KO 4.45 at Twickenham Stadium
Saturday 4th February 2023
Live on ITV1
It’s hard to overstate just how unusual the recent run of results between these two countries is. From the end of the Gand Slam game in 1990 until 2017, Scotland and England met 29 times with 3 wins for the Scots, 1 draw and 26 losses. Since 2018 they have played on 5 occasions with 3 wins for the Scots, 1 draw and 1 loss.
The dark blues’ win (in 2021) and draw (in 2019) came after their previous 9 visits to Twickenham in the Six Nations had seen 9 losses by an aggregate score of 340 – 134.
Scotland are aiming for back to back victories at the home of English rugby – which would be the same number of wins they managed at that venue in the previous 83 years. They are also looking for a third consecutive triumph over England at all venues which has only happened twice in the last 100 years.
There is also the chance to get the Six Nations off to a positive start with a Round 1 win for the third year running. Given how slow out of the gate the Scots have historically been in these tournaments the turnaround in recent seasons has been fairly remarkable.
Round 1 results for Scotland in the Six Nations:
- 2000 – L
- 2001 – L
- 2002 – L
- 2003 – L
- 2004 – L
- 2005 – L
- 2006 – W
- 2007 – L
- 2008 – L
- 2009 – L
- 2010 – L
- 2011 – L
- 2012 – L
- 2013 – L
- 2014 – L
- 2015 – L
- 2016 – L
- 2017 – W
- 2018 – L
- 2019 – W
- 2020 – L
- 2021 – W
- 2022 – W
England Scouting Report
A new broom?
Replacing Eddie Jones with a man who was Jones’ assistant with both Japan and England doesn’t immediately suggest a revolution. Given England’s resources though it’s very possible that Steve Borthwick doesn’t need to tear down the edifice and start again – in fact, the simple fact of not being Eddie Jones might be enough to reinvigorate an English setup that won the Six Nations in 2016, 2017 and 2020 as well as reaching a World Cup final and securing an historic (well it is the only one ever…) Autumn Nations Cup triumph.
That they then seemingly fell off a cliff instead of pushing on to greater heights possibly speaks more to the potent but short-term nature of the impact Eddie Jones’ style of coaching can have and, quite simply, how long players can tolerate him for (5 years Australia – really?!?)
Steve Borthwick has had minimal time to make significant changes – his short-term goal may simply to be to get his players playing at or near their potential and all pulling in the same direction. These are simple concepts but ones that can prove frustratingly ephemeral for many coaches. With the playing base available to him though, England should be in the top echelon of Test rugby alongside potential RWC winners France, Ireland, New Zealand and South Africa rather than scratching around with the next rank who can, by or large, beat most sides on their day but lack the consistency to be real contenders.
Fortress Twickenham?
It’s well established that, until very recently, Twickenham hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for Scotland. It’s also fair to say though that it’s not a ground that has been particularly welcoming for any visitors over the years. Since crashing out of the 2015 World Cup – after back to back losses in front of their own fans against Wales and Australia – England maintained an 89% win percentage at their home venue until the start of 2022.
Across 2019, 2020 and 2021, England won 16 out of their 18 home fixtures – no doubt all Scottish fans are well aware who accounted for the defeat and the draw to spoil the Auld Enemy’s perfect record during this period…The tail end of the Jones’ era brought with it some pretty dreadful form at the Cabbage Patch though with just a single victory (over Japan) in their last 5 home games.
Despite these recent struggles, no one should be under any illusion as to the scale of the task facing Scotland on Saturday. Twickenham remains one of the most difficult grounds on the international circuit for a visiting side to come away with a positive result. Ireland and South Africa have done it by blunting, in fact trumping, English physicality. Argentina just had to dig in, make their tackles and take every scoring opportunity when it came along. Scotland v2021 used an astute tactical kicking game to pressurise their hosts. What will Scotland v2023 bring to the table? If rumours are to be believed it will be Russell + Huwipulotu and the potential for an absolutely banging attacking game…
Miscellaneous
- Against South Africa, the English scrum conceded 9 penalties or free kicks – Steve Borthwick seems to have responded directly to those struggles by recalling veteran Dan Cole to steady the ship. Scotland themselves conceded some most unfortunately timed scrum pens in the Autumn – both sides will be eying opportunities to win the advantage up front.
