KO 4.45 at BT Murrayfield
Saturday 11th February 2023
Live on BBC1
History tells us that Scotland starting a Six or Five Nations with two wins is nearly as rare as an Englishman who can tackle Duhan van der Merwe. The last time the dark blues opened with victories in Rounds 1 and 2 was 1996. Across the last 70 years of the tournament, the Scots made a perfect start on just 5 other occasions – 1995, 1990, 1984, 1967 and 1957.
During the Six Nations’ era the most common way to commence has been back to back losses…
Scotland’s results in Rounds 1 and 2 of the Six Nations:
- Loss / loss – 13 times
- Win / loss – 5
- Loss / win – 4
- Loss / draw – 1
Between 2008 and 2016, Scotland won a just single one of their 18 Round 1 and Round 2 fixtures (when Italy were demolished 34 – 10 at Murrayfield in 2013). That has changed significantly in the last six seasons with at least 1 win in each year bar 2020. Following up first round success has proved impossible, however.
Previous Round 2 results after Round 1 victories in the Six Nations for Scotland:
- 2006 – lost 28-18 to Wales (A)
- 2017 – lost 22-16 to France (A)
- 2019 – lost 22-13 to Ireland (H)
- 2021 – lost 25-24 to Wales (H)
- 2022 – lost 20-17 to Wales (A)
Having crushed Scotland’s dreams three times already in the 2000s, Wales have the chance to inflict yet more pain. This game will be a real test of how far Gregor Townsend’s side have developed and how deeply ingrained the resilience and mental strength they showed against England has become.
Wales Scouting Report
Work Harder? Or Smarter?
As Scotland have so often discovered, taking on an Ireland side in full flow can be an overwhelming and overpowering experience. Wales would have struggled to work harder than they did – their ratio of tackles to carries made by the opposition was by far the highest of all the nations in Round 1:
- Wales – 1.63 tackles per opposition carry
- Italy – 1.49
- Scotland – 1.33
- France – 1.27
- Ireland – 1.23
- England – 1.17
Every member of the Welsh starting pack was into double figures for tackles attempted as they tried their best to hold back the wave upon wave of heavy duty carries. They were also the side with the most dominant tackles in week 1.
There’s certainly no questioning the level of effort coming in but the big issue for Warren Gatland’s men was that even piling multiple players into tackle situations wasn’t enough to stem the Irish tide.
Scotland’s pack might not be able to bring the same brutal physicality that Ireland did but with some decent variety in their carriers if they can draw in 2 or 3 tacklers at a time they might then look to exploit the space out wide rather than going direct again and again as the Irish did.
Away Day Blues
Since making an RWC semi-final in 2019 Wales have played a large majority of their games at home (23 out of 35). While their home form has been mixed – 10 wins, 1 draw and 12 losses – it has been outside Wales that they have been most under pressure.
Their 12 trips away have produced just 3 wins. Italy were taken apart in Rome in 2021; there was a remarkable single-point victory against a (much changed) Springboks side in the second Test of their series last summer; and of course, there was Murrayfield in 2021 – more of that later, unfortunately…
That last encounter in Edinburgh should be more than enough to disabuse Scotland of any notion that playing a wounded Welsh side, seemingly low on form and confidence, guarantees a straightforward win. Warren Gatland may have been away for a few years but the side is still very much built on the foundations he put in place – dogged, stuffy in defence and not about to roll over for anyone!
Wales may be on a poor run with 2 wins from their last 10 but it’s worth bearing in mind that they secured yet another Six Nations’ championship (and had a near miss with a Grand Slam) in the 2021 edition of the tournament immediately following a run of just 3 wins from 12.
Miscellany
- There are some doubts over whether Alun Wyn Jones will be fit to take his place in the second row. The former Welsh skipper has started every one of his country’s trips to Murrayfield since 2007 (6 wins and 2 losses). If he does make it he would play against Scotland for a remarkable 16th time (12 wins and 3 losses to date).
