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Scotland v Tonga: Rugby World Cup 2023, Match Preview pt II – head to heads

Scotland vs Tonga

Scotland vs Tonga - graphic © Scottish Rugby Blog

8 of the Scottish 23 played when these sides last met in November 2021.

Unsurprisingly, there are very few returnees from a Tongan side that had a bit of a cobbled together feel post-Covid. Lock Leva Fifita and back row Tanginoa Halaifonua also started in that 60-14 defeat at Murrayfield, while veteran half back Sonatane Takulua (whose history with the Scots stretches back to a game at Rugby Park in 2014) will be on the bench this time round.

In fact, in the ʻIkale Tahi’s lineup for Sunday, there are more players who have played against (and beaten) Scotland for other nations than that trio who have previously featured against the dark blues in Tongan colours.

4 changes to Scotland’s starting XV from last Test (v South Africa)

No changes to Tonga’s starting XV from last Test (v Ireland)


BACK 3 – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND

Blair Kinghorn
Kyle Steyn*
Duhan van der Merwe
15
14
11
Salesi Piutau
Afusipa Taumoepau
Solomone Kata
2nd time this unit has started together for Scotland
42
101kg
95
4
28.2
Tries
Average weight
Total caps
RWC matches
Average age
8
102kg
41
3

31.5

The one tweak to the Scottish back 3 means that the two wingers who have been near ever-present in 2023 are back in tandem. Kyle Steyn has started 9 out of 11 Tests this year for Scotland while Duhan van der Merwe has started 10 of the 11.

The wide men who started against South Africa – van der Merwe and Darcy Graham – only managed 10 carries and 58 metres made between them. The dark blues will be looking for at least double the number of carries and at least 150m (more likely 200m plus) from the wings in what should be a far more open game versus Tonga.

Getting Blair Kinghorn involved could also be a big factor in taking some of the pressure off Finn Russell. The Edinburgh full back / stand off only made a single pass against the Springboks. While his kicking game combined in a very Stuart Hogg-esque fashion with Russell, Kinghorn needs to take on more of an extra distributor role to fully replace Scotland’s legendary number 15.


CENTRES – ADVANTAGE TONGA

Chris Harris
Sione Tuipulotu
13
12
Malakai Fekitoa
Pita Akhi
4th time this unit has started together for Scotland
7
105kg
65
5
29.7
Tries
Average weight
Total caps
RWC matches
Average age
8
101kg
39
4

31.2

This will be a tough test for the Scots pairing, taking on a current Top 14 champion in Pita Akhi and URC winner, Malakai Fekitoa. Gregor Townsend has chosen to mix up his duo – this will be the first time in 2023 that Sione Tuipulotu will play at 12 (for club or country) with anyone other than Huw Jones outside him.

Scotland’s inability to get Tuipulotu involved in the distributing side of the game was another contributing factor to the attack being smothered by South Africa. The inside centre would normally expect to have made 10+ passes in a game but only managed 3 versus the Springboks as his usual interchanging with Finn Russell at first receiver was stifled by relentless defensive linespeed.

Outside Tuipulotu, Chris Harris will provide a direct runner in attack to try and hold the Tongan line. His main contribution though may well be to try and shut down that classy Sea Eagles’ centre combination. Ireland were able to make Akhi and Fekitoa pretty much a non-factor in their encounter in Round 1 and as a result, Tonga’s backs never really got into that game.


HALF BACKS – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND

Finn Russell
Ben White
10
9
William Havili
Augustine Pulu
8th time this unit has started together for Scotland
11
90kg
91
9
28.2
Tries
Average weight
Total caps
RWC matches
Average age
3
89kg
17
2

29.4

The ball did get into Finn Russell’s hands 56 times against South Africa (37 passes, 12 kicks, 7 carries) but he was under so much pressure that much of his afternoon was spent dropping the ball off to a forward on a short carry and rarely getting the chance to launch the defence-splitting pass (or kick) that he specialises in.

It’s a conundrum that the Scots will face in 2 weeks’ time when they come up against an Irish pack that will slow their possession and whose defensive linespeed won’t be far off that of the Springboks. Sunday night’s opposition will provide a different threat but given the jeopardy in this game, in many ways, Tonga will be no less dangerous to Scotland’s World Cup ambitions.

Finn should have a bit more space to work so the key becomes his ability to make the best decision in each set of circumstances. If he gets it right the Tongan defence is likely to be picked apart. If he doesn’t, a stuttering Scottish attack will find the physicality of their opponents a real challenge to live with.


FRONT ROW – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND

Rory Sutherland*
George Turner
Zander Fagerson
1
2
3
Siegfried Fisi’ihoi
Paula Ngauamo
Ben Tameifuna (c)
5th time this unit has started together for Scotland
345kg
11
126
6
29.9
Total weight
Tries
Total caps
RWC matches
Average age
398kg
6
75
15

34.0

The November Test against Tonga in 2021 was the debut outing for what has become Scotland’s first choice front row of Pierre Schoeman, George Turner and Zander Fagerson. Prior to Schoeman’s first cap in that game, Rory Sutherland had been pretty much unassailed as the number 1 loosehead in the first half of the World Cup cycle, with a run of form that took him to Test caps on the Lions’ tour of South Africa,

This will be just the 4th start for Sutherland in the dark blues’ last 22 matches, while conversely Schoeman will be unleashed from the bench for just the 2nd time in that same period, during which he has also started on 18 occasions.

