The most recent encounter between these two sides was the inaugural Doddie Weir Cup match at the Principality Stadium earlier this season. 28 of the 46 players who contested that game return this time round, 13 for Scotland and 15 for Wales, with the Cup again up for grabs. Who benefits most from the changes made?
Tale of the tape
BACKS
36 Tries 79
89kg Average weight 95kg
172 Total caps 291
78 6N caps 133
26.1 Average age 28.2
FORWARDS
900kg Pack weight 906kg
16 Tries 21
186 Total caps 372
73 6N caps 173
27.6 Average age 28.1
SUBSTITUTES
214 Total caps 181
92 6N caps 76
15 Tries 6
28.8 Average age 25.1
4 changes to Scotland starting XV from last Test (v France)
- 11 – Graham for Maitland [-]
- 10/12 – Russell for Johnson with Horne to 12 [+]
- 9 – Price for Laidlaw [-]
- 3 – Nel for Berghan [+]
15 Blair Kinghorn
14 Tommy Seymour
13 Nick Grigg
12 Peter Horne
11 Darcy Graham
10 Finn Russell
9 Ali Price
ADV Wales
EVEN
ADV Wales
EVEN
ADV Wales
ADV Scotland
EVEN
15 Liam Williams
14 George North
13 Jonathan Davies
12 Hadleigh Parkes
11 Josh Adams
10 Gareth Anscombe
9 Gareth Davies
1 Allan Dell
2 Stuart McInally (c)
3 Willem Nel
4 Grant Gilchrist
5 Jonny Gray
6 Magnus Bradbury
7 Jamie Ritchie
8 Josh Strauss
ADV Wales
EVEN
ADV Scotland
ADV Scotland
ADV Wales
ADV Wales
EVEN
ADV Wales
1 Rob Evans
2 Ken Owens
3 Tomas Francis
4 Adam Beard
5 Alun-Wyn Jones (c)
6 Josh Navidi
7 Justin Tipuric
8 Ross Moriarty
16 Fraser Brown
17 Gordon Reid
18 Simon Berghan
19 Ben Toolis
20 Hamish Watson
21 Greig Laidlaw
22 Adam Hastings
23 Byron McGuigan
ADV Scotland
ADV Wales
ADV Scotland
EVEN
ADV Scotland
ADV Scotland
ADV Wales
EVEN
16 Elliot Dee
17 Nicky Smith
18 Dillon Lewis
19 Jake Ball
20 Aaron Wainwright
21 Aled Davies
22 Dan Biggar
23 Owen Watkin
Overall
Backs – advantage Wales
Part 1 of the preview picked out Liam Williams and Josh Adams as the Welsh danger men. Both players have been hugely influential in this Six Nations so far. Scotland have tried to use intelligent kicking in their home games against Italy and Ireland to work their way into the right areas of the pitch. There will be even less margin for error on these kicks with the Welsh back 3 prowling.
Scotland’s 9-10-12-13 axis should know each other well from their days together at Glasgow – although they only started together as a complete unit on 3 occasions for the Warriors before Finn Russell left for France.
Forwards – advantage Wales
The Scottish forwards have been taking their lumps from various sources (one in particular pulled no punches) during this season’s Six Nations. They’ve actually been outworking their Welsh counterparts though, averaging 75 carries per game as a group compared to 65 for Wales. It’s been more effective graft too with a gain line success of 41% (Wales – 32%) and 13 broken tackles (Wales – 2).
Wales definitely have the edge in terms of experience, plus a recent history of showing they can shut Scotland down, but any Welsh fans heading to Murrayfield thinking their side are just going to roll over a powder puff pack may be in for a slightly unpleasant surprise.
Subs – advantage Scotland
Gregor Townsend has only once named a more experienced bench than this selection during his tenure. The reserves against Australia in Sydney had 264 caps compared to 214 for Saturday’s game. The head coach will be hoping his replacements are coming on to a positive situation when he starts to use the bench!
Miscellany
– There is only one change to this Welsh starting XV from the one which opened the tournament against France, Gareth Davies replacing Tomos Williams at scrum half.
– By contrast Stuart Hogg, Huw Jones, Sam Johnson, Greig Laidlaw, Ben Toolis, Sam Skinner and Ryan Wilson all started against Italy but are replaced by Darcy Graham, Nick Grigg, Peter Horne, Ali Price, Jonny Gray, Magnus Bradbury and Josh Strauss in the current lineup.
– During the Townsend era the split between tries scored by forwards and backs has been very different for Six Nations’ games compared to other matches. The proportion of tries for the pack:
- Summer Tests – 46%
- Autumn Tests – 39%
- Six Nations – 11%
– Toony and the coaching staff will be looking for more impact from their forwards in the dangerous areas of the pitch.
– This game brings a home debut for Darcy Graham after a couple of caps on the road. It will almost feel like home debuts for Nick Grigg (8 minutes off the bench against England his only previous experience of Test rugby at Murrayfield) and Magnus Bradbury (nearly 2½ years since he got his first cap against Argentina in Edinburgh).
– Of the 1,103 players who have featured for Scotland’s men’s team over the past 148 years, just 40 have notched up 50 or more caps so far. Tommy Seymour and Jonny Gray will join that elite group on Saturday.
– In his 9 starts for Scotland, Blair Kinghorn has played alongside 7 different players and in 8 different combinations in the back 3.