Scotland travel to Wales this weekend for their third weekend of back to back international test matches, under the new Six Nations format where nobody gets a breather.
Scotland have a fairly major history of failing to back up big wins against England with the next result invariably being a loss (Wales being the spoilsports as recently as 2021 and 2022). Wales are undeniably looking like the weakest team in the Six Nations at the moment, but that does not mean Scotland cannot make themselves look like complete idiots by losing to them. Let’s not forget, wins in Cardiff are still a pretty new thing for Scotland.
Wales also have the recent advantage that Steve Tandy knows Scotland’s players very well indeed, having coached them for a number of years.
Scotland last 10 games against Wales
Scotland last 10 games away from home against Wales
In anticipation of potential slip-ups, Gregor Townsend has named arguably the strongest team yet for round three, with a return for Duhan van der Merwe the big news. He comes in on the left wing for Jamie Dobie (shoulder) and Blair Kinghorn returns at fullback.
In the pack Gregor Brown has moved from the from the second row into blind side flanker to replace Jamie Ritchie (knee) and Max Williamson joins Scott Cummings in the boilerhouse. Grant Gilchrist returns on the bench, and his inclusion may not be to do with lineout issues but could be to do with his ability to bolster the scrum if it struggles as it did last weekend.
Matt Fagerson moves to Number 8 for the injured Jack Dempsey (bicep), while on the bench Townsend again opts for a 5:3 split with Horne, Jordan and Darcy offering excitement for the attack and the usual names in the pack. Also interestingly, George Turner has been rotated at hooker with Dave Cherry the housewives favourite getting the start.
Scotland record with Matthew Carley as referee
There are must win games and must win games. This falls in between: it’s a must win to retain the credibility restored by the Calcutta Cup win, and for the fans to believe in their team. Lose though, and what will really happen? We’ll end up somewhere between 4th and 6th like we all thought anyway. And Townsend will still have his job.
We could end up there anyway, that’s how close the tournament is these days. But a decent win and the try bonus already collected against England could be really helpful if we are actually aiming at, say, third. In short, despite the travesty in Rome, Scotland is in a good position and must show they are ready to capitalise on it.
Wales: Louis Rees-Zammit, Gabriel Hamer-Webb, Eddie James, Joe Hawkins, Josh Adams, Sam Costelow, Tomos Williams; Rhys Carre, Dewi Lake (capt), Tomas Francis, Dafydd Jenkins, Ben Carter, Taine Plumtree, Alex Mann, Aaron Wainwright.
Replacements: Ryan Elias, Nicky Smith, Archie Griffin, Freddie Thomas, James Botham, Kieran Hardy, Jarrod Evans, Blair Murray.
Scotland: Blair Kinghorn, Kyle Steyn, Huw Jones, Sione Tuipulotu (capt), Duhan van der Merwe, Finn Russell, Ben White; Nathan McBeth, Dave Cherry, Zander Fagerson, Max Williamson, Scott Cummings, Gregor Brown, Rory Darge, Matt Fagerson.
Replacements: George Turner, Pierre Schoeman, Elliot Millar Mills, Grant Gilchrist, Josh Bayliss, George Horne, Tom Jordan, Darcy Graham.