Scotland v Wales, Six Nations 2021: Match Preview pt II – head to heads

Two years in Test rugby can make a significant difference to a side. Just 4 Scottish starters return from this same fixture in 2019 – Darcy Graham, Finn Russell and Ali Price in the backs with Jonny Gray the only survivor in the pack. Overall just 6 of the 23 from two years ago are still involved (Willem Nel and Hamish Watson the others who featured that day).

Wales aren’t quite as far down the road in their 2023 RWC rebuild and they have 11 players overall who played last time these sides met at Murrayfield (7 who will have started both matches).

Tale of the tape

BACKS
44   Tries   54
94kg   Average weight   89kg
221   Total caps  346
102   6N caps   146
27.2   Average age   27.8

FORWARDS
899kg   Pack weight   901kg
18   Tries   32
196   Total caps  518
78  6N caps   221
26.9   Average age   29.7

SUBSTITUTES
147   Total caps   80
71  6N caps  26
16  Tries  1
29.4   Average age   26.7

3 changes to Scotland starting XV from last Test (v England)

• 11 – Graham for Maitland [-]
• 12 – Lang for Redpath [-]
• 6 – Thomson for Ritchie [-]

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Overall

Backs – even

There are plenty of parallels in the personnel selected at scrum half and from 11-14 in the respective backlines. The real contrasts come in the key positions of stand off and full back. The Welsh 10 and 15, Dan Biggar and Leigh Halfpenny, will be rock solid performers no matter the circumstances. Their exceptional work in the air leads the charge for Wales’ kicking game.

Their opposite numbers are far more mercurial. There will always be some rough to go with the smooth when Finn Russell and Stuart Hogg are in action but with both men seemingly hitting the very peak of their careers, Scotland fans now expect the positives to substantially outweigh the occasional negatives. Finn had a settler last week to get him in the right frame of mind. Hoggy is just flying right now and looks to be loving his rugby.

Forwards – slight advantage Scotland

Scotland are missing a couple in the pack but, by and large, they look to have in place a group that will take them through to the next World Cup. Tournaments like this are about getting the troops battle-hardened. Summer and autumn games can be used for trying out options and extending depth.

The Welsh are more likely to struggle to nurse this group of forwards through to France in 2023. It may be that for some of them the possibility of this summer’s Lions’ tour presents the opportunity for a top level swan song. How Wales’ starting pack respond to a 6-day turnaround off the back of a huge defensive effort against Ireland could be key to how this match pans out.

Subs – advantage Scotland

Scotland have a solid group who performed really well in helping close out the game at Twickenham. Welsh resources are probably a little more stretched by their injury crisis but there are a few names on the bench who could be a big part of the starting side for Wales in years to come.

Miscellany

–  Gregor Townsend takes charge of Scotland for the 42nd time. Only Ian McGeechan (43) has been head coach for more matches in a single spell.

– Scotland probably need more offensive production from their pack in Six Nations’ games. The forwards have scored just 6 tries in 16 championship matches since Toony took over, compared to 38 bagged in the other 25 games during that spell.

– David Cherry, Scott Steele and Jaco van der Walt are all in line to make their home debuts for Scotland. At least there are two of them with plenty of experience of playing at a silent BT Murrayfield…

– Richie Gray has plenty of previous at the national stadium but it will be just a couple of weeks short of 4 years since his last outing. It was a good one though, as he featured in Scotland’s last home win against Wales in February 2017.

– Ken Owens has played 8 times against Scotland. He has been on the losing side just once (in 2017).