KO 3.00 at Stade de France
Sunday 26th February 2023
Live on ITV1
There is plenty of history behind this fixture, dating back to Scotland and France’s first encounter in 1910 (a 27 – 0 win for the dark blues at Inverleith) with their first clash in Paris coming a year later (a 16 – 15 triumph for Les Bleus).
This match will be the 100th meeting of the Auld Alliance – 3 at Rugby World Cups; 3 in RWC warm-ups; 1 in the Autumn Nations Cup; and 93 in the Five / Six Nations. France definitely hold the advantage with 57 wins to Scotland’s 39 – plus 3 draws. It’s notable that much of the Scots’ success was front-loaded, with 31 of their triumphs arriving in the amateur era.
Since 2016 though, Scotland have managed 5 wins against the French (from 10 attempts). That’s the same number of victories that they had managed in the previous 26 years (28 matches). Four of those successes have arrived during the Townsend era, although Toony still needs one more to equal Jim Telfer’s tally.
Scotland wins v France by head coach*:
5 – Jim Telfer (10 matches)
4 – Gregor Townsend (8 matches)
2 – Bill Dickinson (6 matches)
2 – Derrick Grant (4 matches)
2 – Ian McGeechan (10 matches)
1 – Vern Cotter (4 matches)
1 – Richie Dixon (2 matches)
1 – Frank Hadden (4 matches)
0 – Scott Johnson (2 matches)
0 – Nairn McEwan (3 matches)
0 – Andy Robinson (3 matches)
0 – Colin Telfer (1 match)
0 – Matt Williams (2 matches)
France Scouting Report
Hey Number Two
What makes Scotland’s recent levels of success against the French even more incroyable is that Les Bleus are enjoying a real upturn in fortunes. The number 2 in the world ranking currently held by France is the highest they have been when facing Scotland at any point in the last 20 years.
Their club game has always generated plenty of talent, almost certainly more than any other nation in the rugby world, but at times it doesn’t seem to have cohered into a group where everyone and everything is working together.
Of course dissension in the ranks has never been an impediment to past sensational showings by some of the greatest entertainers the game has ever seen. What Fabien Galthie and his coaching staff seem to have been able to do is point everyone in the right direction and get a consistency of performance that has eluded them for much of the Six Nations’ era – and was even rarely sighted among some of the great French sides of the past.
During the current RWC cycle, France have won 13 of their 17 Six Nations fixtures. That’s already more than the 2019 (9 wins) and 2015 cycles (8) and may well see them overtake 2003 (13) and 2011 (14). Only the 2007 group is out of reach. That generation won 17 out of 20 fixtures across 4 years in the lead up to the 2007 RWC before making an almighty mess of a tournament held (largely) on their own soil. Hang on a minute…
By way of comparison Scotland’s Six Nations match wins by RWC cycle are:
- 2023 -10
- 2019 – 9
- 2015 – 3
- 2011 – 4
- 2007 – 5
- 2003 – 7
Diligent Defence
It feels like there are almost two different French sides playing. On one hand, there is the loose, expansive team that can supply tries from anywhere, such as the worldie by Damian Penaud off the back of one loose kick by Ireland in Dublin. If the French identify a disjointed opposition line and they think it’s on then they will jouer from anywhere – 23 offloads (the most in this year’s Six Nations) attest to that.
On the other hand, there is the Shaun Edwards coached, none shall pass (except maybe the Irish), regimented defence built on hard work rather than talent that is undoubtedly the foundation of the side’s philosophy. When they have possession if they don’t like the look of the opposition defence; if their structure isn’t in place; if they’ve gone three phases and not progressed – the ball will be put in the air and there is an expectation that their own defensive prowess can win the ball back in a more advantageous position or unstructured situation.
That approach has lead to the French attempting by far the most tackles in the Championship so far – 445. Scotland are second on 413, having conceded a lot of possession and territory. With the Scots though that feels more like an anomaly they will want to fix rather than something that is in the DNA of their systems.
The French attack gets fewer opportunities than almost anyone else with just 243 carries (Scotland only have 222 due to that lack of possession, allied to a remarkable efficiency in scoring, the other members of the Six Nations average 287 carries across the first two rounds of action). France’s attack can do a lot with a little though. Despite that low number of carries they have more defenders beaten than any other side and average a broken tackle for every 3.2 runs (compared to 1 for every 3.8 carries by Scotland and 1 per 5.6 carries for the other nations).
Damian Penaud, Ethan Dumortier, Gael Fickou and Antoine Dupont are all in the top 10 for broken tackles in the Six Nations this year (number 1 for this stat is, of course, Duhan van der Merwe). That French backline spells danger for opponents unwary enough to allow them any time and space.
Miscellaneous
- France have a surprisingly low dominant tackle count of 17 – the fewest of any of the Six Nations. The French players with the most (2 each) are the contrasting pairing of (currently suspended) 152kg prop Uini Atonio and 95kg wing Damian Penaud.
- The French love to play off errors – Scotland themselves need to be ready to go when these opportunities arrive. Penaud has conceded 5 turnovers so far and half back pairing Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack have each made 5 handling errors.
