Scotland v Japan, RWC 2019: Match Preview pt II – head to heads

At this point in proceedings the teams will be preparing for tomorrow’s match as if it’s certain to go ahead so (ever the professionals…) here at the Scottish Rugby Blog we’re doing the same. With the teams named and less than 24 hours before kick off that means it’s time for the second part of the Scotland v Japan match preview:

Tale of the tape

BACKS
59   Tries   64
91kg   Average weight   87kg
279   Total caps   210
34   RWC caps   28
28.2   Average age   28.2

FORWARDS
907kg   Pack weight   875kg
15   Tries   43
226   Total caps   269
34   RWC caps   53
27.8   Average age   30.0

SUBSTITUTES
27   Tries   37
220   Total caps   209
30   RWC caps   33
26.9   Average age   30.0

12 changes to Scotland starting XV from last Test (v Russia)

• Darcy Graham, Tommy Seymour and Fraser Brown (moving from openside flanker to hooker) are only players retained from the starting line-up against Russia.

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Overall

Backs – advantage Scotland

Both sides are predominantly running with the backlines that kicked off their respective tournaments. Japan have been able to recall Kenki Fukuoka (who has 23 tries in 36 caps) after injury. 5 of the 7 backs will have started all their matches with William Tupou the other player to miss out.

Scotland have brought in Darcy Graham for Sean Maitland (it probably would have been Graham for Tommy Seymour but for Maitland’s injury) and Chris Harris for Duncan Taylor compared to how they lined up against Ireland in round 1. Harris (2 starts, 2 subs) and Graham (3 starts, 1 sub) will be the only Scottish backs to appear in all four pool fixtures.

It’s not common for Scottish backlines to have a physical edge on their opponents but that is the case here. While it may not be part of their normal gameplan it would be a surprise if Finn Russell and his troops don’t explore how being a bit more direct at times benefits them.

Forwards – advantage Scotland

Six of the Japanese 8 started their first match against Russia with prop Jiwon Koo and lock Luke Thompson moving up from the bench that day. James Moore, Pieter Labuschagne and Kazuki Himeno have had a particularly heavy workload, playing all 240 minutes of Japan’s matches so far. The Brave Blossoms fitness has been exemplary so far with very little drop off towards the end of games but can they sustain that through another 80 minutes?

Some of Scotland’s forwards had a run out against Russia and just 4 days rest. Gregor Townsend will be hoping careful management of their minutes and workload has minimised any impact. Half of the pack didn’t play at all so the quick turnaround should provide few excuses for lacking energy or intensity. Fraser Brown and Stuart McInally swapping shirts is the only change in the tight 5 from the tournament opener against Ireland. The back row is completely transformed though. The Bradbury / Ritchie / Thomson unit put in a strong all-round performance against Samoa and Scotland will need an even bigger effort if they are to combat Japan’s excellent loose trio in this fixture.

Scotland have a height advantage in every position across the back 5 of the pack. In Thomson they have a genuine third lineout option that Japan lack. The RWC hosts will undoubtedly find some creative ways to make up for this but it means Scotland have more options for winning and attacking from their own lineouts. They also need to be aggressive in trying to disrupt or steal Japanses throw-ins.

Subs – advantage Scotland

Gregor Townsend will feel pretty comfortable when he looks at his bench options with half a dozen of them making a case for selection in the starting lineup. This greater depth is one of the reasons Scotland have been able to improve to a winning ratio in excess of 50% in recent years. The next step (more wins against the top 8 teams in the world) requires even more excellence in the starting XV so the young players in particular who are pushing for places need to be better than the men they will replace during the next RWC cycle for the dark blues to keep progressing.

Miscellany

– The day after his birthday Greig Laidlaw will just the second male player to start at scrum half for Scotland aged 34 or older. The only other man to do it was Greig’s uncle Roy. The junior Laidlaw will be the 6th back aged over 34 to start for the dark blues. Oldest appearances for the other 5 members of this club:

• Alan Tait – 35y 114d (centre v New Zealand, 1999) [also as a wing – 34y 142d v South Africa 1998]
• Sean Lamont – 35y 29d (wing v Wales, 2016)
• Roy Laidlaw – 34y 152d (scrum half v England, 1988)
• Keith Robertson – 34y 103d (wing v South Africa, 1989)
• Tommy Gray – 34y 56d (full back v England, 1951)

– Allan Dell will make his 20th start for Scotland just under 3 years on from his debut. He only made 21 starts for Edinburgh in his 5 seasons at the club.

– Scotland’s forwards didn’t miss a single tackle against Russia going 68/0. This will be a much harder test but getting as close as possible to 100% tackle completion has to be the goal.

– Only 2 players have won more caps than Tommy Seymour (55) for Scotland without making a single appearance from the bench – Gavin Hastings and Tom Smith (both 61).