10 of the Scottish 23 were involved when these sides met at Murrayfield in November 2021. Duhan van der Merwe, Finn Russell, Pierre Schoeman, Zander Fagerson, Grant Gilchrist and Jamie Ritchie are the returning starters. 9 of the side have never previously played against South Africa at Test level (Darcy Graham, Sione Tuipulotu, Ben White, George Turner, Rory Darge, Dave Cherry, Scott Cummings, Cameron Redpath and Ollie Smith).
13 of the Springbok 23 featured the last time these sides met. 6 of the side have never previously played against Scotland at Test level (Damian Willemse, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Manie Libbok, Faf de Klerk, Marco van Staden and Grant Williams).
Only 6 of the 46 players were involved when these teams met during the 2015 RWC pool stages – WP Nel and Richie Gray for the Scots; Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Eben Etzebeth and Trevor Nyakane for the Boks.
6 changes to Scotland’s starting XV from last Test (v Georgia)
- 15 – Kinghorn for Smith [+]
- 14 – Graham for Steyn [+]
- 1 – Schoeman for Bhatti [+]
- 2 – Turner for Cherry [+]
- 3 – Z. Fagerson for Nel [+]
- 4 – R. Gray for Skinner [+]
4 changes to South Africa’s starting XV from last Test (v New Zealand)
- 13 – Kriel for Moodie [=]
- 12 – de Allende for Esterhuizen [+]
- 11 – Kolbe for Mapimpi [+]
- 8 – Wiese for Vermeulen [=]
BACK 3 – EVEN
| Blair Kinghorn Darcy Graham Duhan van der Merwe* | 15 14 11 | Damian Willemse Kurt-Lee Arendse* Cheslin Kolbe |
| 52 95kg 112 6 27.1 | Tries Average weight Total caps RWC matches Average age | 26 82kg 69 6 27.5 |
South Africa have historically used their kicking game as a real weapon to gain territory and possession in more dangerous attacking positions and this was a big part of their 2019 RWC win and series victory over the British & Irish Lions in 2021. Of the 5-man axis that dominated many of these contests against the Lions 2 years ago, only Cheslin Kolbe remains, with kickers Handre Pollard and Willie le Roux out of the starting XV and the king of the chasers, Makazole Mapimpi, not involved either.
There is a significant size differential between the 2 units, with the Scots averaging 13kg a man heavier and a height advantage in each of the primary direct contests:
- Blair Kinghorn 1.95m – 1.83m Damian Willemse
- Darcy Graham 1.76m – 1.70m Cheslin Kolbe
- Duhan van der Merwe 1.93m – 1.77m Kurt-Lee Arendse
The Springboks’ skillset in this area will lend itself more to counterattacking than launching kicks. This is something the Scottish defence has struggled with against high octane transition sides like France but equally, it may play into the dark blues’ desire for a looser contest, played away from the breakdown and setpiece as much as possible.
CENTRES – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND
| Huw Jones* Sione Tuipulotu* | 13 12 | Jesse Kriel Damian de Allende |
| 18 102kg 58 0 28.2 | Tries Average weight Total caps RWC matches Average age | 24 99kg 135 21 30.7 |
The preternatural understanding built up by Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones in the 269 days since they first played a game together for Glasgow Warriors will be put to the test against a pairing whose first start was more than 8 years ago and who will be featuring as a centre combo at a 3rd successive World Cup.
Huwipulotu is mainly about deception and creating space for Finn Russell – although Tuipulotu can bring the power when required. Kriallende is a steadier pairing whose aggressive defence will make life very tricky for the Scots as they try to shift the ball away from the Springboks’ pack.
It’s possible that the lack of distribution from their midfield could restrict how frequently South Africa can use the scorching pace of the ankle-breaking steppers they have in the back 3. Kriel and de Allende only made 5 passes in their most recent competitive outing (against Argentina in The Rugby Championship). For comparison, Jones and Tuipulotu threw 18 passes in their final Six Nations’ match of 2023 versus Italy.
HALF BACKS – ADVANTAGE SCOTLAND
| Finn Russell Ben White* | 10 9 | Manie Libbok* Faf de Klerk |
| 11 90kg 88 7 28.1 | Tries Average weight Total caps RWC matches Average age | 6 78kg 58 5 29.0 |
Until this year neither of these half back pairings had ever started together. In fact, in the South African duo’s case, they hadn’t started as a combination until 16 days before this game! Manie Libbok has played outside 4 different scrum halves in his 5 starts for the Springboks so far. Of course, he seemed to mesh pretty well with Faf de Klerk when they combined to guide their team to a demolition of the All Blacks at Twickenham…
The first 3 years of this World Cup cycle were all about Ali Price at 9 for Scotland as he took over from the retired Greig Laidlaw, with the Glasgow Warrior becoming a starting Lions scrum half in the process – the first Scot to do so since Roy Laidlaw in 1983.
