Scotland v Argentina: Autumn Tests 2018 Match Preview pt II – head to heads

After the Springboks last week now it’s on to the Pumas. Not, in fact, the national animal of Argentina – that honour goes to the Rufous Hornero. Which sounds like the third Horne brother but is in fact the red ovenbird – rather less intimidating than the big cat that adorns the rugby team’s jerseys.

The national animal of Scotland is of course the unicorn. Something which neatly demonstrates that Scottish people can’t take anything seriously. So is the smart money on the warbling birds or the mythical pointy headed horses? Here’s how the nations they represent match up for Murrayfield on Saturday:

Tale of the tape

BACKS
50   Tries   51
93kg   Average weight   86kg
234   Caps   237
26.5   Average age   26.3

FORWARDS
897kg   Pack weight   893kg
13   Tries   19
182   Caps  326
27.3   Average age   26.5

SUBSTITUTES
133   Caps   269
19   Tries   28
27.7   Average age   26.2

8 Scotland changes from last Test (v South Africa)

• 14 – Kinghorn for Seymour [-]
• 10/12 – Hastings for P. Horne with Russell moving to 12 [-]
• 1 – Dell for Reid [+]
• 2 – Brown for McInally [=]
• 3 – Berghan for Nel [=]
• 4 – Gilchrist for Toolis [+]
• 6 – Ritchie for Skinner [+]
• 8 – Strauss for Wilson [=]

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Overall

Backs – advantage Scotland

Both sides are pretty reliant on their star stand offs. Since June 2016, when Argentina played their first proper Test match of this RWC cycle, Nicolas Sanchez has started 31 0f their 35 games at fly half (with another 2 caps from the bench). Scotland have also leant heavily on one man in this position – although Finn Russell has been slightly less ubiquitous, starting 23 out of 32 Tests (with no sub appearances plus this game at 12).

In this context Gregor Townsend’s attempts to reduce the reliance on Russell make sense. More than likely The Muscle will be the dark blues’ number 1 number 10 during the RWC but if form or injury intervene then Scotland won’t be staring a crisis in the face the same way that the Pumas will if Sanchez is not fit and firing.

Forwards – slight advantage Argentina

Part 1 of the match preview discussed the changes in the Argentinian scrum. Scotland forwards’ coach Danny Wilson will be expecting his charges to really take on the visitors at the setpiece. There’s no question that the Scottish pack will still be facing a dangerous opponent though.

More mobile than classic Pumas of old, the visitors will turn the breakdown into a real scrap if given the opportunity. A crucial factor in this facet of the game could be the performances of the two hookers, Fraser Brown and Augustin Creevy, and how well they support their respective back rows at ruck time.

Subs – even

Argentina have the edge in terms of raw numbers for the experience on their bench with more than twice as many caps as their Scottish adversaries. Scotland have a smattering of (arguably) first choice players to call on though and in George Horne a potential game changer at scrum half.

Setting aside the blowout when these sides met over the summer the average margin in Tests during the pro era has been 6 points. That means live games right to the final whistle and a crucial role for the benches to play in deciding the final outcome.

Miscellany 

– Byron McGuigan is the 32nd player Scotland have used during this season’s Autumn Internationals (16 forwards and 16 backs).

– 17 other players (10 forwards and 7 backs) were named in the extended squad at some stage but did not feature (6 of them due to injury).

Unused forwards: Ford, Turner, McCallum, Cummings, Ashe, Bradbury, Denton, Graham, Harley, Thomson.

Unused backs: Pyrgos, Weir, Grigg, Johnson, Lang, Scott, Fife

– Scotland have won their last 4 matches (and also 7 of the last 9) against Argentina at all venues.

– Josh Strauss is at number 8 exactly 17 months after his last start for Scotland against Fiji in Suva.

– There’s a first ever appearance on the subs bench in a Test match for Alex Dunbar – 5 years and 30 caps into his international career!

– 5 of Scotland’s backs have played stand off at PRO14 level or above. The backline is packed with highly-skilled decision makers with genuine rugby intelligence all over the pitch.

– Argentina’s reserve hooker, Julian Montoya, has 50 caps under his belt. 46 of them have come from the bench and he hasn’t started a match for the Pumas since October 2015.