KO 4.45 at Murrayfield
Saturday 5th February 2022
Live on BBC1
As the Six Nations kicks off, Scotland are looking for their third win against England in the last five tournaments. To put that into context this would be the same number of victories over the Auld Enemy that the dark blues managed in the previous 27 iterations of the championship. Scotland have not won back to back matches against the English since the fixtures in 1983 and 1984.
Scotland’s Calcutta Cup wins (12) and draws (5) in the last 50 years:
- 2021 – won at Twickenham
- 2019 – drew at Twickenham
- 2018 – won at Murrayfield
- 2010 – drew at Murrayfield
- 2008 – won at Murrayfield
- 2006 – won at Murrayfield
- 2000 – won at Murrayfield
- 1990 – won at Murrayfield
- 1989 – drew at Twickenham
- 1986 – won at Murrayfield
- 1984 – won at Murrayfield
- 1983 – won at Twickenham
- 1982 – drew at Murrayfield
- 1979 – drew at Twickenham
- 1976 – won at Murrayfield
- 1974 – won at Murrayfield
- 1972 – won at Murrayfield
England Scouting Report
Tenacious D
Scotland dominated the last Calcutta Cup encounter between these sides. 65% possession. 70% territory. 11 clean breaks to nil. 29 tackle breaks to 11. There are very few games in the Townsend era that come close to these kind of numbers. Ultimately though the gap on the scoreboard was narrow enough that one error at the end and England could still have come out victorious.
To put it plainly, Eddie Jones’ side were pretty dreadful in the opening fixture last year but, as a team built in their coach’s own image, even then they remained tenacious, obdurate and hard to subdue. The Scots can point to some of their own inaccuracies but despite almost nothing working for them, England still kept making the hits and challenging every facet of the game with their physicality.
It’s highly unlikely that the visitors will be as poor this time round. With Marcus Smith running the show the threats will be varied and tough to defend. Even so, the fundamental test for Gregor Townsend’s men will still be maintaining their own standards in the face of an onslaught – England are ‘coming to get Scotland’ after all. If the home side can live with their visitors’ relentless physicality (something they struggled with in the autumn against South Africa) it will be game on.
The Only Discipline Is Indiscipline
Last season at Twickenham, England conceded 15 penalties in their defeat to Scotland. Against South Africa in the Autumn Nations Series that number crept up to 18. Their tally of 67 for the last Six Nations was the equal worst record alongside Italy – and 20 more than both France and Ireland conceded. Maro Itoje (12) and Mako Vunipola (9) were right at the top of the tree for individual penalty counts.
Scotland themselves have been pretty solid in this area. Two poorish games against France apart (16 pens at Murrayfield in 2020 and 15 at Stade de France in 2021 – both still wins though) the dark blues are averaging in single digits for penalties conceded across the last couple of years.
The Scots need to pressure England at every turn to try and stimulate this thread of indiscipline that has run through most of the recent games where the visitors have been tested. Meanwhile Scotland themselves need to keep their noses clean and maintain their recent solid streak in the crime count.
Miscellaneous
- England had to mix and match their props a bit but would still have been disappointed with conceding 10 scrum penalties in the 2021 Six Nations, the second highest tally behind Italy.
- The English made the fewest carries (502) and second fewest passes (666) in last year’s tournament. They may well feel it’s better to double down on this risk averse strategy though – they only made 454 carries and 590 passes while winning the 2020 championship.
- What might have been lacking in the 2021 edition was an effective kicking game. 5,496 metres kicked – the most in the 2020 Six Nations – became just 3,874 last season, behind France, Wales and Ireland.
- Henry Slade (13) and Tom Curry (11) ranked third and fourth highest for missed tackles behind a pair of Italians in 2021. Curry could at least point to the most dominant tackles in the tournament (7) in mitigation as he targeted the big hits.
Previous results
This will be the 12th time the two sides have played at Murrayfield in a Six Nations’ match. The head to head looks like this from Scotland’s perspective:
W L L W W D L L L W L
Most recent meeting in Edinburgh:
Scotland 6 – 13 England
Significant stat
79 – kicks in the game. That’s the most in any fixture during the Townsend era. It’s a close run thing though with 78 kicks in last season’s Calcutta Cup match. These sides even managed to squeeze 63 kicks in amongst all the tries in the 38 all draw at Twickenham in 2019! Even if conditions are conducive to running rugby it might be reasonable to still expect a fair amount of hoofing the ball on Saturday.
The Scottish Rugby Blog match report from that game is here.
Officials
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand)
Assistant Referee 1: Nic Berry (Australia)
Assistant Referee 2: Craig Evans (Wales)
TMO: Ben Whitehouse (Wales)
Scotland have a pretty good record with Mr O’Keeffe as referee – although this will be the first time they won’t be the ‘big’ team in the fixture. The Kiwi whistler has yet to experience a full noise Murrayfield on a Six Nations’ weekend. While he will no doubt be able to block out the helpful souls pointing out that every single thing he is doing is wrong, the influence of a partisan, noisy crowd is always likely to give the home side a bit of an edge.
There’s also the chance to impress next week’s ref as AR1, Mr Berry, will be taking charge of Wales v Scotland in Cardiff.
Scotland’s previous games with Mr O’Keeffe in charge:
- 2016 – beat Japan (A)
Penalties: 27 (For 16 – 11 Against)
Cards: Japan 2 YCs - 2016 – beat Argentina (H)
Penalties: 20 (For 11 – 9 Against)
Cards: none - 2019 – lost to Japan (A)
Penalties: 11 (For 7 – 4 Against)
Cards: none - 2020 – beat Italy (A)
Penalties: 18 (For 8 – 10 Against)
Cards: Italy 1 YC
Part II of the preview, including the head to heads, will follow later in the week, after the team announcements.
Scotland team to face England: Stuart Hogg, Darcy Graham, Chris Harris, Sam Johnson, Duhan Van der Merwe, Finn Russell, Ali Price; Rory Sutherland, George Turner, Zander Fagerson, Jonny Gray, Grant Gilchrist, Jamie Ritchie, Hamish Watson, Matt Fagerson.
Replacements: Stuart McInally, Pierre Schoeman, WP Nel, Sam Skinner, Magnus Bradbury, Ben White, Blair Kinghorn, Sione Tuipulotu.
England team: Freddie Steward, Max Malins, Elliot Daly, Henry Slade, Joe Marchant, Marcus Smith, Ben Youngs; Ellis Genge, Luke Cowan-Dickie, Kyle Sinckler, Maro Itoje, Nick Isiekwe, Lewis Ludlam, Tom Curry (capt), Sam Simmonds.
Replacements: Jamie George, Joe Marler, Will Stuart, Charlie Ewels, Alex Dombrandt, Harry Randall, George Ford, Jack Nowell.