KO 2.15 at BT Murrayfield
Sunday 13th November 2022
Live on Amazon Prime Video
New Zealand. The All Blacks. The only one of the 23 nations that Scotland have faced in Test rugby without winning a single game. Even in an era when the Kiwis are not at the peak of their powers, history means that this remains the ultimate challenge for a Scottish rugby team.
Across 117 years, the best the dark blues can point to from these matches are two draws (25-all in 1983 and, quite remarkably, 0-0 in 1964). In their other 29 meetings, Scotland have only finished the game less than a score down on four occasions:
- 1954 Scotland 0 – 3 New Zealand
- 1972 Scotland 9 – 14 New Zealand
- 1990 New Zealand 21 – 18 Scotland
- 2017 Scotland 17 – 22 New Zealand
Was that game five years ago the dark blues’ best chance of breaking their duck in the pro era? Or can they build on the template set by that performance – combining moments of great skill with huge tenacity and aggression, harassing and disrupting their illustrious opponents?
New Zealand Scouting Report
Ball-carrying blitz
How do you solve a problem like Savea? Well, with a bit of luck New Zealand will give the indefatigable Ardie Savea the weekend off! The number 8 was at the heart of a dominant performance – on both sides of the ball – from the All Blacks against Wales last week.
The Welsh forwards were seriously shut down by their opponents managing just 75 metres ball in hand from 63 carries. They couldn’t break a single tackle. In fact, if it hadn’t been for 35-year-old Ken Owens (12 carries for 13m) and a week shy of being 32-years-old Taulupe Faletau (15 carries for 30m) things might have been even worse for Wales.
These struggles were in stark contrast to New Zealand’s big men who were overpowering in possession. 216m from 92 carries (39m from 15 carries for Savea). 14 defenders beaten plus a clean break (6 + 1 coming from Savea). If there’s something to cling onto for Scotland it’s that all the tackle busts came from the starting back row and replacement hooker Samesoni Taukei’aho. Can the Scots close the gap somewhat by really fronting up in the tight 5?
The nature of the task ahead of them does rather suggest changes in the dark blues’ pack could be beneficial. Promoting Ewan Ashman, Jonny Gray and Jack Dempsey from the bench would add size and power. The younger Gray’s ability to put in endless amounts of tackles could be essential as well.
Both Ireland (in their series-clinching 3rd Test) and Argentina (in their first-ever win away to New Zealand) had to put in more than double the tackles that the Kiwis did to pull off historic wins. Scotland may well need to stick 200+ hits at Murrayfield on Sunday.
Men in the middle
Evolution? Experimentation? Simple necessity? However it has ultimately come about, the Jordie Barrett / Rieko Ioane centre partnership has solidified an area of the All Blacks’ team that had been more down than up over the last 12 months.
In Cardiff last week, the duo were just too much for Wales to handle. The Kiwi centres combined for 95m off 18 carries with 2 clean breaks and 6 defenders beaten. That followed on from their inaugural appearance as a combination when Australia were put to the sword 40 – 14 and the midfielders contributed 179m, a dozen tackle busts and one clean break from 21 carries.
Against the Welsh, New Zealand’s tactic of playing close to the breakdown helped make the centres a real focal point. A remarkable lack of width in their play though did mean that the combined talents of Beauden Barrett, Sevu Reece and Caleb Clarke in the starting back 3 made just 22m with ball in hand.
Some might question the midfielders’ distribution skills, but at inside centre the youngest Barrett brother made the same number of passes (5) as his stand off, Richie Mo’unga. It did feel like a choice from the All Blacks to simplify their game and target breaking down Wales through the middle.
With Scotland’s defensive systems a little more susceptible to being tested out wide, the New Zealand back 3 may see more of the ball at Murrayfield. Even so, the home side will need to find ways to nullify the Barrett / Ioane combination. Might Gregor Townsend be planning to link up Sione Tuipulotu and Chris Harris to try and counter the Kiwis’ physicality?
Miscellany
- New Zealand have dropped as low as 5th in the world this year – although they could still finish 2022 with a 69% winning percentage if they are victorious in their last 2 games on this tour.
- The Kiwis only lost 1 of their 114 rucks against Wales and will be exceptionally difficult to prise the ball away from.
- They conceded 9 breakdown/tackle penalties which suggests they will be incredibly aggressive around the ruck and contact areas when the Scots are in possession.
Previous results
This will be the ninth time the two sides have met in Scotland this century. The head to head looks like this from the home side’s perspective:
L L L L L L L L
Most recent meeting in Edinburgh:
Scotland 17 – 22 New Zealand
Significant stat
177 – carries made by Scotland, the most in any game at Murrayfield during the Townsend era. This was an across the board performance with backs (Stuart Hogg 17, Finn Russell 15, Huw Jones 12) and forwards (Jonny Gray 17, John Barclay 14, Cornell du Preez 12) all contributing. Good ball retention in most parts of the pitch meant that the home side were able to dominate territory (65%) and possession (60%).
Every time the ball entered the All Blacks’ 22 though the intensity went up and turnovers increased – not always through legal means on the defending side’s part it has to be said! Scotland will feel that they need to be more efficient in possession this time round if there is to be any chance of an historic first win over New Zealand.
The Scottish Rugby Blog match report from that game is here.
Officials
Referee: Frank Murphy (Ireland)
Assistant Referee 1: Andrew Brace (Ireland)
Assistant Referee 2: Chris Busby (Ireland)
TMO: Tom Foley (England)
While Mr Murphy will be a familiar face to much of the Scotland squad from numerous games in the URC, this will be his very first time taking charge of a Scotland match.
There is double duty for Mr Brace this weekend as he will also be AR1 for Italy v Australia in Florence a little over 24 hours before kick-off at Murrayfield.
Teams
Scotland: Stuart Hogg, Darcy Graham, Chris Harris, Sione Tuipulotu, Duhan van der Merwe, Finn Russell, Ali Price; Pierre Schoeman, Fraser Brown, Zander Fagerson, Richie Gray, Grant Gilchrist, Jamie Ritchie (capt), Hamish Watson, Matt Fagerson.
Replacements: Ewan Ashman, Rory Sutherland, WP Nel, Jonny Gray, Jack Dempsey, Ben White, Blair Kinghorn, Mark Bennett.
New Zealand: J Barrett, M Telea, A Lienert-Brown, D Havili, C Clarke, B Barrett, F Christie; E De Groot, S Taukei’aho, N Laulala, S Whitelock (capt), S Barrett, A Ioane, D Papali’i, A Savea
Replacements: C Taylor, G Bower, F Newell, T Vaa’i, S Frizell, TJ Perenara, S Perofeta, R Ioane