This game will take place 539 days after these sides met at RWC 2019 and 937 days before they will clash at RWC 2023. Both sides stand at a bit of a crossroads with decisions likely to have to be made relatively soon on whether to push forward younger candidates in some key positions. Scotland have three over 30s in their starting line-up with another four on the bench. The position that stands out is tighthead prop and competition for the banned Zander Fagerson.
Ireland have five over 30s in their starting XV with another two on the bench. The big question has to be where do they go at stand off when Johnny Sexton calls it quits?
Tale of the tape
BACKS
57 Tries 68
96kg Average weight 92kg
272 Total caps 293
28.8 Average age 29.4
FORWARDS
887kg Pack weight 903kg
20 Tries 40
224 Total caps 345
27.5 Average age 28.9
SUBSTITUTES
139 Total caps 225
19 Tries 31
28.5 Average age 26.7
4 changes to Scotland starting XV from last Test (v Wales)
- 14 – Maitland for Graham [+]
- 12 – Johnson for Lang [+]
- 3 – Nel for Z. Fagerson [-]
- 6 – Ritchie for Thomson [+]
SCOTLAND
15 Stuart Hogg (c)
14 Sean Maitland
13 Chris Harris
12 Sam Johnson
11 Duhan van der Merwe
10 Finn Russell
9 Ali Price
1 Rory Sutherland
2 George Turner
3 Willem Nel
4 Scott Cummings
5 Jonny Gray
6 Jamie Ritchie
7 Hamish Watson
8 Matt Fagerson
16 David Cherry
17 Jamie Bhatti
18 Simon Berghan
19 Grant Gilchrist
20 Nick Haining
21 Scott Steele
22 Huw Jones
23 Darcy Graham
HEAD-TO-HEAD
ADV Scotland
EVEN
ADV Ireland
ADV Ireland
ADV Scotland
EVEN
ADV Scotland
ADV Scotland
EVEN
ADV Ireland
EVEN
ADV Ireland
EVEN
ADV Scotland
ADV Ireland
ADV Ireland
ADV Ireland
ADV Ireland
EVEN
ADV Ireland
ADV Ireland
ADV Scotland
EVEN
IRELAND
15 Hugo Keenan
14 Keith Earls
13 Garry Ringrose
12 Robbie Henshaw
11 James Lowe
10 Johnny Sexton (c)
9 J Gibson-Park
1 Cian Healy
2 Rob Herring
3 Tadhg Furlong
4 Iain Henderson
5 James Ryan
6 Tadhg Beirne
7 Will Connors
8 CJ Stander
16 Ronan Kelleher
17 Dave Kilcoyne
18 Andrew Porter
19 Ryan Baird
20 Jack Conan
21 Conor Murray
22 Billy Burns
23 Jordan Larmour
Overall
Backs – advantage Scotland
It might seem a little off to give Scotland the advantage over an Irish backline containing three British and Irish Lions. Scotland do have three Lions of their own though and Ali Price, Duhan van der Merwe and even Chris Harris have been drawing some Lions’ heat as the jostling for places on the 2021 tour that doesn’t tour reaches a crucial stage.
It is the stand offs who will be central to this battle – and much of the Lions’ chat. Finn Russell certainly seems to be getting much more respect from Irish quarters after maturing during his time with Racing 92. He’s still to really explode into this tournament though. A first ever head to head win over Johnny Sexton would go a long way to cementing The Muscle’s place at the head of the queue for the famous red 10 jersey his head coach wore 24 years ago.
Forwards – advantage Ireland
Across Scotland’s recent struggles against Ireland it has really been up front that the battle has been won – or more frequently in the dark blues’ case, lost. The Irish pack seem to have had their Scottish counterparts’ number for a good few years now. The best performance by the Scots came in Dublin last year when the forwards’ controlled ferocity rocked their hosts. It still wasn’t quite enough to come away with the win though.
The core of Scotland’s pack is the same as that game in the 2020 Six Nations. They know what executing that way felt like and how much work it took. That level of effort to overcome Irish dominance up front, allied to a more incisive performance from the Scottish backs, is possibly the only route to victory on Sunday.
Subs – advantage Ireland
Scotland’s depth has improved markedly in recent times but while the starting XV remains well covered, absences have started to bite somewhat when it comes to the bench. A replacement line-up of McInally, Kebble, Nel, R. Gray, Thomson, G. Horne, Hastings and H. Jones would have the advantage over the Irish selection.
As it stands, Gregor Townsend is likely to want as many of his starters as possible to go deep into the game while the Irish might be more willing to keep a regular supply of fresh legs trotting on to the pitch throughout the second half.
Miscellany
– This will be Gregor Townsend’s 43rd match in charge of Scotland – tying Ian McGeechan’s record for a single spell as head coach. Toony has 13 wins against Tier 1 teams – the most of any Scotland coach in the pro era. Ireland are the only Six Nations’ side that Gregor has yet to manage a victory against.
– Scott Cummings plays in his 20th consecutive Test for Scotland. The big lock has been ever present since his debut against France in August 2019 and this will be his 12th start in a row.
– Jamie Bhatti’s last appearance in the Six Nations was two years ago in this same fixture when he also came off the bench against Ireland at Murrayfield.
– And finally, the stat that gets dragged out every time a Scottish side takes on Johnny Sexton – and will continue to do so until one of them finally beats him! Sexton has played 35 times against Scotland, Edinburgh and Glasgow and has lost on just 6 occasions. It’s been more than a decade since the stand off tasted defeat against a Scottish side in a competitive game and he’s on a 21-match winning streak against those teams.
Missed part 1? Check it out here. Featuring the previous history between these two sides; Ireland scouting report; and Scotland’s record with M. Poite as referee.