- The petit general Dupont is the main French kicking option with more metres than his full back Thomas Ramos followed by the combined efforts of stand offs Ntamack and Mathieu Jalibert. That’s a contrast to Scotland where Finn Russell is the primary outlet for gaining metres from kicks, with Ben White at scrum half and then the full backs, Stuart Hogg and Blair Kinghorn, playing supporting roles.
Previous results
This will be the 12th time the two sides have met in Paris for a Six Nations’ match. The head to head looks like this from Scotland’s perspective:
L L L L L L L L L L W
Most recent meeting at the Stade de France:
France 23 – 27 Scotland
Significant stat
23 – the number of phases Scotland went through before Duhan van der Merwe crashed over for the try that clinched it. Truly one of the epic moments for Scottish rugby in 2021 – in fact, in the whole of the 21st century!
The Scottish Rugby Blog match report from that game is here.
Officials
Referee: Nika Amashukeli (Georgia)
Assistant Referee 1: Karl Dickson (England)
Assistant Referee 2: Andrea Piardi (Italy)
TMO: Ben Whitehouse (Wales)
While Mr Amashukeli is one of the up-and-coming refs World Rugby are backing, his experiences with Scottish teams have been relatively rare so far. He took charge of Glasgow’s trip to the Bulls in the URC last season and Edinburgh’s Champions Cup game against Saracens in December. This will be the Men’s Test side’s first encounter with the Georgian official.
His penalty and card stats are on the high side – particularly the pens where he averages around 25 per game in domestic action across the last two seasons. One of Scotland’s aims will be to keep the French out of their 22, so maintaining the decent discipline levels of the first couple of rounds and minimising penalties kicked to touch is likely to be crucial.
Part II of the preview, including the head to heads, will follow later in the week following the team announcement.
* Prior to 1971 there was no head coach, with the captain leading the team.
Scotland: Stuart Hogg, Kyle Steyn, Huw Jones, Sione Tuipulotu, Duhan van der Merwe, Finn Russell, Ben White; Pierre Schoeman, George Turner, Zander Fagerson, Richie Gray, Grant Gilchrist, Jamie Ritchie (capt), Hamish Watson, Matt Fagerson.
Replacements: Fraser Brown, Jamie Bhatti, WP Nel, Jonny Gray, Sam Skinner, Jack Dempsey, Ali Price, Blair Kinghorn.
29 responses
Hi guys long time reader of this page and have to say it’s my go to reading before any Scotland game! Thanks Kev for the excellent insights as usual. I’m heading to the France game this weekend for my first away game, hoping Finn plays a blinder and Scotland win! Anyone else who is going planning on going to the auld alliance before hand?
Is Crosbie injured? He’s done a lot of good, hard, tackling machine work. Mish is more than capable of tackling all day long but he is more of a fetcher. With Ritchie in the squad that’s essentially 2 x 7s, is that the right way to go?
Dropping Horne is not the way to go IMO. He has been on fire in both matches when he has came on and was key in securing the victory at Twickenham.
I’d agree that Horne coming on would usually result in an increase of pace, but maybe the intention this time is to slow things down and control the game? Toonie has got the big calls right so far this season so #InToonieWeTrust
No Harris on bench. Tough call though he did not start last week at Kingsholm either. 6 / 2 split. Agree , Horne would be better than Price , he kicks as well . I always think his injection of pace is worth points and being a wee guy, likely to get bullied, or pick up the odd seatbelt tackle . With a ref that likes a penalty and all that. He had to change the side at some stage , I suspect Crosbie is just not 100% fit. He did nothing to warrant exclusion from the 23.
A tough call on Kinghorn who has been superb when called upon, I think he’s been choosing better running lines than Hogg who seams to get caught up in traffic, I’d have Kinghorn as at least as good in the air as Hogg. Hogg may get this one on account of his boot, although Kinghorn is no shrinking violet in that regards. Still a pretty good team and great to see it’s a settled team which can only be to our advantage.
Surprised by the Watson inclusion – one of those decisions that might go either way – moment of inspiration or fall flat on your face. He doesnt seem to have shown much recent form. Guess you could say same for Price
A fast, light back row to get quick ball against heavier slower French pack, means front 5 will have to work their socks off just to stay in the game – hence 6:2 split. It’s a gamble as Steyn is only back up at centre. At least it’s clear what the aim is – I’m hopeful, so long as we can stay on right side of the Ref
This is a great point. Be interesting to see if Skinner will come on for a lock, but toonie has a situation where he can change the whole front 5 if he wants.
Centre cover is certainly a risk, but France are risking way more if someone outside of 12 goes down. We can play 6:2 and still inject some pace into the outside backs. The beauty of Blair.
For the centre cover you could put Kinghorn to 10 and Russell to 12. Not that I’m pushing for it before the mob descends, however it is one covering option at least
Jones, Tui, and Steyn are all interchangeable 13s ..Jones could also do 12 & 15 if really needed.
Russ 10 and 12
Kinghorn 1o(sigh!) wings & 15
Pretty good positional coverage…but no quality kicker OR quality 10 ..if Finn goes down.