- Liam Williams contributed 8 of Wales’ 17 tackle breaks last weekend. At times it seemed like the full back was on a near one-man mission to spark his backline into life. Even at a couple of months short of 32 he remains imperious in the 15 shirt and will be looking to add to the 3 tries he has already scored against Scotland.
- While Wales having to chase down Ireland’s big lead may have altered their approach, there were signs that they might not plan to just fall back on the infamous Gatlandball style. Wales offloaded the ball 10 times in their Round 1 clash – more than any other side, bar France (11).
- It cost them a number of penalties – perhaps unluckily at times – but the Welsh were particularly aggressive on the counter ruck any time Ireland’s ball was slow. While Scotland were excellent in this facet of the game v England (losing just a single ruck) they have previous for under-resourcing the breakdown. The Scots cannot afford to be outworked by the visitors in this area.
Previous results
This will be the 12th time the two sides have met in Edinburgh for a Six Nations’ match. The head to head looks like this from Scotland’s perspective:
D W L W L L L L W L L
Most recent meeting at Murrayfield:
Scotland 24 – 25 Wales
Significant stat
188 metres gained ball in hand by Wales – the lowest figure for any of Scotland’s opponents for a game during the Townsend era. Much of the field position that the Welsh scored their 4 tries and 1 penalty from arose due to Scottish indiscipline. The dark blues were especially culpable when going from an attacking position 10 metres from the Welsh goalline (and a chance to build their half-time lead to 22 or 24 – 3) to being pinned back with a defensive lineout 8 metres from their own line.
The transition came via a sequence of penalty (breakdown) – penalty (maul) – penalty (tackle). Wales barely had to work for a single metre but were handed the setpiece that Louis Rees-Zammitt scored his first try from to give them a lifeline and a route back into the game.
The Scottish Rugby Blog match report from that game is here.
Officials
Referee: Andrew Brace (Ireland)
Assistant Referee 1: Frank Murphy (Ireland)
Assistant Referee 2: Chris Busby (Ireland)
TMO: Brian MacNeice (Ireland)
While having URC referees in charge of a fixture involving two of the URC nations should mean everyone knows what to expect, Glasgow players in particular should be very familiar with the officiating team with Messrs. Brace, Murphy and Busby having taken charge of 6 of the Warriors’ fixtures so far this season.
Scotland have won or drawn the penalty count in their last 8 fixtures – immediately following on from a run of 7 games where they had lost the same stat. While it certainly doesn’t guarantee a win, another solid performance discipline wise should certainly help the dark blues’ hopes of sending the home fans away from Murrayfield in a happy mood on Saturday evening.
Scotland’s previous games with Mr Brace in charge:
- 2018 – beat Fiji (H)
Penalties: 20 (For 12 – 8 Against)
Cards: 2 YCs for Fiji - 2020 – beat Wales (A)
Penalties: 22 (For 16 – 6 Against)
Cards: none - 2021 – beat England (A)
Penalties: 21 (For 15 – 6 Against)
Cards: 1 YC for Sco (Finn Russell), 1 YC for England
Part II of the preview, including the head to heads, will follow on Friday after the team announcement on Thursday.
The Teams
Scotland: Stuart Hogg, Kyle Steyn, Huw Jones, Sione Tuipulotu, Duhan van der Merwe, Finn Russell, Ben White; Pierre Schoeman, George Turner, Zander Fagerson, Richie Gray, Grant GIlchrist, Jamie Ritchie (capt), Luke Crosbie, Matt Fagerson.
Replacements: Fraser Brown, Jamie Bhatti, WP Nel, Jonny Gray, Jack Dempsey, George Horne, Blair Kinghorn, Chris Harris.
Wales: Liam Williams, Josh Adams, George North, Joe Hawkins, Rio Dyer; Dan Biggar, Tomos Williams; Wyn Jones, Ken Owens (capt), Dillon Lewis, Dafydd Jenkins, Adam Beard, Christ Tshiunza, Tommy Reffell, Jac Morgan.
Replacements: Scott Baldwin, Rhys Carre, Leon Brown, Rhys Davies, Talupe Faletau, Rhys Webb, Rhys Patchell, Alex Cuthbert.