Scotland find themselves in an unusual position of having lost their opening game of the 6 Nations but still receiving praise for their performance with a handful of players making a number of “teams of the week”. Of course that may reflect on the falling standards of the French national team but the signs are this was a missed opportunity rather than the sign of yet another false dawn.
The second game of the tournament is arguably the most important, especially for teams that lost the opening game. Win and you are still in contention albeit relying on other results. Lose and you’re suddenly locked into the wooden spoon dog fight.
We’ve picked out the five things to look out for during Sunday’s game. The Scotland line up is at the bottom of the article. Let us know what you think in the comments and remember to play nice.
1.Discipline, discipline, discipline
Scotland’s discipline has been worse. Much worse. The issue against France was the field position where Scotland were caught infringing. Scotland were pinged far too many times in their own half and well within Camille Lopez’s kicking range. Scotland have got much better at playing the margins of the game but must be smarter about when to chance an arm and when to leave it.
They face arguably the best kicker in international rugby on Sunday and cannot afford to give away cheap penalties in kickable positions. The problem is that Halfpenny’s range means that a kickable position covers over half the pitch.
2. Ascendent Scrum
Scotland achieved parity with a strong French scrum on Saturday. It has been an area of weakness for Scotland for the past few years especially since the new scrum laws were introduced. It’s clearly an area Cotter has focussed on and at last there is hope that won’t be a constant source of opposition penalty chances.
Much has been made of Samson Lee by the Welsh press following a decent showing in the Autumn. However Lee had a quiet game against England and struggled in the scrum. He faded in the second half, although that could be attributed to his being concussed. Samson Lee has failed to recover from the concussion her recieved against England and Wales have been forced to make a replacement. Warren Gatland will be cursing his decision to cast Adam Jones out into the cold. Based on the two games at the weekend Scotland have nothing to fear from the Welsh scrum but they must attack it with the same ferocity as they did against France.
3. Witness Wales Fitness (One Hope)
The conditioning of the Welsh based Wales players looks poor. Wales had a good Autumn but the effects of the season have clearly taken their toll and the only stand out players in the second half were those based in France. Jonathan Davies in particular had a very quiet game managing to run only 8 metres with ball in hand. To put that in some context Euan Murray ran the same distance with ball in hand against France.
Wales started the game strongly and the first 40 minutes will be difficult. However Scotland’s conditioning appears to be excellent and if they can keep the score down in the first half then space will start to open up as Welsh legs start to tire. Conditioning is not something you can address in a week.
Webb and Biggar missed a number of tackles against England and Russell and Laidlaw should look to attack this channel. Further out Jonathan Davies looks like the weak link for Bennett to exploit having missed three tackles. In the forwards both Al Wyn Jones and Richard Hibbard were dropping off tackles offering the Gray brothers an opportunity to break the line.
4. Jump in the line
Scotland’s line out is almost back to its imperious best. Ross Ford has shrugged off whatever demons were plaguing his throwing and Johnny Gray has been a revelation for one so young.
Scotland have the ability to cause opposition teams real problems at the line out and the Welsh only managed to win 71% of their own throws against England. The stats also show that England lost two throws but that was down to internal problems within the English pack rather than Welsh interference.
The line out will give Scotland a real attacking opportunity on Sunday even if they don’t have the put in. As much as Scotland have started to develop into a real threat with ball in hand they would be daft to ignore an opportunity to test the weak Welsh line by sticking the ball into the corner.
5. Don’t stop believing
We’ve already touched on the Welsh fitness but Scotland didn’t let their heads drop against France and neither should the crowd. The Murrayfield atmosphere can fall a little flat when there’s little to cheer about on the pitch but Scottish fans now have genuine reason to believe in the ability of the players on the pitch. Maintaining a good level of noise throughout the match can only help lift the players on the pitch regardless of what the scoreboard might say.
Scotland team to face Wales: Stuart Hogg; Sean Lamont, Mark Bennett, Alex Dunbar, Tim Visser; Finn Russell, Greig Laidlaw (capt); Alasdair Dickinson, Ross Ford, Geoff Cross, Richie Gray, Jonny Gray, Rob Harley, Blair Cowan, Johnnie Beattie. Replacements: Fraser Brown, Gordon Reid, Jon Welsh, Jim Hamilton, Alasdair Strokosch, Sam Hidalgo-Clyne, Matt Scott, Grieg Tonks.
Not considered through injury: Adam Ashe (neck), Chris Cusiter (returning from knee), David Denton (calf), Chris Fusaro (ankle), Grant Gilchrist (arm), Tyrone Holmes (returning from face), Ruaridh Jackson (knee), Henry Pyrgos (knee), Tim Swinson (calf), Duncan Taylor (returning from hamstring), Duncan Weir (arm).