Hmm…very harsh on Crosbie and Horne. I don’t think that does much for squad moral. Play well …win matches…and yet you can still be dropped for players that have done nothing much of recent times…but they played well historically.
I wouldn’t have picked Watson or Price ..but hey ho Im no rugby coach.
I think we looked a better side without those two players. I really liked Horne, at least off the bench, he is playing really well and adds speed and elusiveness at a time when opposition are tiring. Price is a more structured and slower type of SH..imo
Skinner is a really good 2nd row…and a poor 6 if/when used there.
Like someone else said…either it works or it’s a total fail.
White and Price are comfortable with Townsends foot on their necks…Horne still wriggles.
Just when Toony seemed to have stepped away from his tombola stall, he jettisons Horne, arguably the in-form Scottish 9 this season, from the 23 in favour of Price, a player who’s not exactly been setting the heather ablaze. Much the same can be said about catapulting Mish back into the starting line-up. Crosbie and Dempsey (the latter in particular) have every right to feel hard done by.
Maybe there’s method to Toony’s madness (I very much hope there is) but I hae my doubts.
Thats the other thing that concerns me….what if Russell gets injured…what then?
Kinghorn is a 1 for 5 kicker….against a top side where every point matters.
Horne is a much better kicker than Kinghorn. Infuriating not to have a recognized consistent kicker on the bench. Penalty conversions win or lose matches when they are tight.
Dunno what Watson has done.. in the last 18 months..to deserve getting parachuted into 7 with little game time. The last matches I watched him for Scotland I barely recognized he was playing.
Not disagreeing with much here..
However Finn hasn’t been first class off the tee this championship….missed a couple of getable kicks…could do with upping that bit…
…we certainly could miss Hornes general swiftness. Hope we don’t
I think he’s hit every kick that mattered to turn the screw at the right times. He’s a top top kicker these days for club and country, it’s part of the equation for why things are suddenly all coming together. Appreciate you are not saying otherwise!
If Russell goes off there are bigger problems than missed kicks!
Referendum: behave,Finn Russell will kick the ones that count. Name me one kicker with 100 percent record this championship. Could do without noise for no reason.
I dont see Toonie is jettisoning anyone. Horne has been great. Price is a world class no9 who has been out of form, it makes sense to be clear who is number 2. This is world cup thinking. I like this.
‘Price is a world class no9’..really!?…which top national side would he walk into?
‘who has been out of form’ ..then why is he selected over a player who IS in form and played in last 2 matches which we won?
Gadge: You must be on the wind up. I thought my time as a critic was over , but here I am back again. On the face of it , Ali Price has done nothing to warrant a recall. You are on the wind up and we are all falling for it. Grrrr
George Horne – Excellent all season starting ahead of Price and performed very well off the bench for Scotland.
Ali Price – Awful all season, started behind Horne all season. Had a good 20 minutes in the rain against Ulster.
Lets reward the 20 minutes 👍
I would have Horne starting, White made a few mistakes in the first half against Wales, looked so much better once Horne was on.
Argument for Price over White on the bench? Not really, but moreso than Price over Horne… Ridiculous.
I think the 6-2 split is a good idea against the more physical teams such as France, Ireland and South Africa. But have a recognised back-up kicker!
Not sure about Watson over Crosbie either… Watson needs to be at his pre-lions best to be considered a better option over Crosbie at the moment.
Correct on every count
Spot on.
Horne has that extra bit of zip about him that gives Finn those crucial extra moments that help him to weave his magic.
Moreover, it’s foolish to go into a Test match without a back-up/alternative place-kicker. Let’s hope we get away with it.
Really? he was pretty good in a dull Warren Lions team. If he can hang there vs SA he deserves a chance to see if his current form is a blip
He deserves a chance ? What, stupidity, he is not on form , he is not in sync with the temp of this side and will be an anchor when called on. Horne would be way too adventurous for a tiring French pack in the last 20. Are you just a nice chap ? Who will disappear as quickly as you arrived tomorrow if price makes a mess of it. Or told us so if he is average.
This is boring. Price’s current form is not good enough, as well you know, you naughty imp. France are not south Africa .
Price may , by accident , be in the right place at the right time, who knows, but for me , the right place tomorrow, is in the stand and George Horne, should be doing what he has done on the last 2 games, performing and raising the tempo to tire sides in the last 20. What we will see , is loose box kicks that are run right back at us when we are tiring. It is a fact that defending is more energy sapping than attacking.
I fear that if we are in the lead, Price will come on and box kick possession and points away. It’s his go-to trademark. He was in the ascendency when we needed faster play, when Laidlaw wasn’t at his best. Now we need a player like Horne to fill that role and play to our current strengths. Has Price ever had a word in his ear?: your overuse of box kicking ‘aint doing us any favours
I just think GT couldn’t resist tinkering. I feel he should have left it well alone…and if he had to change anything added Healy to the bench… in 5-3 split ..a recognized quality kicker and natural 10.
Watching Italy …we could just as easily be facing 3 straight defeats never mind the 6N. Either we’ll sink or swim…
Just when you start hoping GT has finally begun to get things right. Jings