Italy v Scotland: Match Preview Pt II – head to heads

After sweltering in Singapore last summer this is the second meeting for these two sides in the Townsend era. That game in Asia was notable for Ross Ford snapping his 87 Test scoreless streak – with a try double no less! Might Ryan Wilson or David Denton (with 74 caps combined) break their duck eggs on Saturday? And is Toony’s selection the right one to anaesthetise the Italians?

Tale of the tape

BACKS
16   Tries   59
134   Total caps   250
82   6N caps  125
25.0   Average age   27.5

FORWARDS
873kg   Pack weight   894kg
381   Total caps  284
186   6N caps   131
29.1   Average age   29.2

SUBSTITUTES
97   Total caps   189
44   6N caps   89
26.1   Average age   25.7

Scotland changes from last Test (v Ireland)

• 14 – Tommy Seymour for Blair Kinghorn
  [+] King Blairhorn may be the future for Scotland but Seymour’s aerial skills add another dimension in attack and defence.
• 12 – Nick Grigg for Peter Horne
  [=] a contrast in styles with the direct runner getting the nod over the distributor to take on the Italian midfield.
• 2 – Fraser Brown for Stuart McInally
  [=] a bit of a rest for Rambo after an excellent campaign and a luxury to replace him with a player of a similar standard.
• 3 – Willem Nel for Simon Berghan
  [+] Scotland’s first choice tighthead takes back his jersey.
• 4 – Tim Swinson for Grant Gilchrist
  [-] possibly brought in to counter Italy’s lightweight but aggressive lock pairing.
• 18 – Zander Fagerson for Willem Nel
  [=] he’ll have a different kind of impact from the bench compared to WP last week – guaranteed energy and abrasiveness in the loose from the elder Fagerson.
• 19 – Richie Gray for Tim Swinson
  [+] Jonny’s brother returns.

---

Overall

Backs – advantage Scotland
Italy’s wingers, Mattia Bellini and Tomasso Benvenuti, have missed 21 tackles so far in the tournament but, along with Matteo Minozzi they provide an attacking threat that was missing from Italian sides of old. The backline is still a work in progress though – with 5 of the players on 12 caps or less this is about building combinations for the 2019 RWC. Scotland have their first choice backs on show bar Nick Grigg – but it’s the pocket rocket who may actually end up being the key to unlocking the Italian midfield defence and getting his own wingers one-on-one with the aforementioned Bellini and Benvenuti.

Forwards – advantage Scotland
The famed Italian scrummaging power is a thing of the past, rendered relatively impotent by the updates to the scrum engagement laws and their own changes in personnel. A real issue now for the Italians is a rather old-fashioned mindset in their props’ play. It’s simply not possible for them to win games through their setpiece prowess but they are contributing relatively little around the pitch as well. The combined efforts of Italy’s starting and substitute props have managed just 6 carries per game with a little over 4 metres of ground gained (Scotland’s big men average more than double that return in both stats).

Subs – advantage Scotland
Scotland’s bench has been solid, although not really game-changing, throughout the championship. Having Zander Fagerson and Richie Gray available for the first time in this season’s 6 Nations is a big boost for the pack and will help the forwards get (or keep?) the upper hand late on. Blair Kinghorn should be flying after a successful first start last week and will hopefully get on early enough to strut his stuff.

Miscellany 

– There has been a huge turnover in players for Italy since Conor O’Shea took over. Just 6 of the Italian 23 that took on Scotland in Rome in 2016 return for this fixture – and 3 of them are the veterans Ghiraldini, Zanni and Parisse who are unlikely to play on beyond next year’s RWC.