Who exactly is going to be fit for the 2023 Six Nations? With the current injury list, Scotland rugby head coach Gregor Townsend faces a few selection headaches, and precious few of the good or interesting kind.
Here’s a brief sample of who is out injured as Townsend looks towards the start of the tournament in February and the opening Calcutta Cup game against England.
Which Forwards are Injured?
Hamish Watson and Stuart McInally were on Edinburgh’s current injured list as of Friday, while Glasgow list Scott Cummings (foot), Rory Darge (ankle), Allan Dell (calf), Zander Fagerson (hamstring), Oli Kebble (shoulder), Murphy Walker (neck), Ryan Wilson (knee). In the exiles, lock Alex Craig (Gloucester) is also out with a shoulder injury.
Some of those, like Wilson, are these days less likely to be in the selectors’ thoughts but certainly even some of the fringe props may have come into consideration as backups – or backups to the backups.
With Zander out there is a real worry over who will play tighthead (Walker and the converted Kebble might have been candidates). Murray McCallum is on a short-term trial for Montauban in French D2 but Javan Sebastian is fit, as is…Simon Berghan?
In the middle of the front row, aside from McInally all the other usual squad hookers seem to be fit although Fraser Brown may have picked up a knock in Glasgow’s impressive win over the Stormers at the weekend.
It seems likely Richie Gray may be able to continue his control of at least one second-row spot come the Six Nations, with either his brother or Grant Gilchrist (rested from Edinburgh duty this weekend) his likely partner. Sam Skinner is also back fit after an injury but only very recently, and while Scott Cummings is apparently also hoping to be ready he will be even shorter of game time.
The scenario where we have seen two or even three opensides turn out for Scotland all at once will be a distant memory. Those injuries to Darge and Watson may allow game time for some of the more abrasive 6/8s who so far haven’t had much of a look in at test level since Darge and Ritchie arrived on the scene, like Andy Christie or Luke Crosbie. There could also be recalls for Josh Bayliss or Nick Haining while there was at least news this week that Mish might be in full training again. A first-choice back row of Fagerson/Ritchie/Dempsey still looks likely.
Which Backs are Injured?
Edinburgh bear the brunt of this one, with several key men missing for club and likely country: Darcy Graham, Damien Hoyland, Duhan van der Merwe are all out as of this weekend.
With Stuart Hogg battling sickness and the lingering effects of both knee and heel problems in recent weeks, might we need an all new back three to replace the unit that demolished Argentina last time out?
From the above, it is likely that former skipper Hogg will still be a presence in the squad come hell or high water with a 100th Scotland cap on the horizon, but with a heel injury causing him to miss Exeter’s European trip to, um, South Africa next weekend, it is something that Townsend will at least need to consider. The question will be, is Blair Kinghorn the backup fullback or is he not?
On either side of Hogg the need for developing wing depth behind the undoubted first choices may increase the likelihood of call-ups for short on experience players like Rufus Maclean or using Blair Kinghorn there. London Irish speedster Kyle Rowe is still recovering from an ACL tear sustained 11 minutes into his first cap against Argentina in the summer. Townsend often springs a surprise in the, er, spring, so if you are a Scottish qualified winger playing down south, expect a call. Sean Maitland or Byron McGuigan, anyone?
One area of good news is the centre where almost all the centres – even Duncan Taylor at Saracens – are fit. Expect those who have also seen time in the back three (Kyle Steyn, Rory Hutchinson, Huw Jones) or both centre positions (Jones, Hutchinson, Sione Tuipulotu) to become especially useful to Townsend with Glasgow skipper Steyn also offering leadership skills. Jones and Tuipulotu are in rich form right now and it looks likely the starting centres will be some mixture of them + Chris Harris.
At standoff, Adam Hastings requires shoulder surgery at Gloucester and Ross Thompson is still on Glasgows’s injured list which means we’ll still be counting on Finn Russell – who by now must be officially 5th choice or so – to start in the 10 shirt. The recent news of Ben Healy siding with Scotland increases his chances for a call up much sooner rather than later to plug injury gaps.
Partnering the chosen fly-half, a group of Ali Price, George Horne and Ben White seems likely with potentially any one of them given the nod on match day. Former Ireland cap John Cooney has talked of throwing his lot in with Scotland, Jack Dempsey style, but would he be anything more than an admittedly very good stop gap through to the World Cup if one of the above three got injured?
Possible Squad
Last year the initial Scotland Six Nations squad consisted of 17 Backs and 22 forwards, so with that in mind (and bearing in mind some players may come back to fitness before the start of the tournament):
Jamie Bhatti, Pierre Schoeman, Rory Sutherland, WP Nel, Javan Sebastian, Simon Berghan
Ewan Ashman, Fraser Brown, George Turner, Dave Cherry
Grant Gilchrist, Jonny Gray, Richie Gray, Sam Skinner, Jamie Hodgson
Magnus Bradbury, Andy Christie, Jack Dempsey, Matt Fagerson, Jamie Ritchie, Luke Crosbie, Josh Bayliss
Sean Maitland, Ollie Smith, Blair Kinghorn, Kyle Steyn, Rufus McLean
Rory Hutchinson, Cam Redpath, Sione Tuipulotu, Chris Harris, Huw Jones, Sam Johnson, Mark Bennett
Finn Russell, Ben Healy
Ali Price, George Horne, Ben White
It is still going to be possible to field a team close to full strength, but it is as usual the bench where selection will get interesting. The race to match fitness of Cummings, Hogg and Watson will be of most interest if we hope to have a team fit to challenge for the higher spots on the table.
With attack coach AB Zondagh leaving for France (with immediate effect) and rumours in France that Toony himself may have applied for the post of French attack coach after the Rugby World Cup, it’s all adding up to a rather unsettling pre-tournament mood.
UPDATE: looks like Byron hopes to represent Namibia at the RWC!
UPDATE (17/1): Murphy Walker is confirmed to be out for a couple of months with his neck injury.