- Billy Vunipola was comfortably England’s busiest carrier during the Autumn Nations Series. While the giant number 8 may not have been as dynamic as he was before, his work rate was still voluminous. With the younger Vunipola omitted from the squad this time round, there will be plenty of opportunity for other options to involve themselves in the game. With the likes of Alex Dombrandt, Sam Simmonds and Ben Earl available for the home side, the Scottish defence will have far more to think about than the straightforward (if admittedly very effective over many years) bashing up from Billy.
- After missing the 2022 Six Nations, Owen Farrell has played all 560 minutes of England’s last 7 Tests. England’s skipper will, barring injury (or a card…), be out there for the full 80 against Scotland – but will it be at 10 or 12?
Previous results
This will be the 12th time the two sides have met in London for a Six Nations’ match. The head to head looks like this from Scotland’s perspective:
L L L L L L L L L D W
England 6 – 11 Scotland
Significant stat
78 – the number of kicks from hand by the two teams. Scotland put boot to ball on 43 occasions – the most for any game in the Townsend era. This certainly wasn’t a case of kicking possession away though but rather winning the territorial battle (70% in England’s half) and pressuring the opposition into handing the ball back in advantageous areas (65% possession for Scotland). Many of the other key stats also point to a dominant Scottish performance (eg clean breaks to 11 – 0; tackle breaks 29 – 11; only 1 ruck out of 117 lost; 100% at the setpiece) that probably should have ended in a much more comfortable victory.
The Scottish Rugby Blog match report from that game is here.
Officials
Referee: Paul Williams (New Zealand)
Assistant Referee 1: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand)
Assistant Referee 2: James Doleman (New Zealand)
TMO: Brendon Pickerill (New Zealand)
Mr Williams has yet to preside over a Scotland defeat which is a positive – if entirely meaningless – omen. The Kiwi whistler had an annual appointment with the dark blues from 2017 to 2020 but, after taking charge of the last pre-Covid match v France, he hasn’t been sighted since in any Scottish fixtures. In that previous encounter, he did of course send off Mohamed Haouas after the French prop decided to test his fist against Jamie Ritchie’s metal cheek. This time round the Edinburgh flanker will be Scotland’s skipper – hopefully still annoying opponents but maybe in less incendiary ways!
Scotland’s last games with Mr Williams in charge:
- 2017 – beat Italy (N)
Penalties: 26 (For 17 – 9 Against)
Cards: Italy 2 YCs - 2018 – beat Argentina (H)
Penalties: 17 (For 7 – 10 Against)
Cards: none - 2019 – drew with England (A)
Penalties: 11 (For 5 – 6 Against)
Cards: none - 2020 – beat France (H)
Penalties: 18 (For 11 – 7 Against)
Cards: France 1 YC + 1 RC
Part II of the preview, including the head to heads, will follow on Friday after the team announcement on Thursday.
The Team
UPDATE: They snuck in early with the Toony Tombloa to end all Tombolas this morning: no Zander, Harris on the bench, Crosbie at 7! Here’s the team:
Scotland: Stuart Hogg, Kyle Steyn, Huw Jones, Sione Tuipulotu, Duhan van der Merwe, Finn Russell, Ben White; Pierre Schoeman, George Turner, WP Nel, Richie Gray, Grant GIlchrist, Jamie Ritchie (capt), Luke Crosbie, Matt Fagerson.
Replacements: Fraser Brown, Jamie Bhatti, Simon Berghan, Jonny Gray, Jack Dempsey, George Horne, Blair Kinghorn, Chris Harris.