Scotland v Australia: Autumn Nations Series 2021, Match Preview pt II – head to heads

It’s four years since these sides last met and there has been significant turnover in both squads. There are a combined 37 changes to the matchday 23s from that previous fixture. Michael Hooper is the only member of the Australian XV who also started the 2017 game between these teams at Murrayfield. Kurtley Beale and Taniela Tupou are the only other Wallabies who were involved that day.

Six Scots return from that 53-24 thrashing of Australia in the early days of the Townsend era. Finn Russell, Ali Price, Grant Gilchrist and Hamish Watson all started in 2017. Jamie Bhatti and Zander Fagerson were on the bench.

Tale of the tape

BACKS
57   Tries   32
94kg   Average weight   93kg
260   Total caps   156
28.2   Average age   26.0

FORWARDS
904kg   Pack weight   905kg
17   Tries   28
199   Total caps  375
27.4   Average age   27.7

SUBSTITUTES
68   Total caps   188
15   Tries   29
25.8   Average age   26.7

6 Scotland changes from last Test (v Tonga)

• 15/14 – Hogg for Steyn with Graham moving to 14 [+]
• 13 – Harris for Tuipulotu [+]
• 11 – van der Merwe for McLean [+]
• 10 – Russell for Kinghorn [+]
• 4 – Skinner for Hodgson [+]
• 5 – Gilchrist for Harley [+]

---

Overall

Backs – advantage Scotland

For various reasons, the heart has been ripped out of the Australian backline that won back to back matches against world champions, South Africa. Tom Banks, Quade Cooper, Samu Kerevi and Marika Koroibete all made big contributions in both of those games but won’t be involved on Sunday.

The absence of Cooper is particularly egregious. The extravagantly talented Ozzie pivot has never gone head to head with the similarly skilled Finn Russell. It was a clash that would have been pure box office but now it looks more likely than not that these two will never play stand off against each other.

Forwards – even

The battle up front is in the balance but could well decide which side wins the war. Dave Rennie has opted to start with his steady options at prop before bringing on the shock troops in the second half. The back row battle will be ferocious, although an awful lot of what is good about Australia will, as it has done so many times before, rely on the indefatigable Michael Hooper.

While Scotland cannot call on first choice lock pairing of Scott Cummings and Jonny Gray, bringing Grant Gilchrist and Sam Skinner back in is a big step up for the setpiece and around the park. They will have their hands full countering an aggressive Australian lock pairing though – and that’s before 140kg behemoth Will Skelton is sprung from the bench!

Subs – advantage Australia

While the 459 caps among the Scottish starting XV are the 2nd most for any game since the World Cup, the 68 caps on the bench are the fewest for any game in the Townsend era bar the fixtures against Canada (48) and Argentina (58) on the 2018 Summer Tour.

Miscellany

– Scotland have 6 Test-capped Lions in their XV – Stuart Hogg, Chris Harris, Duhan van der Merwe, Finn Russell, Ali Price and Hamish Watson. That’s the most in any starting lineup for the dark blues in the professional era. The previous highest tally was 5 in a loss to England in 1998 (Paul Burnell, Craig Chalmers, Alan Tait, Gregor Townsend, Rob Wainwright).

– Australia have won their last 5 games. Prior to this streak, they hadn’t managed more than 2 consecutive victories since Autumn 2017. They will be aiming to knock over Scotland to leave them with a chance in their game against England of equalling their record run of wins this century – 7 achieved in both 2013 and 2015.

– Scotland are going for their 3rd consecutive win against Australia, something they have only managed twice before in their history, between 1958-1968 and 1975-1982.

– The dark blues have scored 17 tries in their last 4 meetings with Australia – that’s the same number as they had scored in their previous 20 games against the Wallabies from 1982-2013.

– This game will be Romain Poite’s last international match as a referee. It will be the 72nd Test match of his career, the 13th involving Scotland and the 9th at Murrayfield. For those who like (potentially) good omens, the French whistler’s first ever Scotland game was the 9-8 win over Australia at Murrayfield in 2009.

– For the 3rd time in the last 8 games there is a perfect 5-5-5 split in the starting XV among players from Edinburgh, Glasgow and the Exiles.