joy to watch – France too on occasion.
Generous post. Thank you. Had the great pleasure of being at the game in Dublin in 2018, my experience of Irish folk then agrees with your points.
Great post – thanks for offering an Irish fan’s perspective. Here’s hoping for a cracker on Sunday.
I think this might be Bobbins
Hope the crowd make the best of it. We tend to be amongst the weakest supporters when it comes to volume, and we need to press the home advantage, especially if we’re down early on. Looking forward to it.
Unlike many teams : We do not have songs to sing, about chariots, leeks, bread, and tomorrow they will be singing mournful songs about fields.
ARE YOU ON DRUGS
Now Gary you must be mindful of Comment Policy 1 and 12.
Ha ha too true Bass Rock. But we do have the ‘take the high road…’ which beats them all if 40 odd thousand fans join in.
Ian: At one time Ireland were not a rugby country, it was second to Gaelic games, played was played by posh boys from fancy schools.
However Ireland have turned that around to be world number 1. What an achievement , what a story. We scots should not and do not moan about that but must look and learn how it was done, respect it , hold it in esteem.
We would like to , but Irish camicaze pundits sully that by pulling down their obelisk of respect. Why let them do that? Why let them take away what you have earned ?
Nothing is forever, these days are fleeting, they will pass. Why remember these days with pride. You can earn bragging rights, you will be remembered for how you used or abused them.
Are they so insecure they cannot accept the role of world number ones with dignity and respect. You will hold it longer if you do IMO.
Price, Brown , Berghan on the bench.
When was the last time we dropped WP Nel for a 6 nations match. Is he Injured or dropped ?
And this is what concerns me, Brown is a penalty machine. Rambo, Cherry or Ashland should’ve been on the bench along with Horne and Crosbie. Mish either starts or not in the 23 for me.
Like the back row. At the start of the championship I was calling for Fagerson, Crosbie, Dempsey but knew Ritchie would have to start as captain, so it was never going to happen. I think Ritchie has improved game on game since then, so I think this is absolutely the right selection now.
Can’t really argue with the rest of the XV either. My only concerns are Berghan over Nel and Price over Horne on the bench. There may be reasons not obvious to us though.
Mish over Crosbie must have been a close call but they are both great options. And Cummings looked great last week – he really could make a big impact on Sunday.
Dempsey has looked better and better the more time on the park.
He looked average the 1st couple of appearances but he is beginning to look class at this level.
I like the look of Fagerson, Ritchie and Dempsey and think it’s the best combo we have at this time. There is a good bit of dog about those 3 …and they won’t roll over.
Im not sold on Watson over Crosbie …. and I prefer Darge to Watson also…that said..if he can be the player he was a few years ago for his time on the park it’s a good call.
Cummings will improve us I think…let alone ensure we don’t drop a level.
Id guess Nel is injured…but then maybe adds more mobility when legs are tiring.
Agree with RuggersB, Dempsey is superb and has that footwork that can gain yards.
Replacing Nel is a issue, can’t see the sense in letting McCallum go to Newcastle, maybe Walker is the guy to step up.
Matt Williams is the worst rugby coach in history but is a good talker (even although he seems bitter).
Crosbie can be disappointed
Harris should be no-where near the 23
Still a very fascinating game awaits.
Ireland still reliant on Sexton and Murrays inclusion suggests the short high box kick.
Harris had a good game against Ringrose when Leinster played Gloucester recently. It was great to watch, both of them trying to smash each other in the tackle. In the incredibly unlikely event that we have a lead to protect, bringing Harris on to stop the Irish going wide and opening the game up could be crucial.
Ireland starting with Murray at scrum half. To kick to Hogg and VdeM, then Gibson-Park to run free and use the width when it opens up in the second half? Complete opposite to our choice of scrum halves and likely pattern of game. We must be expecting to play fast and loose from the off, then consolidate later. We need to keep Ireland out in the early stages to stand a chance.
It’s a complete waste having an unbalanced player in Harris in the squad.
We get it, you don’t like Harris. He’s perfect for a game like this off the bench and plays well for Gloucester.
It’s set for a titanic struggle on Sunday. Two of the three best sides in this year’s 6N up against each other, with a Triple Crown at stake.
I do like the back row Toonie has selected. Tough, combative and experienced.
No team achieves number one world ranking by accident, so I see Ireland as favourites tbh.
Mind, I went to Twickenham seeing England as favourites, so who knows what could happen?
We’ve played some outstanding second-half rugby so far in this 6N, but this Test calls for a full-on 80 minute performance against an excellent team.
I remember roaring like a bear when O’Mahoney “assaulted” Hogg , got away with it and deflated the whole stadium
It was a late shoulder charge into the hip/pelvis area (an area where POM knew Hogg had been previously injured) with zero attempt to wrap the arms as I recall. Not even looked at by the TMO even though it was a dangerous cheap shot.
P’OM knew exactly what he was doing. Today it would’ve been a definite YC arguably a RC
Absolutely embarrassing from the under 20s. I know Ireland are decent but this is absymal, really depressing stuff. How are Ireland so far developmentally than us!?
The only Scot with any credit this evening was involved in the England v France game! It was just a mess, no aggression, no determination and no way could we manage to keep possession from what I saw. I did smile though when the Irish second row fended off the ref, obviously been fed tips by PO’M
The score may not suggest it , but I did see a lot of good tackles, round the middle , taking them down. Some of the senior team could learn from them.
I know this has been billed as a tight slam decider for Ireland against but for me I don’t think we will get close. Leinster v Edinburgh last weekend could be this game in miniature. Some nice tries for the Scottish side but the big team will overpower and get there in the end. If we are hoping a sprinkle of magic from our ex pat players will change things then go watch Leinster nullify Finns threat at Racing. I really do hope I’m wrong, we have put in performances at Twickenham and Paris to suggest we can compete but Where England are in transition and the French can always be flaky, Ireland are settled and consistent. They will wind up our players, be offside for most of the game and talk the ref through the game.
Talking of the ref I believe that it’s Luke Pearce which doesn’t bode well for us IMO. I’d feel better if it was Barnes or someone else.
At last the voice of realism! But I hope we can keep the margin of defeat down. If England were to beat France today, we might be competing with F for second place on the last day, and it would probably come down to points difference.
2nd place would be a great outcome. All eyes on England tonight.
Their dominance ends tomorrow. Scotland to win by 10 points.
For me …Im getting weary of all the ‘Unstoppable Ireland ‘ hype.
We have to look at what we are not doing well lately. We have not been starting matches well enough….not playing the 80mins. We have been giving a lot of soft ball back to the opposition.
If we are to beat one of , or the most, consistent high level sides in rugby we need to fix our own house …then we’ll compete …then we’ll see how good they are.
There will be opportunity for momentum swings if we work hard enough for them…and then we need to improve our efficiency in attack …as it seemed to drop in France.
If we play it soft and sloppy …we’ll see a result that reflects that. If we proper mix it …and attack like we can we’ll pose a lot of problems for Ireland.
White needs to pressure Murray instead of backing off to defend..the usual tactic.
There is a lot of talk of how Ireland shut down Russell and what they will and won’t do…..however…hopefully we have been working on how to shut Sexton down…because if we do that …imo…Ireland are a fraction as good a side. They know that …thats why he’s so protected by them and playing into pension years.
We’re gonna beat Ireland some time.
Yes Ireland and Irish teams are good but I get the feeling we’re often beaten before kick off when we play them.
Let’s just get stuck in and see what happens!