Remarkably this will be Rory’s first ever RWC outing – he was a late call-up in 2015 but didn’t play and missed out completely in 2019. He will face an enormous test at scrum time in the shape of Tonga’s gigantic skipper, Ben Tameifuna. The tighthead averaged 51 minutes per start for his club, Bordeaux, during 2022/23 so he’s there for a good time, not a long time but if he can get the upper hand at the setpiece it will curtail Scotland’s options and provide Tonga with a great platform for territory and their own attacking ambitions.


SECOND ROW – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND

Richie Gray
Scott Cummings
4
5
Leva Fifita
Sam Lousi
1st time this unit has started together for Scotland
239kg
5
107
15
30.5
Total weight
Tries
Total caps
RWC matches
Average age
234kg
6
46
10

33.2

All four of these players spent last season in the URC with Glasgow Warriors (x2), Connacht and Scarlets respectively, so they will have plenty of previous analysis of each other’s games to fall back on. In defence, Richie Gray and Sam Lousi will be the workhorses, expected to get through plenty of tackles. In attack, Scott Cummings and Leva Fifita will be primary carriers, with their lock partners doing much of the donkey work clearing rucks.

As mentioned in Part 1 of the preview, both these sides had troubles at the lineout and how well their main jumpers and callers are able to solve these problems will go a long way to dictating how good the attacking ball is that’s presented to their backs on Sunday.


BACK ROW – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND

Jamie Ritchie (c)
Rory Darge
Jack Dempsey
6
7
8
Tanginoa Halaifonua
Sione Havili
Vaea Fifita
4th time this unit has started together for Scotland
320kg
6
83
7
26.7
Total weight
Tries
Total caps
RWC matches
Average age
338kg
6
45
3

28.0

This will be the 4th match in a row for the Scottish trio and that increased familiarity in game situations should hopefully mean that their performances continue to grow as the intensity of the fixtures reaches a crescendo.

Jack Dempsey – who has started 7 out of the last 8 at number 8 – has become the go-to carrier – and a very effective one at that. He needs some support though in order to spread the load and also to keep the defence guessing rather than being able to double up on Dempsey. Against the Springboks, Jack was the only forward to manage 10+ carries (Pierre Schoeman made 5 while nobody else made more than 3).

The 49 metres with ball in hand for the Glasgow number 8 ended up being the vast majority of the production in this stat for Scotland. His 12 colleagues in the pack who played some part in the match against South Africa only managed 16 metres combined. That’s simply not going to be sustainable, no matte the opposition at this World Cup. Carriers like Zander Fagerson, Scott Cummings and Rory Darge simply must be far more involved this time around, even if Dempsey continues to take the leading role.


REPLACEMENT FORWARDS – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND

Ewan Ashman*
Pierre Schoeman

WP Nel
Sam Skinner*
Matt Fagerson
16
17
18
19
20
21
Samiuela Moli
Tau Kolamatangi

Joe Apikotoa
Adam Coleman
Semisi Paea
Sione Vailanu
54 previous sub appearances by this group for Scotland
114kg
11
156
12
28.8
Average weight
Tries
Total caps
RWC matches
Average age
117kg
15
79
9
27.6

There should be plenty of banter flowing when Sione Vailanu gets on the pitch to take on his Glasgow teammates Jack Dempsey (11 starts together in 2022/23); Matt Fagerson (9); and Rory Darge (6). The giant back row has turned his excellent form for the Warriors into a deserved recall to his national side. Hopefully making Sione a happy and contented player doesn’t come back to bite Scottish rugby on Sunday!


REPLACEMENT BACKS – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND

George Horne
Huw Jones
Darcy Graham
21
22
23

Sonatane Takulua
Patrick Pellegrini*
31 previous sub appearances by this group for Scotland
41
88kg
99
9
28.0
Tries
Average weight
Total caps
RWC matches
Average age
6
88kg
46
9

28.9

Darcy Graham will make his first appearance from the bench (for either club or country) since March 2021. George Horne is in line for his 3rd outing as replacement in a World Cup for Scotland – no other player has made more as substitute scrum half (Rory Lawson and Chris Cusiter also 3).


Aggregates for the 23s:

134
2,430kg
822
67
28.7
Tries
Total weight
Total caps
RWC matches
Average age
58
2,533kg
388
55

30.1

* RWC debut
N.B. Appearances, tries etc. are for all capped internationals including those played for other nations or the B&I Lions


Miscellany

– At 692kgs, this is the heaviest backline ever named during the Townsend era (72 matches).

– 6 forwards from Glasgow as starters are the most for any game in the Townsend era. 1 Edinburgh forward being selected in the starting pack has only happened in 2 other games during this period.

– 12 players from Tonga’s XV plied their trade in one of the Northern Hemisphere’s top leagues (Premiership, Top 14 and URC) last season. The exceptions were half back pairing Augustine Pulu (Japan Rugby League One) and William Havili Super Rugby as well as back row Sione Havili (Super Rugby).

– The only members of Scotland’s original 33-man RWC squad not to be included in their opening 2 fixtures are tighthead prop Javan Sebastian, back rows Luke Crosbie and Hamish Watson, with Ben Healy the only back yet to make a 23. Stuart McInally joined up with the squad following the South Africa game and is likely to join that quartet with some involvement in the game against Romania next weekend.

– 13 of the Tongan lineup are aged 30+, compared to 6 over 30s for the Scots. WP Nel will again be the oldest man on either team to take to the pitch when he is launched from the bench.


If you missed Part 1 – previous meetings, scouting report and more – check it out here.

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