2023 has been the year of Ben White though, with the former London Irish man starting 7 of Scotland’s 9 Tests. He has been paired with Finn Russell in 6 of those games and the understanding they have built up has to stand them in good stead if Scotland are going to take the game to the world champions.
FRONT ROW – ADVANTAGE SOUTH AFRICA
| Pierre Schoeman* George Turner Zander Fagerson | 1 2 3 | Steven Kitshoff Malcolm Marx Frans Malherbe |
| 350kg 14 119 4 29.3 | Total weight Tries Total caps RWC matches Average age | 367kg 20 202 25 31.1 |
The Pierre Schoeman / Zander Fagerson double act has been very much the first-choice propping pair since Schoeman’s debut in October 2021. Their 3rd outing together (with Stuart McInally at hooker) was against a Springboks’s side with very similar front row personnel to Sunday’s fixture. Jamie Bhatti and Oli Kebble were the Scottish bench props on a day that the dark blues conceded a disheartening 5 scrum penalties.
The coaching staff will be hoping that another couple of years working with scrum coach Pieter de Villiers – plus the availability of WP Nel as replacement tighthead – has closed some of the gap on South Africa in this area. If pretty much every scrum becomes a guaranteed penalty to the Springboks then it will be extremely hard for the Scots to execute the kind of gameplan they need to in order play in the right areas of the pitch.
SECOND ROW – ADVANTAGE SOUTH AFRICA
| Richie Gray Grant Gilchrist | 4 5 | Eben Etzebeth Franco Mostert |
| 244kg 4 140 15 33.6 | Total weight Tries Total caps RWC matches Average age | 229kg 8 180 21 32.3 |
Even the experienced South Africans can’t match the serious veteran status of Scotland’s lock pairing – there won’t be much this quartet haven’t seen and done in a collective 41 years of playing Test rugby! Richie Gray and Eben Etzebeth first went head to head at this level more than a decade ago in November 2012 – although Gray only lasted 22 minutes in a match that Scotland lost 21-10.
Jonny’s brother is the only one of the 46 players to have played in a game between these two sides where the dark blues emerged victorious. Way back in 2010, the elder Gray was making just his second start for Scotland when Dan Parks’ boot edged his team to a 21-17 win. A dozen years have passed and this will be Richie’s 4th attempt to match that victory.
There will be plenty of graft from this area for both teams. The South African duo will be the more aggressive, particularly around the breakdown. With neither Gray nor Gilchrist having particularly significant carrying duties, the biggest contribution they can make will be just to try and nullify the impact of their second row counterparts at ruck and maul. The Scots also need to find a way to win the lineout battle, providing a secure stream of possession and, in an ideal world, at least a couple of steals on Springbok throws.
BACK ROW – ADVANTAGE SOUTH AFRICA
| Jamie Ritchie (c) Rory Darge* Jack Dempsey | 6 7 8 | Siya Kolisi (c) Pieter-Steph du Toit Jasper Wiese* |
| 320kg 5 66 2 26.7 | Total weight Tries Total caps RWC matches Average age | 343kg 18 171 19 30.4 |
The two captains will both wear the 6 shirt, although due to South Africa’s ‘unique’ numbering system, Siya Kolisi will be in direct opposition to openside Rory Darge rather than his fellow skipper, Jamie Ritchie.
The only real surprise in any of the 6 players selected in this area was Jasper Wiese edging out Duane Vermeulen from the unit that started South Africa’s last World Cup match (the small matter of a win in the final against England). The Leicester Tiger had been alternating with his more experienced colleague throughout 2023 but, until this point, was picking up his starts in the slightly lesser games or matches featuring rotation. There won’t be any drop off in power though and the younger man’s voluminous work rate will mean his Scottish opponents will spend much of the afternoon having to find ways to chop him down after yet another carry.
Scotland’s back row has only really come together in the last couple of months but they have the potential to be an outstanding group. Ritchie and Darge have to slow and steal South African ball. Both will be wary of how Angus Gardner views body height at the ruck after fellow Australian, Nic Berry’s interpretation against France a couple of weeks ago. Darge in particular was pinged when in a position that has won him numerous penalties from northern hemisphere refs.
