Scotland v New Zealand: Autumn Nations Series 2022, Match Preview pt I

47 responses

1. Oh how the weight of the week is lifted through the decision to bring back Finn. Here’s to hope. Here’s to victory. Lets get behind these boys – COME ON SCOTLAND!

   1. Sandy Come on SCOTLAND . The wait is almost over and I can get the Weight off my mind at last. I just need to see the team and I can see us really taking it to the All blacks. We are gonna Haka them all about the pitch , SCOTLAND TO WIN.

2. Tom English teasing a big surprise selection in pack. I’m guessing Mish out and Crosbie in, perhaps to bench with Dempsey starting perhaps straight into starting line up in true Tombola starting.

   Optimist me says we were in a prop injury crisis in 2017 and almost got a result. Pessimist me says we are nowhere near as coherent as a team now and Toonie is clearly struggling for ideas on how to find improvement in the squad.

   Pessimist me to win by 20pts I suspect :(

   1. Speaking of 2017 and props, all joking aside, what did happen to Daryl Marfo in the end?

      1. Regression to the mean I think

3. Could this be a stroke of genius on Townsend’s part? The ultimate ‘Rope a Dope’! Having hoodwinked everyone over the past two years with underwhelming performances, an unrecognisable team based on recent selections, and picked on form, takes the field. The tactics are not the choreographed dirge expected but rather driven by the strengths of the players who have full licence to play the game as they see it.

   1. Wait what? Those two years of underwhelming performances include winning in Twickenham and Paris in 2021, breaking two long standing hoodoos.

4. Is there a Longstanding Hoodoo about winning away from home in an empty stadium.

5. Try Google. He may have a real job now.

6. Frank Murphy as ref, What do we think of that then ? my thoughts, he may be a bit intimidated by the AB’s. However , maybe he will give us a break.

   1. Either way, we need to minimise penalties and keep everyone on the pitch to have a chance against the AB.

      1. The likely hood of Zander, Hogg and Brown keeping their heads?…probably a better chance of winning a national lottery.

7. Team as latterly expected.
   Being positive its a strong physical looking team. Not what I’d have picked but COME ON SCOTLAND

8. Pretty much as expected for the team then. I know Cam Redpath wasn’t that great last weekend but I would still pick him ahead of an out of position Tuipulotu who has offered little at 12. I would also have started Ashman ahead of Brown, give youth a chance ahead of the perma injured yesterdays man. Not much to say about the rest, preferably include either of the wingers getting the ball at some point in the tactics.

   I wonder if we would see Kinghorn come on at 10 and Russell at 12 at some point? I definitely don’t like Kinghorn as a 10 but what he does have is an excellent running game and he could create space for Finn to work some of his magic.

   Not a bad team but when you realise it is the third midfield arrangement in as many games you wonder how on earth a team is supposed to build confidence with zero continuity.

9. More or less as expected. Seems safe, if predictable. I don’t think we’ll offer much surprise in attack unless they’ve worked how to include DG and DVM more. Not too sure about Tuipulotu, doesn’t make sense to me to play him at 12 – would have preferred Redpath. I think we’ll see BK on at 12 for a wild throw of the dice at some point….. Also hope Dempsey gets some time, I would have started with him. Looking forward to it!

10. Why the hell is Ashman not starting??? Brown is past his best and can be a liability in terms of penalties. Given Redpath is back with Bath, pretty much the expected team, though imagine no-one’s overly happy with Tuipulotu playing out of position at 12. Half expected a 6-2 split with BK’s versatility on the bench and Russell could cover 12 if needed. Pack really needs to have their best game ever to provide quick ball at the breakdown. Just don’t think the coaching team are doing fans or the players any favours with crazy selection choices, lack of clear tactics and the farcical soap opera that is the Toonie Russell show.

    1. Townsend in the YouTube video mentioned Ashman had a knock (as had Turner).

11. If Ashman has had a knock then it’s understandable for him to be replaced but with Brown the penalty machine?. I take it Cherry is still injured too. What has happened to Stuart Mcinally? He would normally be my first pick but I know his darts were off, but Ashman apart, all our hookers are having a difficult time with throwing.
    The Centre partnership is uninspiring too, puts a lot of strain on the boy wonder to unlock the NZ defence with those too either side. Oh to have a crash ball merchant like Dunbar available or a distributer like Redpath.
    This was a game made for Skinner too , Gray offers security in the lineout but I just don’t think he offers enough around the paddock and let’s face it there will be a lot of running around to do on Sunday.
    On the plus side it’s as strong a bench as I have seen in a while.

    1. How pessimistic, this game is made for the Hogg coming into the line, scaring the all Blacks with his dancing feet and broken field running. It is Hoggs day, time for him to walk the talk.

