Scotland v Samoa, RWC 2019: Match Preview pt II – head to heads

Japan’s superb win over Ireland has added a fresh wrinkle in Scotland’s quest for a quarter-final slot. What hasn’t changed is that Gregor Townsend’s men need victories in their three remaining pool fixtures. A potential three-way battle in Pool A does mean bonus points are properly in the mix now. That puts winning matches by scoring tries at the top of the Scottish agenda, starting with this game against Samoa.

Tale of the tape

BACKS
50   Tries   31
92kg   Average weight   93kg
260   Total caps   106
25   RWC caps   17
0   RWC debutants   1
28.1   Average age   29.3

FORWARDS
903kg   Pack weight   924kg
18   Tries   12
201   Total caps   151
17   RWC caps   18
2   RWC debutants   0
27.6   Average age   29.5

SUBSTITUTES
12   Tries   4
199   Total caps   94
17   RWC caps   4
3   RWC debutants   4
27.1   Average age   28.8

5 changes to Scotland starting XV from last Test (v Ireland)

• 14 – Graham for Seymour [+]
• 13 – Harris for Taylor [=]
• 6 – Bradbury for Barclay [+]
• 7 – Watson for Ritchie [-]
• 8 – Thomson for Wilson [=]

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Overall

Backs – advantage Scotland

Samoa have lost scrum half Dwayne Polataivao (injury) and Rey Lee-Lo from the backline that started against Russia. Cardiff Blues’ Lee-Lo of course was one of the players who ripped the Scottish defence to shreds during these two sides’ last RWC clash in 2015. As mentioned in Part 1 of the preview they have twin playmakers at 10 and 15 and plenty of pace and power out wide.

Scotland’s own attempts to play the game primarily through the hands of Finn Russell and Stuart Hogg as distributors foundered on the oppressive Irish rush defence. Expect a little more variety this week but ultimately it comes down to how well the players can execute under pressure. Fractions of a second difference in winning the ball or getting a pass away can turn a line break into a turnover.

Forwards – advantage Scotland

Another two changes for Samoa and again it’s one due to injury (Afa Amosa at number 8) and one due to suspension (Motu Matu’u at hooker). Replacement number 2 Ray Niuia was superb off the bench last week and captain Jack Lam returns from his own injury to go head to head with his former Hurricanes’ teammate Blade Thomson at number 8 so there is no drop off in quality in the pack.

Scotland have picked this tight 5 or a slight variant of it (either with Simon Berghan for Willem Nel or Ben Toolis for Jonny Gray) in 9 of their last 11 matches. It should be one of the strongest units Scotland has ever selected – but they need to put in the performance to prove that. The back row has seen a complete overhaul and the new trio will have their hands full. Scottish possession has to be cleaner and opposition ball more disrupted than was the case last week.

Subs – advantage Scotland

Scottish depth looks pretty good on paper. Translating that onto an impact on the game is a different matter though! Gregor Townsend will be hoping he can choose how best to use his subs this week rather than having to firefight injuries. The dream scenario is to be in control of the game and to get the Hornstings partnership on early to prepare them for starting against Russia in the next fixture. There’s an awful lot of rugby to be played before that and it may be that Greig Laidlaw and Finn Russell need to stay out there until the job is done.

Miscellany

– 9 players in the Scottish 23 featured the last time these two teams met at a World Cup. Just 4 Samoans were involved in that end to end match at St James’ Park in Newcastle 4 years ago.

– Gregor Townsend has only twice named more experienced 23s than the group selected for this game (660 caps).

– Jordan Lay will be the only former Scottish pro team player that the dark blues come up against in these pool stages. The Samoan prop was with Edinburgh for part of the 2017-18 season.

– The matchday squad is split almost exactly between players who made their Test debuts in the current RWC cycle (11) and those whose international careers kicked off before the 2015 tournament (12).

– Blade Thomson has yet to take a lineout in his Scotland career. Given he started the 2018/19 season as Scarlets’ primary jumper expect to see him become a much bigger factor in the setpiece as the tournament progresses.