Italy v Scotland: Six Nations 2022, Match Preview pt II – head to heads

Eleven of Scotland’s XV played against Italy at Murrayfield last season as did 8 of the Italian starters. The home side’s changes from the last time these sides met in Rome are considerably more drastic though. Callum Braley and Niccolo Cannone are the only returning starters from two years ago and overall there are 18 new faces in the 23 from an encounter that saw Scotland emerge with a 17 – 0 victory.

Tale of the tape

BACKS
12   Tries   58
92kg   Average weight   93kg
90   Total caps   285
53   6N caps   146
26.0   Average age   28.7

FORWARDS
874kg   Pack weight   893kg
0   Tries   18
110   Total caps   212
62   6N caps   92
26.2   Average age   27.3

SUBSTITUTES
2   Tries   22
96   Total caps   174
52   6N caps   80
25.1   Average age   28.2

5 changes to Scotland starting XV from last Test (v France)

• 12 – Johnson for Tuipulotu [=]
• 11 – Steyn for van der Merwe [–]
• 2 – Turner for McInally [+]
• 6/7 – Watson for Haining with Darge moving to 6 [+]
• 8 – M. Fagerson for Bradbury [+]

Head-to-Head

Overall

Backs – advantage Scotland

Italy’s backs have maintained a perfectly creditable (well, for backs anyway) tackle completion rate of 84% during the championship so far. The issue has been the sheer volume of defensive work they’ve had to get through – 200 tackles attempted – compared to 113 for Scotland – leading to 32 missed and regular scoring opportunities for their opponents.

They won’t have to face the dark blues’ ultimate tackle breaking machine though with Duhan van der Merwe banned. The giant winger has had the number 11 jersey pretty much locked down since he made his debut in Autumn 2020. With Scotland’s Lions also unlikely to travel to Argentina this summer, opportunity knocks over the next five Tests for other wide men and Kyle Steyn gets first dibs. His work on kick chase, and in particular on kick offs, could provide some potent attacking positions for the Scots.

Forwards – advantage Scotland

After losing both hookers in quick succession against Ireland, the Italians have called up a rookie (Giacomo Nicotera will make his Test debut after just two starts for Benetton) and a veteran (former skipper Luca Bigi has more caps than anyone else in the Azzurri’s 23). Interestingly they will start with the new boy and then introduce the 40 capper from the bench – a decision probably based on this being Bigi’s first game at any level for nearly three months.

In the head to head contest, Scotland have again rotated their number 2 and number 16 and this time it’s George Turner’s turn to start. As mentioned in Part 1 of the preview there’s a strong chance that there will be plenty of lineouts so all four hookers are likely to have a big role to play. When he gets on, Stuart McInally will be looking to add to his record try tally with his first ever score against Italy. The Scottish maul will need to step up if they are to get back to their previous level of success with lineout drive scores.

Subs – advantage Scotland

Italy have gone with a 5 forwards / 3 backs split for the first time in this season’s Six Nations. Their forward subs have averaged 27 minutes played each (the same as Scotland) with a sixth replacement in those previous games allowing them to rotate more of their pack but they have chosen to eschew that option this time around.

The veteran WP Nel apart, the dark blues’ bench is built to lift the pace ever higher. This one could get a bit frantic with both sides desperate for a win. Adding Ben Vellacott in particular into the mix could make for an explosive final quarter if the game starts to open up.

Miscellany 

– Niccolo Cannone, Federico Ruzza, Giovanni Pettinelli, Michele Lamaro, Leonardo Marin and Ivan Nemer all played in Benetton’s victories against both Edinburgh and Glasgow in the URC this season with Marin scoring the winning points with time expired on each occasion.

– Between summer 2018 and the 2020 Six Nations, Allan Dell played in 22 of Scotland’s 24 Tests. This will be his first appearance for the national side since before the pandemic.

– The 13 forwards in the Italian squad have combined for just a single Test try – recalled hooker, Luca Bigi, crossed against Scotland at Murrayfield last season.

– Stuart Hogg will play in his 50th Six Nations’ match. Since his debut in 2012, Hogg has featured in 94% of the fixtures Scotland have played in the championship.

– In their last eight home Six Nations’ fixtures Italy have led for 2 minutes of game time (0.3%); been level for 58 minutes (9.1%); and behind for 580 minutes (90.6%). The 22 minutes it took Scotland to score in 2020 represents the longest period of Italy avoiding being behind during those matches.

– Looking back just four years to when Scotland beat Italy 29 – 27 in Rome the only returning players of the 46 from the matchday squads are:

• Italy – nobody.
• Scotland – Hogg, Russell, Price, Z. Fagerson, Watson, McInally and Nel.

– There isn’t a single player in the Italian squad who has experienced winning a Six Nations’ match. The pressure is on Scotland to keep things that way but their hosts will be throwing everything at this one…