France v Scotland, Six Nations 2023: Match Preview pt II – head to heads

12 of France’s starting lineup were involved a year ago when they travelled to Murrayfield for what turned out to be a very comfortable win – their first in Edinburgh since 2014. 10 of Scotland’s starters also played in that game. While there is definitely a feeling that the Scots have been, for the most part, on an upward trajectory since that match their mental preparation will still need to be spot on to overcome any lingering doubts there might be about being able to compete with last season’s Grand Slam winners.

1 change to Scotland starting XV from last Test (v Wales)

• 7 – Watson for Crosbie [+]

BACK 3 – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND

25   Tries   49
91kg   Average weight   100kg
63   Total caps   130
25.4   Average age   29.2

3rd time this unit has started together for Scotland

If a World XV was required to play against the rest of the galaxy next week then on current form the starting wings might well be Damian Penaud and Duhan van der Merwe. Their styles might be contrasting but both players know they need to provide their teams with tries and have all kinds of ways that they can achieve that.

The key for each side is how many opportunities they can hand their star wide men in a game. It’s an area that both Scotland and van der Merwe have improved on since the match against Australia in the autumn when the giant wing only touched the ball 3 times.

CENTRES – EVEN

14   Tries   15
98kg   Average weight   102kg
89   Total caps   46
25.8   Average age   27.6

3rd time this unit has started together for Scotland

Gael Fickou remains among the classiest operators on a rugby pitch. While maybe not quite the same instinctive, try anything attacking talent of his younger years he has added imposing defence to his arsenal. Is he picking up too much slack in that area though? Between Fickou and his centre partner, Yoran Moefana, they have completed 42 tackles so far in the Championship but the split is very heavily weighted (30 – 12) in favour of the older player.

On the other side of the pitch, Huwipulotu just works – but this, their 6th outing together in midfield for club and country, will provide the biggest test so far of their credentials in attack and defence.

HALF BACKS – ADVANTAGE FRANCE

17   Tries   10
86kg   Average weight   90kg
77   Total caps   78
25.1   Average age   27.6

3rd time this unit has started together for Scotland

Returning to a hypothetical Earth v the ROTMW* lineup, a partnership of Antoine Dupont and Finn Russell in the half backs would certainly provide some excitement. Dupont has been almost undisputed as the best player in his position for a while now. In fact, the only threat to his status seems more likely to be burnout than another scrum half.

Finn Russell himself already has more than 1,500 minutes of playing time on the clock this season. The Muscle doesn’t have the added pressure of captaincy and is well capable of managing his training load though! It’s something the Scotland coaches will be looking at, especially with regard to how much Finn plays in the national side’s RWC warmup matches over the summer.

FRONT ROW – ADVANTAGE FRANCE

350kg   Weight   350kg
4   Tries   13
81   Total caps  105
28.8   Average age   28.8

7th time this unit has started together for Scotland

Both hookers have a big role to play for their respective sides. Not only do they have to nail their setpiece work but they will also be expected to hit double digits for carries and tackles as well as provide turnovers!

In Julien Marchand’s case, he is France’s primary threat at the breakdown whereas George Turner should be operating as the supporting turn in a scavenging trio alongside Jamie Ritchie and Hamish Watson. Scotland need to disrupt French ball at source to try and reduce the threat from the home side’s backs. No easy task when France can send wave after wave of powerful ball carriers to smash the gain line.

SECOND ROW – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND

235kg   Weight   244kg
4   Tries   4
39   Total caps  132
28.1   Average age   33.0

7th time this unit has started together for Scotland

Much has been made of the Graynaissance as Richie Gray has rolled back the years to play arguably the best rugby of his career. Grant Gilchrist’s own maturing as a player in his 30s has garnered less attention, but the man from Alloa has owned a starting lock’s jersey in 19 of Scotland’s last 21 Tests.

The relentless – but possibly slightly less explosive – nature of the modern second row’s role certainly seems to lend itself to a certain maturity, both physically and mentally.

BACK ROW – EVEN

333kg   Weight   323kg
17   Tries   10
90   Total caps  122
27.5   Average age   27.5

12th time this unit has started together for Scotland

There is continuity directly within the Scottish back row selection and it also carries on from Gregor Townsend’s previous go to in the 2019 RWC cycle of John Barclay, Hamish Watson and Ryan Wilson.

The development of Matt Fagerson has been a significant one for balancing out Scotland’s breakaway trio. He has still to add lineout skills at the level of his mentor Wilson but, in general, his all round play is closing in on (and possibly even surpassing in some areas?) that of double British & Irish Lion, Simon Taylor as the best Scottish number 8 of the professional era.

FORWARD REPLACEMENTS – ADVANTAGE FRANCE

674kg   Weight   696kg
5   Tries   12
88   Total caps  241
28.1   Average age   31.0

This is the 6th time that Gregor Townsend has opted for a 6 – 2 split of forwards and backs on the bench (in his 64th match in charge) but the first time it has been used against a Tier 1 nation.

The French themselves have almost entirely moved over to the 6 – 2 split as their standard deployment as it fits well with their desire to try and maintain an overpowering level of physicality for the full 80 minutes. Both sides will have to keep fingers and toes crossed that injuries in the backs don’t expose the limitations of this setup…

BACK REPLACEMENTS – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND

4   Tries   14
85kg   Average weight   92kg
33   Total caps   98
25.0   Average age   28.0

French rugby Twitter (assuming nothing is being lost in the automated translation!) seems to be keen on Matthieu Jalibert replacing Romain Ntamack in the starting lineup. There has also been something of a groundswell of opinion among their Scottish counterparts for the rehabilitated Blair Kinghorn to be handed the number 15 shirt.

Ultimately these top level Tests nearly always require a 23 player effort so both Jalibert and Kinghorn (as well as their scrum half colleagues) may well still have a big say on the destination of the points in the crucial final quarter of this match.

(Players in BLOCK CAPITALS have toured with the B&I Lions)

Miscellany

– This will be Jamie Bhatti’s 25th appearance from the bench during the Townsend era – the most of any player during that period (the next highest is WP Nel on 20).

– With a combined 952 caps for Scotland, this is the most experienced matchday squad ever named by Gregor Townsend.

– There are only 4 Exiles in the 23 versus France. Since the last RWC, the only Scotland games to have featured fewer players from outwith Edinburgh and Glasgow have been the out of Test window matches against Australia and Tonga.

– The single alteration to the Scotland XV (after just one change between the England and Wales games) compares to an average of 3.8 changes to the starting lineups for other matches while the Six Nations was in progress between 2018 and 2022.

* Rest of the Milky Way