       Personally, I think they will just see him as a silly boy to be targeted all day long.

       1. Don’t forget that SH doesn’t pass too much just like Karney of Ireland. Easy to defend

       2. I don’t want to get into anymore Hogg venting…I feel like I over vented recently regarding his current play.
          He is selected to play and so I hope he finds his best form and has a good game. As far as what he needs to do I think… is use his strength as a runner and his eye for an open channel to really challenge that NZ defense. He needs to show more composure when he finds the running lanes so that any offloads are worthy of the run. This will , in the absence of a natural 12 distributor, help create space and time for Finn to make his passes and bring the wings into the match.
          He also needs to stay calm and steady at the back.. avoid rash challenges I hope he is practicing those high catches and last line defense…because I think he’ll be targeted in that regard.

          FB is an important spot in the current game …which is why J Barrett is selected there despite playing really well as a centre.

       3. Hogg averages 8.4 passes per 80 minutes during the Townsend era. That’s more than any Scotland player outwith the half backs.

       4. Ruggers, the days for pointing out Hogg’s shortfalls to one eyed, doting fans , who dont understand the basics of the game are no longer necessary. He is managing to do it all himself.

          The All Blacks are none of the above, a well drilled machine that like all predatory animals works out whom they need to stifle to weaken the herd. He even looks like a target these days.

       5. What I like about the New Zealand All Black is that they come onto the pitch with a reputation of menace. Head to toe in Black, no coloured boots, other than traditional tribal long hair, no faddy hair cuts, they look like a team. They do not behave like wee boys, there is not one asking to give the ball to me, they are not focussed on giving the ball to the biggest guy , or the fastest guy, like the 1st Year school rugby team. They play like a team, they never give up and if last time we met,they had been attacking , in the closing minutes, no All Black would have left his cover players in the fool hardy attitude he could beat three of them. They would stick together , force the penalty, take the line out, drive over and bring the backs in as necessary to do so, win the game with a kick. That is the New Zealand All Black they do not see one any better than the other, just 15 All Black Warriors.

12. If Harris is starting then we’ll be at least 30 points down by half time!

    1. Yep, due to famously bad defender Chris Harris

13. Toonie’s clearly running out of ways to surprise us, and has decided that the biggest surprise now is being safe and consistent.

    Only one change to the starting lineup that wasn’t due to an injury. I’m gutted about that change, mind – I’ve got such high hopes for Redpath. I thought his quality at 12 last week was pretty evident. He made twice as many metres per carry and beat twice as many defenders as Sione did against Australia. Crucially, with Redpath in the team, Duhan and Darcy both doubled their number of carries. I don’t know how much of that is down to Redpath, but the when we played Russell/Redpath/Harris against England in 2021, that’s most relaxed I’ve ever been watching Scotland play a big team (up until the last minute kamikaze drop goal). I was dying to see it again.

    But I can’t help but get excited again now. There’s every chance we’ll be smashed, but this endlessly frustrating group of people has the chance on Sunday to do something that no Scottish team has ever done before. They’ve smashed a fair few long-standing records in the past couple of years, but this is a big one. You’ve got to enjoy the anticiaption.

14. Hogg will need to come into 2nd receiver if we want ball to go any further than Tuipulotu/Harris bashing into the 1st body in black.
    It is peculiar re Redpath (1.if he’s being saved for next week – why let him play for Bath. 2. If hes not being saved why release him) when he would appear to be perfect foil for Russell.

15. Its an opportunity for Scotland….NZ have selected a team that looks a hybrid of 1st choice and a B side.

    I hope at the end it we aren’t all feeling…the chance was there and we didn’t take it….at the very least I hope we leave it all out there.

    1. I’d love us to win but I just can’t see it, not with Toony’s team selection.

       Brown is a liability, a hooker who can’t throw well and who is very philanthropic when it comes to giving away penalties. Ashman should have started.

       Mish is a great player but he’s not at his best. At this point in time, Crosbie would be a better bet.

       I know Price is a Lion, but he’s not our best SH. Horne or White would be a better option.

       Tuipulotu and Harris will work their socks off but Redpath should be at 12 and Bennett at 13. We need to take the game to the ABs and make use of our talented wingers.

       Hogg isn’t the broken field threat he once was. Yes, he’s got an anvil for a kicking foot but that’s about all he’s got over our other options at 15. Kinghorn should have started.

       I could be wrong – and let’s hope I am – but I have a nasty feeling that we’ll be on the end of a walloping on Sunday.

       1. Well I think we’ll see which players are great and not so great… NZ and SA are the acid tests in rugby whether they are placed 1st 5th whatever .. they are the benchmark.
          If players can’t show their best against them they never will.

