Scotland v Wales, Six Nations 2023: Match Preview pt II – head to heads

There are 15 changes to the Welsh 23 compared to when these sides last met – a game played in Cardiff 12 months ago. Scotland themselves have 10 new faces in their matchday squad. Both teams have been evolving in recent years. The only players to start in this game and the two most recent Celtic encounters in 2022 and 2021 are Stuart Hogg, Finn Russell and Duhan van der Merwe for the home side and Adam Beard, Dan Biggar, Wyn Jones and Liam Williams for the visitors.

Tale of the tape

BACKS
72   Tries   100
98kg   Average weight   93kg
247   Total caps  388
129   6N caps   163
28.2   Average age   28.0

FORWARDS
926kg   Pack weight   899kg
18   Tries   13
301   Total caps  237
122  6N caps   99
28.6   Average age   26.2

SUBSTITUTES
311   Total caps   285
129  6N caps  124
32  Tries  39
30.4   Average age   29.9

1 change to Scotland starting XV from last Test (v England)

• 3 – Z Fagerson for Nel [+]

BACK 3 – ADVANTAGE WALES

CENTRES – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND

HALF BACKS – EVEN

FRONT ROW – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND

SECOND ROW – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND

BACK ROW – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND

FORWARD REPLACEMENTS – EVEN

BACK REPLACEMENTS – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND

(Players in BLOCK CAPITALS have toured with the B&I Lions)

Overall

Backs – even

There should be some really good battles in all areas of the backline. On the occasion of his 100th Test (98 for Scotland and 2 for the Lions), Stuart Hogg will no doubt relish the opportunity to take on Liam Williams with both full backs supported by in form wingers. The Scots will feel their back 3 trio could have the edge following last week’s respective showings but ultimately it’s down to delivering on the day – which the Welsh have managed better the last couple of years in these fixtures.

Sione Tuipulotu stands out as currently the outstanding player among the centres on show. His relationship and understanding with Finn Russell on his inside and Huw Jones on his outside will be crucial. In the half backs Russell v Dan Biggar is a clash of attitudes as much as styles of play. The visitors’ playmaker has a strong case as the best 10 ever to play the game when it comes to recovering high balls and he will look to cause chaos in the Scottish defence with a variety of kicks.

Behind the respective packs, Tomos Williams was maybe unlucky to miss out on the most recent Lions’ tour but Ben White’s emergence has been a bit of a revelation for Scotland. The London Irish scrum half just gets all his basics done with the minimum of fuss and is proving to be a fine foil for Finn.

Forwards – advantage Scotland

Pierre Schoeman, Zander Fagerson, Grant Gilchrist and Matt Fagerson have all started 16 of Scotland’s last 18 Test matches. George Turner and Jamie Ritchie have both started the majority of those games, as have one or other of the Gray brothers. Aside from Luke Crosbie (probably the form Scottish back row over the last 12 months) for Hamish Watson, this is a pretty settled set of Scottish forwards.

It’s the cohesion in that spine of the team that the coaching staff will be looking to win an advantage over the Welsh pack. The visitors are undoubtedly talented but also pretty raw and inexperienced in some areas. In recent years these roles have usually been reversed. When Wales travelled to Murrayfield two years ago their starting pack had 518 caps and 5 players who had been on a Lions tour compared to 196 caps and no Lions for the home side (this year it’s Wales 237, Scotland 301 in caps and Wales 3, Scotland 2 for Lions).

Subs – advantage Scotland

With 311 Scotland caps behind them, this is the most experienced bench named by the national side for any fixture during the last six seasons. Wales aren’t exactly short of experience to call on either. In fact, across the 16 substitutes, uncapped lock Rhys Davies is the only player aged under 25.

Miscellany

– This is the first time that there has only been a single change to the players in a Scotland 23 during the Townsend era (the next fewest was 2 – Ireland 2018, England 2020 and Wales 2022).

– It’s the third time in this period that there has been just one alteration to the starting XV. The only occasion when an unchanged side was named was against England in 2018.

– Richie Gray will play his 4th Test in the last 14 weeks. That’s more international rugby than he played in the preceding 294 weeks.

– With an average weight of 106.5kg, the Scottish starting XV is the heaviest named for any match in the Townsend era.

– Ken Owens has played 9 times against Scotland. He has been on the losing side just once (in 2017). Alex Cuthbert has never lost to Scotland in 5 attempts, although he has only faced the dark blues once since 2015.

– The last time Alun Wyn Jones wasn’t involved in a Scotland v Wales match at Murrayfield – way back in 2005 – the starting locks were Stuart Grimes and Scott Murray v Brent Cockbain and Robert Sidoli.