Wales v Scotland: match preview pt II – head to heads

It’s crunch time for Scotland as head coach Gregor Townsend takes the reins for the very first time in a 6 Nations match. Ultimately, the success or otherwise in this tournament and Rugby World Cups are how his tenure will be judged – so does he have the personnel to whack the Welsh and get off to a flyer?

Tale of the tape

BACKS
38   Tries   48
167   Total caps   151
59   6N caps  68
4   6N debuts   2
26.5   Average age   26.4

FORWARDS
897kg   Pack weight   895kg
277   Total caps  182
106   6N caps   71
1   6N debuts   0
27.7   Average age   28.0

SUBSTITUTES
161   Total caps   214
57   6N caps   77
4   6N debuts   2
26.1   Average age   28.6

Scotland changes from last Test (v Australia)

• 15 – Hogg for Maitland [+]
• 13/12 – Harris for Horne (with H. Jones moving from 13 to 12) [-]
• 1 – Reid for Marfo [+]
• 3 – Welsh for Berghan [=]
• 4 – Toolis for Gilchrist [+]
• 8 – Du Preez for Wilson [-]

---

Overall

Backs – advantage Scotland
It’s essentially Scarlets v Glasgow in the backline. Even the outsiders have a connection – former Scarlet Josh Adams for Wales and ex-Warrior Byron McGuigan on the wing for Scotland mean Chris Harris is the only back without a direct link to either of the 2 clubs. Jonathan Davies is the big miss for the Welsh – even more so than Alex Dunbar / Duncan Taylor for the Scots.

The closest call of all is between two players who have taken to Test rugby like a duck to l’orange – Hadleigh Parkes and Huw Jones. A wee dip in club form for Jones – allied to some defensive issues and a positional switch – even things up against the 1-cap, 2-try Welsh centre.

Forwards – even
Have Scotland’s injury woes in the front row been slightly overplayed? There’s no doubt they are really stretching their depth on the bench but in the starting XV Gordon Reid was the man in possession of the loosehead slot before his own injuries; Stuart McInally has played himself into first choice at hooker no matter if everyone else is fit; and Jon Welsh is probably the equal of Scotland’s other backup tightheads in the scrum (although a wee way off top dog WP Nel).

The tight 5 certainly match their Welsh opponents for size (583kg for Scotland v 581kg for Wales) so then it comes down to technique and who can work the hardest. In the back row the visitors simply have to exploit the absence of both Sam Warburton and Taulupe Faletau – although the hosts can still field a very talented trio.

Subs – advantage Scotland
Front row aside Scotland can call some quality older heads from the bench with very little drop off from the starting selections. By contrast this is where the absence of 7 first choice players (compared to 3 for Scotland) starts to bite for Wales – if they are to maintain their intensity for 80 minutes then they will need some inexperienced players, including four 6 Nations debutants, to seize the opportunity to strut their stuff.

Miscellany