          Not the side I’d have selected .. but what do I know?? That said 2 X 13s and Brown( atrocious discipline)Urgh!.. I can’t see a win… just as usual hope for one.

    2. Never under estimate NZ B teams as they want to push to get into the A team. The player quality is much deeper than most other countries

16. who do we think will play well ?

17. During his 55-cap Scotland career, Fraser Brown has conceded 24 penalties and been sin binned once. He averages a penalty conceded for every 81 minutes played at Test level. The other hookers in the current squad average a penalty conceded for every 69 minutes played (Ewan Ashman) and every 88 minutes played (George Turner).

    1. Interesting stats!.. and for sure I was thinking Brown had a higher rate than that. The thing about penalties is also where, when and how they are conceded. Stats don’t always reflect their relevance.
       Also Ashman has barely had opportunity to settle at test level and so it would be interesting to compare if or when Ashman accumulates a suitable amount of caps.
       I’d take Ashman over Brown every time. .. just simply looks a better test level player.

    2. I suspected as much. Nicely done with the stats. Fraser Brown has been an important player for Scotland over the years, but along with about half of our squad he gets tainted by the echo chamber of negative criticism on here. It doesn’t have to be true to become an accepted reality among us, and as Scotland fans we love to focus on the negatives don’t we?

       1. Definitely agree with the last statement SlowWalk90. The level of criticism around this fairly conventional selection is a bit over the top. We all have our favourites but there aren’t any real head scratchers now Russell is back in the side. Not the side I’d pick either but not sure it changes our prospects all that much.

       2. He is a penalty machine, stats make no difference that is what he is , but he is also a great jackler, they forgot that . But the point is if we think he is a penalty machine , the ref will think he is penalty machine . Richie will not be quoting statistics to Mr Murphy before the game , will he !!!

    3. Statistics are useful in context. How does that average get worked out, is it every minute on the park or do you simply multiply caps x 80 minutes divided by penalties ?

       So If I take Ashman 5 caps , 15 points, but how many games did he start ? As a BTW Brown is 55 caps and 25 points (Source Wikipedia)

       You do not need to do the maths to work out which is more productive. But there will be reasons, like he played against weaker sides than Brown.

       However I could take these statistics and come to the conclusion that for all Ashman gives away a penalty faster than brown , he scores much , much more , so the better choice is Ashman.

       Useful in context and not looking at one in isolation. Rugby fans want entertained and their side to win, Sometime statistics make no difference , if the face fits , it fits.

       1. Warmer – it’s total minutes played divided by pens conceded.

          My main point was not so much to say Ashman was somehow worse but more that all 3 are very similar – there’s a difference of 0.2 of a penalty per 80 minutes across the 3 of them which is very little.

       2. Buddy – refs do performance analysis too. They will be well aware of the reality rather than any perception.

18. Savea is the best player in the world at the moment – if he isn’t player of the year I will be very surprised.

    Russell is in a bit of a tough position here – winning against New Zealand is a very big ask and if we don’t Townsend may use it as a “this is why I don’t pick Russell” justification. Hopefully he has a strong game.

    Suspect we will be 20-30 points down by the end, but there’s always hope. I just hope we at least have a solid game and look competitive – not the usual shambles and stupid penalties.

    1. If we lose to NZ it will have no reflection on Russell, unless he plays like an absolute drain, as nobody expects us to win. If we get hammered by 20-30pts it isn’t going to be because of the FH, like Wales it’ll be because we get marmalised up front.

       It’s mostly upside for Russell. If he performs well it’ll cement his place back as our starting 10, if he’s poor it’ll be much of a muchness with the other 10 performances which haven’t stood out and can be put down to difficult circumstances rejoining the team.

       The real story is can we show we can be competitive against a SH giant we’ve never beaten? It has been a long time since Scotland have produced a satisfactory performance but if playing NZ doesn’t inspire you, you shouldn’t be playing test rugby. Big chance to change the narrative around the squad at the moment, probably not one they will take but that is because I am very pessimistic about the current state of the side.

       1. I hope we do well and we could win, no pressure on us. It will be nothing to so with one man if we lose.

       2. We’ve been sloppy in execution most of this year. It will take a performance level of minimal turnovers and penalties to compete. We just haven’t looked capable of doing that this year.

          NZ clearly see us as lower grade opposition to even Wales.. let alone England…judging by the team they selected.

          I think if our forwards dont dominate then we haven’t got a scoobies of competing let alone winning.

          We have excellent wingers we are not getting the ball out to. NZ select multiple players with distribution quality…we selected 1.

19. As an aside, congrats to Holly Davidson who had a great game as ref in the Women’s World Cup final today. Clear, precise communication and did not bottle on the red card

    1. Yep…pretty much what you want in a referee. Clear, concise, firm and consistent with law interpretation.