REPLACEMENT FORWARDS – ADVANTAGE SOUTH AFRICA
| Dave Cherry* Jamie Bhatti* WP Nel Scott Cummings Matt Fagerson* | 16 17 18 19 20 21 | Bongi Mbonambi Ox Nche* Trevor Nyakane RG Snyman Marco van Staden* Duane Vermeulen |
| 113kg 11 164 13 30.4 | Average weight Tries Total caps RWC matches Average age | 114kg 18 257 32 31.5 |
Scotland’s very own ‘Bam Squad’ have been regular go-to’s from the bench and have plenty of experience filling these roles. It’s a bit different when it’s the Springboks though, coming up against a backup front row with enough quality that they would start for most other nations.
WP Nel’s performance could be crucial in containing South Africa’s replacements. He will become the oldest player to feature for Scotland at a Rugby World Cup when he is sprung from the bench. The veteran prop will be aged 37 years and 134 days, taking over the record previously held by Norrie Rowan (35 years and 259 days when he played against Romania in 1987). If WP gets tired of the young fellas talking TikToks he could always warm up with another 37 year old (and fellow Free State Cheetahs alumni) Duane Vermeulen.
REPLACEMENT BACKS – ADVANTAGE SOUTH AFRICA
| Ali Price Cameron Redpath* Ollie Smith* | 21 22 23 | Grant Williams* Willie le Roux |
| 6 90kg 76 1 25.7 | Tries Average weight Total caps RWC matches Average age | 10 85kg 93 12 30.6 |
Stretching any rational boundaries to breaking point while looking for positive signs for Scotland it’s possible to alight on the unalterable fact that South Africa have lost on the last 2 occasions that Willie le Roux has been a sub rather than a starter.
The Bulls’ full back was also named in the 23 shirt for his side’s warm-up against New Zealand but was the late withdrawal that led to the 7-1 bench. Would the thrashing meted out by the Springboks have taken place if the le Roux curse (as no one is calling it) had been in effect? Or has his absence prevented him from breaking the sequence, making it 3rd time unlucky and essentially guaranteeing a Scotland victory?!?
Aggregates for the 23s:
| 121 2,421kg 823 48 28.6 | Tries Total weight Total caps RWC matches Average age | 130 2,390kg 1,165 141 30.5 |
* RWC debuts: Scotland 11 – 6 South Africa
Miscellany
– 2 years and 4 months ago, 8 Scottish players were selected for the 2021 Lions’ tour to South Africa – a record number for the professional era. Only 3 of them will start on Sunday.
- Starters – Zander Fagerson, Finn Russell, Duhan van der Merwe
- Bench – Ali Price
- Extended RWC squad – Chris Harris, Rory Sutherland, Hamish Watson
- Retired – Stuart Hogg
– Since the introduction of the world rankings in 2002, Scotland have played against the 2nd ranked side on 19 occasions, winning just 4 of those games.
- v Australia W1, L2 (win came in 2012)
- v England W2, L1 (wins came in 2018 and 2021)
- v France L2
- v Ireland L2
- v South Africa W1, L8 (win came in 2010)
– 2013 was the last time that anyone other than Duane Vermeulen started at number 8 for South Africa against Scotland (Pierre Spies on that occasion). Zane Kirchner in 2012 was the last player other than Willie le Roux to start at full back for South Africa against Scotland. The last 4 encounters between these sides, dating back to summer 2014, featured Stuart Hogg v le Roux in the battle of the 15 jerseys.
– There are just 4 survivors from Scotland’s last starting XV at a World Cup – Darcy Graham, Finn Russell, Grant Gilchrist and Jamie Ritchie. Tighthead props WP Nel and Zander Fagerson have swapped jerseys from Yokohama while Blair Kinghorn and Scott Cummings were on the bench on that fateful evening.
– The South African matchday squad includes 10 players who started the last RWC final alongside 4 of the replacements from that game and another 3 players who featured during their run to the Webb Ellis Cup.
– The Scotland starting XV have shared 104 tries among them – the most by any side selected in the Townsend era.
– 32 of the players on show are from teams in the URC. 7 ply their trade in Japan’s Rugby League One. 3 play for Top 14 sides while there are also 3 representatives from the Premiership. Duane Vermeulen is currently unattached but spent last season with Ulster in the URC.
If you missed Part 1 – previous meetings, scouting report and more – check it out here.