Scotland v England, Six Nations 2022: Match Preview pt II – head to heads

There are just three changes to the Scotland XV that beat England at Twickenham last year (Darcy Graham for Sean Maitland; Sam Johnson for Cameron Redpath; and Grant Gilchrist for Scott Cummings). Conversely, Eddie Jones’ includes just six returning starters from the side that was second best twelve months ago.

Elliot Daly (in three different positions!), Maro Itoje and Tom Curry will be the only Englishmen to start the last three Calcutta Cup encounters. The Scots have seven players in Saturday’s XV who were also there in 2021 and 2020 (Stuart Hogg, Ali Price, Rory Sutherland, Zander Fagerson, Jonny Gray, Jamie Ritchie and Hamish Watson).

On the occasion of Gregor Townsend’s 50th match in charge of Scotland, will the superior consistency and cohesion that the dark blues have been building provide enough of an edge to win the day?

Tale of the tape

BACKS
62   Tries   50
94kg   Average weight   87kg
279   Total caps   234
135   6N caps   88
0   6N debutants   2
5 B&I Lions 3
28.4   Average age   26.5

FORWARDS
904kg   Pack weight   906kg
21   Tries   23
283   Total caps   218
120   6N caps   95
0   6N debutants   1
3 B&I Lions 5
28.0   Average age   26.6

SUBSTITUTES
26   Tries   36
148   Total caps   293
59   6N caps   134
3   6N debutants   2
0 B&I Lions 3
27.8   Average age   27.7

Changes

3 changes to Scotland starting XV from last Test (v Japan)

• 1 – Sutherland for Schoeman [=]
• 4 – Gray for Cummings [+]
• 8 – M. Fagerson for Bayliss [+]

Head-to-Head

Overall

Backs – advantage Scotland

Ali Price and Finn Russell will make their 20th start together for Scotland (of Russell’s 37 other appearances in the 10 shirt for the national side, 36 were alongside Greig Laidlaw and he had a single outing with Henry Pyrgos). The bromance also has plenty of history at club level too of course. Meanwhile, this will be just the third time in harness for the Ben Youngs / Marcus Smith partnership.

With heavy rain and strong winds forecast, neither set of half backs may be able to play the kind of open game they would like. The race will be on from kickoff to see which pairing can adapt the quickest and most effectively to what the conditions throw at them.

Forwards – advantage England

While it is Scotland’s Lions-heavy backline that has often taken the plaudits, their wins over England have been heavily influenced by taking the physical battle up front to their opponents. For too many years, Scottish packs were pretty passive and unable to live with the intensity of their more celebrated opponents.

There’s no reason to believe this English pack will be any less aggressive or relentless than those that have gone before. What the Scots have to show again, is that they are able to live with that ferocity and even win some of the key battles. Fronting up in the forwards in games like this is also crucial for developing the kind of mindset that can challenge South Africa and Ireland during the RWC pool stages in a little over 19 months’ time.

Subs – advantage England

There are some gnarled veterans to come off the bench and shore up the scrum late on. Between them, WP Nel and Joe Marler have played more than 600 top level games for their clubs and countries. In fact all six front row replacements are heavyweight presences and, given the expected conditions, the setpiece battle late on could prove crucial.

Miscellany

– The 7 Test-capped Lions in Scotland’s starting XV are the most for the national side in any game during the professional era.

– The Scottish backline for this fixture has started 4 out of the last 6 Tests (South Africa – same lineup bar Rufus McLean for Darcy Graham and Matt Scott for Sam Johnson; Tonga – the 4 Exiles were not available).

– 20 of the Scottish 23 have previous experience of lifting the Calcutta Cup. Remarkably that’s more than the 11 Englishman on the opposing side who have done the same. Changed days indeed from just before kick off at Murrayfield on 2018 when not one of the Scots on show had ever won the famous old trophy while 22 out of 23 of their opponents were past Calcutta Cup victors.

– Nearly two thirds of the way through the 2023 World Cup cycle, England have just 3 players aged 30 or older in their lineup (1 starter and 2 subs). Scotland have 5 in the 30+ bracket (3 starters and 2 subs).

– Excluding fixtures against Italy, England have only won 2 of their last 9 away games in the Six Nations. Prior to that, they had won 8 out of their previous 11 such matches between 2012 and 2017.

– Maro Itoje has a winning record versus 10 of the 13 nations he has faced at Test level. There are just 3 sides against who he has a 50:50 or worse record – South Africa (44% win percentage); New Zealand (50%) and Scotland (50%).