Signs of progress
Two rounds over and ultimately there are 2 defeats from 2 on the board for Scotland in the World Rugby U20 Championship after going down 43-19 to South Africa and 52-33 to New Zealand. That only tells part of the story though. Given the dark blues have never beaten either of these countries at U20 level there has to be an element of the manner of the losses that is judged as well as the overall outcome.
Previous results against South Africa in the U20 Championship:
2008: lost 3 – 72
2010: lost 0 – 73
2011: lost 0 – 33
2014: lost 5 – 61 **
For Scotland this year’s encounter with the Junior Springboks represents:
- Smallest margin of defeat;
- More points scored than in 4 previous matches combined;
- More tries scored than in 4 previous matches combined.
Previous results against New Zealand in the U20 Championship:
2014: lost 7 – 54 **
2015: lost 10 – 68
2017: lost 20 – 42
- Smallest margin of defeat;
- Most points scored;
- Same number of tries scored as 3 previous matches combined;
- First bonus point Scotland have collected (against either NZ or SA).
It’s worth noting that all this has been achieved while using essentially two different teams and giving debuts at under 20 level to five players. For the remainder of the tournament Carl Hogg will be picking his strongest XV and will also have more confidence in the extended bench (the full squad is available for each match) and their ability to come on and have an impact on games.
** As an aside despite losing to SA and NZ by a combined aggregate score of 115 – 12 during the 2014 tournament, Scotland’s squad has still produced 16 players who played top level club rugby – including 6 full Test caps. If a group that was so far off the pace of the top Southern Hemisphere teams can produce that many players are the prospects greater for this current batch who have come so much closer to SA and NZ?
Final round of pool matches
The number one priority for Scotland is to beat Georgia. Nothing less will do if there is to be any chance of avoiding the relegation playoffs. After that it’s a case of watching the remaining games and hoping to finish ahead of one of the 3rd place teams in the other two pools.
These are the key scenarios that could put Scotland into the middle tier of the playoffs.
Scotland win with no try bonus point.
To finish ahead of 3rd place in Pool A, Scotland need:
– Italy to lose to Ireland; and
– England (no BP) to lose to Australia.
To finish ahead of 3rd place in Pool B, Scotland need:
– Wales (no BP) to lose to Fiji (no BP).
– If Fiji get the BP then Scotland need to beat Georgia by more than Fiji beat Wales.
Scotland win with a try bonus point.
To finish ahead of 3rd place in Pool A, Scotland need:
– Ireland (no BP) to lose to Italy (no BP)
or
– Italy to lose to Ireland; and
– England (max 1 BP) to lose to Australia.
To finish ahead of 3rd place in Pool B, Scotland need:
– Wales (max 1 BP) to lose to Fiji.
Wales losing to Fiji would be a massive shock so it would seem Scotland’s most likely route to the 5th to 8th playoffs requires England to drop into the bottom tier of the tournament! The dark blues would then be grouped with (probably) Wales, Ireland and Argentina with the pressure off and the chance to really enjoy themselves.
If Scotland fail to beat Georgia (or if other results don’t go their way) then they will join the 9th to 12th playoffs. Most likely these will be contested against Georgia, Italy and Fiji. The side that finishes last (ie loses both of their playoff matches) will be relegated to the World Rugby U20 Trophy for next season.
Team for final pool match
After making 12 changes for Scotland’s second match against New Zealand, Carl Hogg has reverted to the starting XV that opened the tournament against South Africa.
With 119 previous caps at this level it’s not far off the most experienced selection the head coach could have made (128 caps). There was the option to add a bit more beef to the pack which weighs in at 851kg – but could have been as heavy as 873kg. The team picked balances trying to front up to a sizeable Georgian side while trying to keep playing in the expansive Scottish style.
Scotland U20 team to face Georgia U20: 15. Matt Davidson, 14. Rory McMichael, 13. Cameron Anderson, 12. Grant Hughes, 11. Jack Blain, 10. Ross Thompson, 9. Roan Frostwick; 1. Murphy Walker, 2. Ewan Ashman, 3. Euan McLaren, 4. Ewan Johnson, 5. Cameron Henderson, 6. Marshall Sykes, 7. Connor Boyle, 8. Tom Marshall.
Replacements: 16. Rory Jackson, 17. Andrew Nimmo, 18. Will Hurd, 19. Mak Wilson, 20. Ross Bundy, 21. Jack Hill, 22. Kwagga van Niekirk, 23. Murray Scott, 24. Teddy Leatherbarrow, 25. Nathan Chamberlain, 26. Robbie McCallum, 27. Ollie Smith, 28. Lomond MacPherson.
At Racecourse Stadium, Rosario in the World Rugby U20 Championship this Wednesday 12th June (kick-off 2.30pm BST / 10.30am local time) – streamed live on world.rugby/u20