Scotland v Ireland, RWC 2019: Match Preview pt II – head to heads

Things are rather different now compared to when Scotland and Ireland last met in a World Cup match during the 1991 tournament. In those days it was the Scots who started the game with the whip hand over their Celtic cousins having only lost twice in their previous 8 meetings. The dark blues were coming off the back of a Grand Slam in 1990. Ireland were the perennial wooden spoon contenders.

Now the roles have reversed. Scotland’s upturn in fortunes in recent years provides some hope though. History teaches us that things move in cycles and fortunes can change. Could this be the start of a more positive era for Scotland?

Tale of the tape

BACKS
65   Tries   61
92kg   Average weight   94kg
311   Total caps   254
22   RWC caps   17
2   RWC debutants   5
29.5   Average age   27.5

FORWARDS
887kg   Pack weight   894kg
23   Tries   35
319   Total caps   425
19   RWC caps   28
3   RWC debutants   3
29.5   Average age   29.1

SUBSTITUTES
16   Tries   14
151   Total caps   117
8   RWC caps   0
6   RWC debutants   8
27.6   Average age   27.1

10 changes to Scotland starting XV from last Test (v Georgia)

• 15 – Hogg for Kinghorn [+]
• 11 – Maitland for Graham [+]
• 10 – Russell for Hastings [+]
• 9 – Laidlaw for Price [+]
• 1 – Dell for Reid [+]
• 2 – McInally for Turner [+]
• 3 – Nel for Fagerson [+]
• 4 – Gilchrist for Cummings [+]
• 6/8 – Barclay for Thomson with Wilson moving from 6 to 8 [+]
• 7 – Watson for Ritchie [+]

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Overall

Backs – even

Ireland’s backline stocks are pretty thin on the ground in Japan. All 10 available players have been selected in the 23 with, seemingly, Rob Kearney, Keith Earls, Robbie Henshaw and Joey Carbery all not ready to feature following injury. There’s no significant drop off in quality (and maybe a bit more attacking flair) but there’s certainly far less experience out wide.

That’s not an issue for Scotland – Stuart Hogg, Tommy Seymour and Sean Maitland have shared 159 caps and 50 tries amongst themselves. It’s the battle at 10 that may well be where this game is won and lost though. Finn Russell and Johnny Sexton will set the tone for their teams. They’ve only gone head to head on 4 previous occasions for club and country with the Irishman winning all 4 of those. Can Finn’s brilliance overturn the proven big game performer?

Forwards – advantage Ireland

Both sides have been able to add some strength to the packs compared to their previous meeting 7 months ago during the Six Nations. Iain Henderson and CJ Stander add even more physicality to an already brutal pack. Scotland will have to hope that bringing in Willem Nel, John Barclay and Hamish Watson allows them to be more competitive up front than they were at Murrayfield.

Subs – even

The respective coaches will be pretty comfortable with the quality of their bench options. If things go to plan though a lot of key players could go deep into the match before subs are even considered. The most likely game changers are Tadhg Beirne for Ireland – who could alter the flow at the breakdown if required – and Darcy Graham for Scotland – who can create scores from the least promising of circumstances.

Miscellany

–  Captain Stuart McInally will be the 150th player to feature for Scotland in a Rugby World Cup match.

–  Combinations can often be key. Here’s how frequently each of the Scottish teams’ units have started together for the national side:

• Front row – 6th time (plus another 4 for Edinburgh)
• Second row – 13th
• Back row – 11th
• Half backs – 34th
• Centres – 2nd
• Back 3 – 20th (plus 7 for Glasgow)

– Old lags John Barclay and Rory Best both played in the 2007 edition of the RWC. John is returning to World Cup action after a gap of just under 8 years since his last appearance against England in Auckland.

– 7 of Scotland’s XV also started the dark blues’ last RWC match against Australia. 4 Irishmen return from their 2015 quarter final versus Argentina.

– All 6 of the players who have been named to captain matches in the Townsend era are included in the starting lineup.

– The last competitive match for 18 of these players was the PRO14 final in May. The rain may feel very familiar from that day – although the temperature almost certainly will not!

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Missed part 1? Check it out here. Featuring the previous history between these two sides; Ireland scouting report; and Scotland’s record with Mr Barnes as referee.